New Envoy Information
Big things are happening for Envoy. Management held a Q&A session today and provided the following information (borrowed from someone else's notes of the meeting):
Revised Flow/Upgrade numbers - AA has 600 newhire slots planned for 2016. 1500 AA newhires over the next 2 years is the plan. 300 Envoy flows for next year. 750 Envoy flows over the next two years alone. 205 upgrades planned now. Those are yet to be awarded and will be in class before the year (2016) is out. New hire upgrade/flow to AA now planned at 2.5/5.5 years. Additional 175's - Options are on the table, along with acquiring other existing airframes. iPads - iPads should be coming our way around March or April and will be individually mailed to the pilot's home address. We are currently fully EFB (ipad) approved but pilots have to provide their own ipads. Starting next year the company will be providing pilots with their own ipads for use. Envoy shooting for 345 new hires next year. (PM current Envoy pilots for help getting an interview sooner rather than later) Again, these notes are not mine but from others who attended the meeting. Whoever else was there please add to this information anything else you may have. |
Is this new news? I thought all of this (save for maybe the iPads) was already known.
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
(Post 2005680)
Is this new news? I thought all of this (save for maybe the iPads) was already known.
Also new which I forgot to mention: The 145s that were transferred to TSA and Xjet will be coming back as they go in for their heavy checks. And the flying we are currently covering for Republic will also be transferred to Envoy on a permanent basis. |
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Good to hear about all the hiring and how much is coming from the flow. If you're trying to get to American then on of the best ways will be through a WO.
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Good for you guys. Makes you wonder why Doug decided to transfer aircraft away in the first place?
I've heard several rumors about you guys getting additional 175 options, and I know that despite the new TA, things aren't looking great for RAH. PSA doing all the DCA ops and now you guys doing a lot of that RAH flying permanently. Perhaps a MIA satellite base is on the horizon? Anyway, over the next few years you will see more and more flying coming to the wholly-owneds. Not a bad place to hang your hat for a while. Do you know if that 1500 figure takes PBS into account? I've heard AA's hiring projections will go down with the introduction of PBS. |
So...almost half of the Envoy list will be gone by the end of 2017. It could be more if AA keeps increasing their projected pilot recruitment as the retirements continues.
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Just to clarify...they are JUST talking about excercising options on the -175s and/or getting -175s from other carriers. That's what I understood from the notes anyway.
-2016 flying is still being figured out. -The union has mentioned a couple of times of the -145s coming back as soon as next year, but it remains to be seen if they'll stay here or be transferred to PDT. |
Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
(Post 2005695)
Good for you guys. Makes you wonder why Doug decided to transfer aircraft away in the first place?
As for the 1500 new hire/PBS question: All I can tell you is that Doug Parker himself (and other higher ups) are the ones releasing this information. I don't know how PBS plays into this or not, but I'm sure Parker knows and has already adjusted that number accordingly. |
Originally Posted by N927EV
(Post 2005698)
Just to clarify...they are JUST talking about excercising options on the -175s and/or getting -175s from other carriers. That's what I understood from the notes anyway.
-2016 flying is still being figured out. -The union has mentioned a couple of times of the -145s coming back as soon as next year, but it remains to be seen if they'll stay here or be transferred to PDT. |
Originally Posted by N927EV
(Post 2005698)
Just to clarify...they are JUST talking about excercising options on the -175s and/or getting -175s from other carriers. That's what I understood from the notes anyway.
-2016 flying is still being figured out. -The union has mentioned a couple of times of the -145s coming back as soon as next year, but it remains to be seen if they'll stay here or be transferred to PDT. |
Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
(Post 2005695)
Good for you guys. Makes you wonder why Doug decided to transfer aircraft away in the first place?
