I wouldn't take anything management says too seriously. Non-specific statements of vaguely positive futures can mean anything and cost nothing to make. Parker certainly wouldn't get up and state he's going to dissolve Envoy, even if that were true. The present Envoy operation is almost certain to be a part of AAG's future, but what size and what involvement with others is an unanswered question. In a consolidation scenario, if a pilot wants to flow to AA or have that as their back-up, ANY of the three WO's will for future purposes (more then 5 years out) will IMO likely be based on your DOH at any of the present carriers and so one is no worse then the other. IF that is then going to be a constant in this future equation, the question then is, which carrier can get you into the left seat ASAP to boost other options while you wait ?

In a non-consolidation scenario, once Envoy's 824 are gone, the other WO's will have caught up in size and mission to Envoy and Envoy will have contracted to much closer size and mission to them making 3 near-equal WO's. Again, in that case, the flow will likely be modified to provide each WO with equal flow access so as to ensure AAG isn't shooting itself in the foot by weakening on the legs in its three-legged regional feed network.

If they do by DOH, half of PDT and 80% of PSA pilots are below the Protected pilots, just because they are hired on or after 2012.

In the event of a merger I would expect the flow agreements to play a huge part in SLI. The Pinnacle-Mesaba-Colgan merger used career progression expectations as a major factor in determining how things got mixed together. An Envoy pilot hired before Oct. 2011 has had an unobstructed expectation of flow for quite a long time whereas those at PDT and PSA have only recently been offered such an option. Combine that with the fact that most of PSA's seniority list was hired in the last 18 months, an integration based on either career expectation or just straight DOH would heavily favor Envoy.

Good point. IF they consolidate and then IF they do DOH in an SLI. That scenario WOULD favor the more senior Envoy pilots. But absent that scenario where an SLI would be ratio or some other integration method or simply seeking to balance flow among the three WO's for stability and attraction purposes, it would likely be a more equal equation for a new-hire of today at any of the three WO's.

Just my .02............

True, but.........

......while Envoy pilots then might capture more flow slots, they have more pilots to move through, whereas those hiring on aboard PSA/Piedmont would move to AA almost as fast do to hiring on to an expanding carrier vs. a contracting one and have a stronger potential to upgrade sooner giving them earlier competitive points for other options.

This is only in a "merger" scenario as well. In an "acquisition" scenario, all bets are off. In a non-consolidation scenario, it would be in AAG's interest to have an even situation in not only flow, but contractual provisions as well, as it is counter-productive to weaken any of their regionals to benefit another.

Seems to me that if Envoy were to flow ~30 per month, PSA would flow around ~9, and PDT ~3. This just based on size and seniority. Amirite?

Maybe.

Personally, I wouldn't focus on what any one carrier does in a month or even several months. IMO, it's a backward looking evaluation. Envoy is projected to flow 250-300 which averages 21-25 pilots/month. The PSA/Piedmont projections are probably just as assumptive, general and fluid.

Well said!
(I don't work for Envoy or Air Wisconsin).

Check your numbers aa changed the hiring projection to 700-800 for 2016 meaning flow 350-400 the top of the range would about exaust the 824. So that could be interesting.

The info I have was Envoy managements statement of 250-300 flows for 2016 based on AA's numbers of a month ago, even though those projections could imply Envoy gets their maximum 50% or the figures you state. AA's statement was non-specific of what numbers come from where and the phrase IIRC, was that figure was the number of pilots they planned to "bring aboard" (or something to that effect) along with "hope to" (or something to that effect). An unknown number of deferred recalls could impact flows from the other WO's along with streeties significantly.

Feel free to post the exact statement you are assuming will override Envoy management's last projection of 250-300 flows in 2016 made about a month ago though. I'm all for accurate info.

While 350-400 flows would be great, as it would get me over to AA by the end of 2016, I think the 700-800 number includes anywhere from 100-200 recalls.

From a town hall meeting, after an AA pilot asked Parker about hiring for 2016, someone from AAG (not Envoy) made it clear: around 450 from Envoy/PSA/PDT with more room from military once the recalls are done. So around 300 from Envoy, around 100 from PSA, and 60 from PDT.

I would like it to be true that such a great number could flow in one year, but realistically a wrench gets thrown in the works somewhere along the way. Un-defers are the likely wrench, and a greater number than expected could return. As far as the employees are concerned AAG can put out statements of great things to come, but the end result is often disappointing. I'm sure someone will correct me on this, but even if we do a steady average flow of 30/month is only 360 pilots, less those from the pool taken this year, less the un-defers.

If they take more, great! But chances are that the number will be less than 300, guessing conservatively.

Not necessarily 300 from Envoy. First class in Jan has 5 street hired Envoy pilots with more to follow, so include that on top of the flows. Probably 350-375 Envoy pilots will go to American next year. Many were street hired within year ago and are awaiting class dates.

I think the ratio is off a bit. PSA got a bump in the number of people that they send over but I think its only up to 6/month right now, but increasing as certain metrics are met. They will probably send closer to 80 next year.

Hopefully fellas, hopefully. If they flow around 350 next year, they can be done with the 824 within the 1st quarter of 2017 I think

Not even. We have a 5/month flow beginning in January, and it goes up 1 /month based on how many active CAs we add to the seniority list to a maximum of 8. Not many pilots think it will ever get above 7 though because I don't think this airline has a snowball's chance in hell of hiring the amount that management says it wants to. 2016 will likely be no more than 60-70 flows.

Just looking back seeing trends and projections from some naysayers... wondering how close they were/are to facts and projections. Nothing wrong with being a pessimist or cautious and hoping for the best.

Folks are quieter on the flow doubts. Schedule issues are being worked on. But still some doubters (not saying the person i'm quoting, just many others here on APC i've read their comments going back) as they spew negativitiy still today, even after their personal projections and cautious rhetoric are exceeded (Pay, Flow, QOL, schedule changes to come).

Old guard Kirby is gone, new blood pilot friendly AAG planners are onboard, optimistic that changes with schedules will occur.

I'm proud to be at ENY with a great pilot group, strong history of fighting the good fight for the INDUSTRY. Like many other newhires were glad to be here. Before the new announcments, it was very discouraging reading the negative posts on here. That is why my drum beats loud, optimistic and positive. I understand the distrust from many 6-10yr folks. I understand the negative mgmt culture that existed. I did not live it but i supported Eagle guys & gals the whole time. I read it all, i spoke to them on flts and at airports such as LaGuardia. But now we've seen positive light comming, positive changes occuring as mentioned by this OP from back in Dec 2015. The excited folks were knocked down or insulted, but were they wrong? No. Hindsight 20/20 huh.

Let ride this wave.... for as long as we can & move-up & out when its time. If the gravy train keeps flowing as projected let it... flow with it. Be the mentor to the new-hires you wish you had. I've heard how many of you were treated. Why repeate it? Be the change & mentor you sought & wish you had.

2.5 yr Upgrade or better, and 6months flow or better projected & actions taken to SUPPORT those claims.... I'll take it. Not doubt it.


To the negative vibe spewing profanity filled vermons (no insult, just couldnt think of better/appropriate words) I'd like your proof and trending facts against the currently obvious disposition.

To those interested or considering joining Envoy, come on come all, your welcomed, be the change you want to see in this industry. We need more good people. Envoy pilots have been through a lot. But things are changing for the better and changing faster than expected. Lots of bodies joining. I'd be happy to be your referal if your a good hearted person like me (;-), before you apply to Envoy, PM me, we can talk, network, etc., I'll help you out the best way i'm able also. $5k referal bounus should never go to waste.

By the way, I know of at least 1 FO in DFW E145 holding a line. April 2015 hire.

That's only because the schedules are so bad many people would rather sit reserve then a composite line with only 11 days off.

Interestingly enough AAG wanted to have envoy send 40/mo starting in 2017 but word is envoy said no to that increase. Perhaps with more new hires and some reasonably efficient schedules it could happen.

My friend. I am very sure that you are not a pilot at Envoy. If you are indeed one of their pilots, you must work in the management office or the recruiter office.

Yes, it is great to be of positive mind but your statements are very over the top of what it is for a normal pilot that comes to work every day at Envoy. My friends that are still at Envoy do not paint the same picture as you do. The main problem there it seems is the schedules that work them like, how do you say, a rented mule. When you start early on the first day of your trip and finish late and only have two days off in between, it can wear on an hombre. Continue with this same schedule for many months and the pilot is burned out and has trouble as there are no time for relaxation.

Also, treatment of the pilots by the group of management is still a very big issue. It seems that they will leave no stone unturned if a pilot deviates from the rules in any manner there. Sick call it seems puts yourself on the radar and the group of management is eager to go after you.

Just some thoughts for you in your management office to consider.

Ha, whatever man, at least u admitted you don't work here. I asked for a couple of PVDs last year, got em (but hey, that was last year.) Also called in sick, over 5 times, no witch hunt against me, so I don't know (I did bring doctor's note). U gotta know how to play the game, that goes for ANY job.

You sure you fly here? No doubt you work here, but I don't believe you fly here. Is part of the job interview for the replacement recruiters, how much can you spew on forums.

So if you called in sick 5 times, and got a doctor's not for each, that means your sick calls cost you 200 in deductibles. I do agree with you though, I have way more then 5 sick calls and not a peep, just good reason for those calls. But that doesn't take a way from the fact they have gone after people for much less.

Last news blast said 176 have flowed so far this year. Not really big numbers so far

Yes, but the reason behind it was the Letter T pilots. Now that list is gone, so there will be flow and street hires at AA.

You are right. Ole Skyvector said in the very first post of "New Envoy Information" that 300 would flow this year (2016) and 750 over the next two years alone. It's definitely good for those who have flowed but it proves the rosy predictions of recruiting and management are just "feel good" numbers to keep hope alive.

Sick 5 times at the company, or 5 times in a year?

The flows were jammed up by letter T pilots returning. We weren't supposed to send any flows during those months but some still made it over. The 176 number isn't bad considering it should have been much lower.

The future at Envoy is so bright you gotta wear shades.

The point is letter t guys were no surprise but guys were still saying 300 to flow just to make it sound good. Lying through omission

Recruiting 101


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

How are your career expectations over at allegiant?

Yeah, but everyone knew about the letter T pilots when they made that 300 claim. In fact, the very reason naysayers on forums like this called BS on the 300 estimate was because we all knew about the recalls coming back. So, in other words, the 300 was a gross overestimation, many pilots predicted it was when the claim was made, and have now been proven right. I'm very hopeful that they go to 40/mo and it's sunshine and rainbows for everyone, but since so many of the their past predictions and claims have fallen short, what reason do we have to believe them now?

Well, have you seen their new contract?

I called BS on the 300 prediction as well. I was honestly thinking about 150 this year max. So the way it's gone has been a pleasant surprise, to me, anyway. Keep expectations low and you'll never be disappointed 😉

Management realized it was wrong too which is why we saw subsequent letters with lower numbers. Those did turn out to be more accurate.

So when will the letters about these current predictions being wrong come out?

If they ever do I'm sure you'll see it posted.