I've heard several rumors about you guys getting additional 175 options, and I know that despite the new TA, things aren't looking great for RAH. PSA doing all the DCA ops and now you guys doing a lot of that RAH flying permanently. Perhaps a MIA satellite base is on the horizon? Anyway, over the next few years you will see more and more flying coming to the wholly-owneds. Not a bad place to hang your hat for a while. Do you know if that 1500 figure takes PBS into account? I've heard AA's hiring projections will go down with the introduction of PBS. RAH has to renegotiate their contracts with their mainline partners in order to support their new pilot contract. What happens wih that remains to seen. But, with WOs capped at 4/12 and Mesa providing a lot of eagle flying for cheap, I'd be very surprised to see dougweiser shell out more cash. Who knows, though. Maybe he'll have to this time around! |
Originally Posted by FaceBiter
(Post 2005712)
Get in my van little boyyyyyyzzzzzzz
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Heard Envoy will be getting 200NN thru 219NN back as well in a few years.
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Originally Posted by egl2fdx
(Post 2005717)
Heard Envoy will be getting 200NN thru 219NN back as well in a few years.
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RAH will be scaling back severely in ORD.
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Extremely minor but it was said at the meeting that 1 less aircraft will be transferred to TSA. More importantly, as of now those aircraft will only be at TSA and Express Jet until their next heavy check.
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how many jets of yours does tsa operate if there really coming back to you
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Originally Posted by livetofly2123
(Post 2005846)
how many jets of yours does tsa operate if there really coming back to you
15 XJet That would be 30 back. Also I think we sent them without any heavy checks, so time will be sooner. |
- 300 to AA in 2016 ? That's 25/month -or- if they move 30/month +/- as claimed, then there would be a couple of months AA didn't take any Envoy flows at all.
- 375 to Envoy in 2016 ? That's 31/month, but that assumes little outside attrition. Even with the flow, at least 8-10 pilots/month will almost certainly leave Envoy for greener pastures (Delta to hire 1600, UAL, Jet Blue, etc.) which is VERY conservative, we're back to a consistent 35-40 pilots/month new-hire requirement for Envoy next year. Now some are talking about acquiring MORE flying and even more jets (30 ?) then present ? Ok, then let's ramp that to 45+/month. It will certainly be interesting to see. :cool: |
Transfer of A/C to PSA/PDT update - only 4 CRJ's transferring in 2016. 175 deliveries will offset any 140/145 retirement/transfers. Net loss planned for all of 2016 will be 4 hulls. Previous plan a month ago was net loss of 6 for the year. Initially it was way more.
Minor, but keeping 2 more for 2016 than previously planned. Thats another 10 extra CA seats.. So basically the past massive bleeding of aircraft lost, cancelling out our flow and attrition (causing stagnation) has stopped, plus we should have 300+ flow and all other attrition next year. We will lose 400+ pilots next year easily if the the flow holds up and only have a loss of 20 CA seats for the year. Thats a huge amount of movement if you time it right. |
I'll add another, it is minor but AAG has requested 1 additional hull for the soon to be announced MIA satellite base.
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Word I've heard is that you guys will likely keep those 700s a while longer because the company is supposedly going to exercise more 900 options for PSA. I have a feeling that if we take delivery of your 700s, it will be at the loss of our 200s. Because by that time, I don't see how we (or really anyone) is going to be able to hire the amount of pilots needed.
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So where are the vacancies? And did the guys that got awarded on the last one started class yet?
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Originally Posted by Ar Pilot
(Post 2006042)
So where are the vacancies? And did the guys that got awarded on the last one started class yet?
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Originally Posted by Machwon
(Post 2006065)
I'd imagine with the holidays the vacancies are done for the year. Guys are already in class from the August one and we are still waiting for the flow plan from Oct, but I'm guessing those guys will be in dec-jan classes.
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2005926)
- 300 to AA in 2016 ? That's 25/month -or- if they move 30/month +/- as claimed, then there would be a couple of months AA didn't take any Envoy flows at all.
- 375 to Envoy in 2016 ? That's 31/month, but that assumes little outside attrition. Even with the flow, at least 8-10 pilots/month will almost certainly leave Envoy for greener pastures (Delta to hire 1600, UAL, Jet Blue, etc.) which is VERY conservative, we're back to a consistent 35-40 pilots/month new-hire requirement for Envoy next year. Now some are talking about acquiring MORE flying and even more jets (30 ?) then present ? Ok, then let's ramp that to 45+/month. It will certainly be interesting to see. :cool: 2017 should be another 375 to flow, but no more recalls; but I bet they will withhold to 30 each month - 360 for the year - and just have to catch up in the aggregate. That's 600 of our CA's gone in two years by flow to AA. Doesn't include the guys going elsewhere. It's fair to say we are on track for their 2.5/6 to be a really good estimate. |
Originally Posted by Cujo665
(Post 2006389)
My best estimate for 2016 from their information is they will hire 750 next year. We get 375. They estimate 100-150 furloughs may return. That leaves a worst case next year of 225 flowing.
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Originally Posted by Cujo665
(Post 2006389)
My best estimate for 2016 from their information is they will hire 750 next year. We get 375. They estimate 100-150 furloughs may return. That leaves a worst case next year of 225 flowing. This is 5 more than what's required to prevent stepping up above pay step 12. It also jives with their advertisement of at least 200 upgrades next year.
2017 should be another 375 to flow, but no more recalls; but I bet they will withhold to 30 each month - 360 for the year - and just have to catch up in the aggregate. That's 600 of our CA's gone in two years by flow to AA. Doesn't include the guys going elsewhere. It's fair to say we are on track for their 2.5/6 to be a really good estimate. In other words, Envoy will need 30-40 pilots/month to maintain current staffing. Each and every month. It's what I've been saying all along. As for ANYTHING past 2016, that is simply a projection or as you say an "estimate". In fact, AAG makes no guarantees about any specifics beyond 2016 other than assumptive projections. Anyone who comes to Envoy with confidence in upgrading in 2.5 years or flowing to AA in 6 is misguided IMO. To be fair, the same could be said for any regional making any long-term claims of certainty. Even next year for Envoy, the range of flows by your own admission varies by up to 40% based on up to 150 senior Envoy pilots who may or may not flow. |
Originally Posted by Cujo665
(Post 2006389)
My best estimate for 2016 from their information is they will hire 750 next year. We get 375. They estimate 100-150 furloughs may return. That leaves a worst case next year of 225 flowing. This is 5 more than what's required to prevent stepping up above pay step 12. It also jives with their advertisement of at least 200 upgrades next year.
2017 should be another 375 to flow, but no more recalls; but I bet they will withhold to 30 each month - 360 for the year - and just have to catch up in the aggregate. That's 600 of our CA's gone in two years by flow to AA. Doesn't include the guys going elsewhere. It's fair to say we are on track for their 2.5/6 to be a really good estimate. |
Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2006438)
Again, 375 would be a little more than 31/month. 225 would be just under 19/month, both as averages. There WILL be outside attrition at Envoy to be sure, but how many is a wildcard. I think at least 10/month would be conservative.
In other words, Envoy will need 30-40 pilots/month to maintain current staffing. Each and every month. It's what I've been saying all along. As for ANYTHING past 2016, that is simply a projection or as you say an "estimate". In fact, AAG makes no guarantees about any specifics beyond 2016 other than assumptive projections. Anyone who comes to Envoy with confidence in upgrading in 2.5 years or flowing to AA in 6 is misguided IMO. To be fair, the same could be said for any regional making any long-term claims of certainty. Even next year for Envoy, the range of flows by your own admission varies by up to 40% based on up to 150 senior Envoy pilots who may or may not flow. If they can hire 1/4 of what we lose we will still be fine by having fewer reserves, and upping the line values closer to normal again.. for 2016 at least. We could probably get by just fine losing 400 and hiring 100 if that's all we get. Then part way through 2017 we would be closer to optimally staffed and it will get to be a problem beyond that if they still can't hire enough.. As the flow and movement start to pick up though, more people will come, it's already happening. I was just in the schoolhouse for 6 weeks and saw the biggest classes I have seen in years. Things are just barely starting to turn somewhat positive again too, so "if" things do get better in 2016, like they "should", those class sizes will grow beyond what they are now. (currently at 90 new hires year to date) *which 75% of them are from mid summer on, now that things are getting better and the shrinkage has stopped people are starting to show up again.. |
Originally Posted by RyanP
(Post 2006447)
I don't think there is any plan to maintain "current" staffing levels. Right now we are WAY overstaffed. Everyone here knows it. We have over 600 pilots on RSV. We have zero time lines, and part time lines and very low unproductive line values right now. Plus we will require approximately 40 fewer crew due to losing 4 aircraft in 2016. It seems they may be keeping the staffing front loaded this way due to the plan of losing so many via flow for the next couple years.
If they can hire 1/4 of what we lose we will still be ok by having fewer reserves, and upping the line values to normal again.. for 2016 at least. We could probably get by just fine losing 400 and hiring 100 if that's all we get. Then part way through 2017 we would be closer to optimally staffed and it will get to be a problem beyond that if they still can't hire enough.. As the flow and movement start to pick up though, more people will come, it's already happening. I was just in the schoolhouse for 6 weeks and saw the biggest classes I have seen in years. Things are just barely starting to turn somewhat positive again too, so "if" things do get better in 2016, like they "should", those class sizes will grow beyond what they are now. If anything, your argument angles more toward a carrier that will shrink to right-size itself through attrition over the next 18-24 months and that means a slower upgrade for the Envoy new-hire of today. A smaller Envoy means fewer captains positions and once that proper balance is reached through contraction. Again, I think coming to any certainties about what Envoy new-hires can expect at Envoy 2.5 years from now (upgrade) let alone 6 years from now (flow to AA) is misguided. Envoy can and likely will be a completely different carrier in 2-3 years, let alone 6 and the dynamics of those projections of today are total shots in the dark. I understand why they are being cultivated and sold by Envoy management and others, but that doesn't give them any more weight. If anything, the pool of available new-hires will only shrink further and the belief Envoy will inhale most of them, I think is also misguided. |
Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2006455)
How does being overstaffed equate to upgrading new-hire Envoy pilot of today in 2.5 years ?
All I know is there is about to be a hell of a lot of movement. 400+ pilots leaving a year from here is predicted via flow and outside attrition. (barring some major disaster). That number will decrease over time as the flow percentage goes down after we get through about 80% of us, but that is where it is about at for 2016-2018 with flow and attrition. We have 2000ish pilots. Even "if" we shrink down to optimal staffing of 1700 or so. Very simple math, you lose 1000+ pilots over the next 3 years, puts a new hire around upgrade on the list, even if shrinking some. Upgrades at historically around 60-64% seniority on the list. I think the 1500 pilot number thrown around speculatively by pilots was before, now we aren't shrinking as much, we are holding on to our current fleet longer, and we've taken on more block hours. It may come to that in time, who knows, but for 2016 we now know it's well more than 1500 pilots they need here. |
Originally Posted by RyanP
(Post 2006471)
I have no idea how accurate that will be. Ask Rick Wilson for his magic calculation spreadsheet formula that all the overpaid execs at AAG spent so much time with. He explained it all to me, in person, and what assumptions it uses. I asked him to explain it and told him right to his face in front of a group of people we all thought it was bogus. I don't know if 2.5 can happen, he didn't convince me with certainty, seems a bit optimistic to me and a lot of their assumptions need to come true. I think it WILL happen if things continue as planned (eventually) though, just may not be right away. It will take a little time for the ball to get rolling.. and yes obviously new hires are needed. Which we are getting the target number now, or close to it, supposedly.
Originally Posted by RyanP
(Post 2006471)
All I know is there is about to be a hell of a lot of movement. 400+ pilots leaving a year from here is predicted via flow and outside attrition. (barring some major disaster). That number will decrease over time as the flow percentage goes down after we get through about 80% of us, but that is where it is about at for 2016-2018 with flow and attrition. We have 2000ish pilots. Even "if" we shrink down to optimal staffing of 1700 or so. Very simple math, you lose 1000+ pilots over the next 3 years, puts a new hire around upgrade on the list, even if shrinking some. Upgrades at historically around 60-64% seniority on the list.
I think the 1500 pilot number thrown around speculatively by pilots was before, now we aren't shrinking as much, we are holding on to our current fleet longer, and we've taken on more block hours. It may come to that in time, who knows, but for 2016 we now know it's well more than 1500 pilots they need here. What ends up REALLY happening in 2017, 18 or 19, etc., is really anyone's guess including both Parker and Envoy management. If Parker had his druthers, I'm sure he'd still be chocking the life out of Envoy and its pilots for not playing ball. For now, that simply isn't good business. |
Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2006494)
In the last few years, Envoy had 400+ annual attrition and it resulted in no bombshell advancements for Envoy pilots, in fact, quite the opposite. Start getting 35/month for 6 months or so and an increasing trend and I'd be willing to see things differently. The block hours and fleet plans have recently changed due to industry conditions and can and likely will change again in unanticipated directions for the same reasons in the future. There is a lot of fluidity in what Parker is doing as he is simply moving the house furniture around for the time being to best maximize AA feed coverage (this is good for me as feed coverage in necessary for a strong AA....at least until that model collapses and Delta's and United opposing tack proves the better long-term move). What ends up REALLY happening in 2017, 18 or 19, etc., is really anyone's guess including both Parker and Envoy management. If Parker had his druthers, I'm sure he'd still be chocking the life out of Envoy and its pilots for not playing ball. For now, that simply isn't good business. I don't see us shrinking our fleet by another 1200 pilots any time soon. That isn't in the plans, The fleet count for 2016 is flat. Things will be WAY better than they were yet the high attrition will be the same. A new hire won't see the stagnation we did. |
Originally Posted by RyanP
(Post 2006517)
True.. we were losing 400+ in the last few years since bankruptcy and we still all stagnated here, BUT we also shrunk from a 3200 pilot airline to a 2000 pilot airline in that timeframe. We lost the entire ATR fleet, all the remaining 135's, a bunch of 140's, some 145's and a few CRJ's plus 3 domiciles during that time which all required extra staffing and reserves. Even with all that massive loss of over 1/3rd of our airline, I managed to upgrade in 6.5yrs in the worst of it due to getting in at the front end of a massive hiring wave.
I don't see us shrinking our fleet by another 1200 pilots any time soon. That isn't in the plans, The fleet count for 2016 is flat. Things will be WAY better than they were yet the high attrition will be the same. A new hire won't see the stagnation we did. |
Originally Posted by RyanP
(Post 2006517)
True.. we were losing 400+ in the last few years since bankruptcy and we still all stagnated here, BUT we also shrunk from a 3200 pilot airline to a 2000 pilot airline in that timeframe. We lost the entire ATR fleet, all the remaining 135's, a bunch of 140's, some 145's and a few CRJ's plus 3 domiciles during that time which all required extra staffing and reserves. Even with all that massive loss of over 1/3rd of our airline, I managed to upgrade in 6.5yrs in the worst of it due to getting in at the front end of a massive hiring wave.
I don't see us shrinking our fleet by another 1200 pilots any time soon. That isn't in the plans, The fleet count for 2016 is flat. Things will be WAY better than they were yet the high attrition will be the same. A new hire won't see the stagnation we did. Now, is there any chance you could head to the bar and help our cheerleading friend home? He's likely there holding court with several of his APC buddies with a giant clear glass kool-aid container. You know, the one with the big smile on it that is displayed on the Kool Aid packs? He probably has an ALPA Nation chaser in the other hand with a red kool aid mustache as the "very sensitive" seriously pro Envoy APCers are gathered around hanging on to his every word. It's no use having a dialogue with that guy on here. You try to address only facts and you get an immediate barfed out response with the latest company drivel. Please, drive the guy home and get him in KA (Kool Aid Anonymous) as soon as possible. |
Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2006455)
How does being overstaffed equate to upgrading new-hire Envoy pilot of today in 2.5 years ?
If anything, your argument angles more toward a carrier that will shrink to right-size itself through attrition over the next 18-24 months and that means a slower upgrade for the Envoy new-hire of today. A smaller Envoy means fewer captains positions and once that proper balance is reached through contraction. |
Originally Posted by adspilot
(Post 2006801)
Let me revert back to my old job as a college math professor and try to explain how numbers work. Your humble opinion is that envoy will only be able to hire X number of pilots per month. Upgrades can be approximated as F/X=U, where F represents number of FOs and U equals months until upgrade. One can easily see that F and U have a direct correlation as F gets bigger so does U. So the logic of a shrinking pilot group will have a negative impact on upgrades only applies if there is downgrades. Pretty sure no one is saying that Envoy will have a displacements of Captains in the next year or two.
I'm pretty sure your math classes stopped at year 1 or 2 of college. |
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