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Why Envoy's Flow Doesn't Add Up

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Why Envoy's Flow Doesn't Add Up

Old 03-20-2016, 11:01 AM
  #1  
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Default Why Envoy's Flow Doesn't Add Up

There are a few cheerleading Envoy pilots here that constantly are in sales mode on the threads relating to Envoy. They are always defending management's actions and looking only at management projections and memos to the pilot group to "sell" their product. They desperately need to sell this product because they need all the new hires they can get. Why? So that they can flow someday in the future. They are desperate to believe that what management has offered is indeed true. Just like those before them, when management's statements of "You'll be at AA in 5 years" came true.......15 years later, they are saying "this time is different." Below you'll see numbers on why this time is different, but for different reasons you will not likely see this flow continue unabated as management has stated.

It's no secret that Envoy, like almost every other regional, is having trouble getting new hires. New hire numbers have averaged between 7 and 10 per month in the first quarter of 2016.

Envoy has around 1850 pilots today. Management originally wanted an Envoy pilot group of around 1600 but that's rapidly changing and you may be near the "floor" management wants right now with their "revised" plans. Why? Because other regionals are having trouble bringing in the bodies to do the work as well. So, after spending the past four years trying to run off as many pilots as possible, management has FINALLY realized that yes, we do in fact need pilots to fly our planes. Especially since AAG has tasked them with more flying due to the other aforementioned regionals inability to get the job done. This is probably the only reason that the light bulb went off.

Now, Envoy truly is beginning to feel the squeeze or find themselves in a pickle if you will. The new hires aren't there and that is the problem.

Envoy has arguably been severely overstaffed the past year. That has quickly turned and Envoy is nearing this new "floor" of pilots on the revised flying plans that management has now. Since it appears that Envoy MAY be staffed properly today, it can be said that as the flow continues over the next few months along with present attrition, Envoy will very soon find themselves in a critical staffing situation.

Hiring 5 to 10 pilots per month isn't going to replace 40 leaving every month. As the seriously pro Envoy Patrol here is so quick to point out. "Do the math."

There will be some reprieve as Letter T pilots make their final decision over the next 6 weeks. Envoy flow will likely be on hold through the summer with only attrition taking pilots off the list. This MAY get Envoy through the summer but I predict Critical Coverage and possibly some vacations being cancelled just to meet the AAG flying schedule they will demand.

Flow could resume as early as September. With the reduced fall flying schedule and picking up 40-50 new pilots from now through the end of summer, Envoy will likely be able to allow classes of 30 to flow for a few months without causing too much of a disruption. This will take them near the end of the 824, which in my opinion, is where the game changes.

Late this year I predict Envoy will find themselves in a situation in which they cannot afford to lose a single pilot. The question is, what do you think will happen at that time? Do you think management will continue to honor this flow and suffer the consequences of idle CRJ700's, E145's and E175's? Or, do you think that they will put an emergency halt to the flow due to operational necessity?

Has Eagle/Envoy management ever violated an agreement with the pilot group in the past? Do you think that this flow agreement is a "sacred cow" that will not be touched? Many on here will say that they cannot as it will halt recruiting completely as that is the carrot drawing the recruits in. If it is, it certainly isn't attracting the hordes to Envoy at present.

My opinion is that Envoy will absolutely not hesitate to halt the flow and deal with the consequences in some other way. I can see them going to the union and hashing out some kind of deal bringing up pay for all Envoy pilots to some reasonable level. But they will not continue the flow in its present form. This new agreement may include an aggregate percentage between PDT/PSA/ENY that will flow as a whole and it will certainly not be 50% of AA new hire classes.

If you are a pilot and looking to a regional, I would strongly ask you to consider the above scenario before signing on the dotted line.
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Old 03-20-2016, 11:27 AM
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ag386 has a whole bunch of opinions stated as fact. Our new hire classes have actually averaged around 18 the last few months and is now picking up considerably with the new bonuses and 175 to new hires. ag386 has no facts to support his claim. Only opinions. One thing I would like to know is why Envoy has such a target on it in regards to if we can staff for the future. We are getting more new hires than any other WO, and more new hires than most the other regionals except Endeavor and SkyWest. The argument of "ya, everything looks good IF you can attract new hires" applies to every regional, not just Envoy.
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Old 03-20-2016, 11:33 AM
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The absolute worst part of this is Ag doesn't even work there anymore. You fully moved on to a different airline and still take the time on a Saturday to write this up.
How bitter are you?
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Old 03-20-2016, 11:35 AM
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Originally Posted by GodIsGood View Post
ag386 has a whole bunch of opinions stated as fact. Our new hire classes have actually averaged around 18 the last few months and is now picking up considerably with the new bonuses and 175 to new hires. ag386 has no facts to support his claim. Only opinions. One thing I would like to know is why Envoy has such a target on it in regards to if we can staff for the future. We are getting more new hires than any other WO, and more new hires than most the other regionals except Endeavor and SkyWest. The argument of "ya, everything looks good IF you can attract new hires" applies to every regional, not just Envoy.
Last class = 3
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Old 03-20-2016, 11:36 AM
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Originally Posted by loc n slope View Post
The absolute worst part of this is Ag doesn't even work there anymore. You fully moved on to a different airline and still take the time on a Saturday to write this up.
How bitter are you?
It goes even deeper than that. There is very strong evidence that he never worked at Envoy in the first place. His first post ever claimed a hire date that doesn't exist, and then he was unable to answer very simple, very basic questions about Envoy that any current pilot could.
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Old 03-20-2016, 11:36 AM
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Originally Posted by loc n slope View Post
The absolute worst part of this is Ag doesn't even work there anymore. You fully moved on to a different airline and still take the time on a Saturday to write this up.
How bitter are you?
That's the worst crime in the world isn't it? I DON'T EVEN WORK HERE ANYMORE!

Got to drive you guys crazy when I post things that are based in reality.
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Old 03-20-2016, 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted by chignutsak View Post
Last class = 3
And the classes before that?
Do you know what the word average means? Let me help you. You take each classes numbers. Add them all up and divide that number by how many months you included. Seems like basic math but there are a lot of pilots that are bad at math. Let me know if you need help with the addition part of the complicated formula.
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Old 03-20-2016, 11:59 AM
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Originally Posted by ag386 View Post
That's the worst crime in the world isn't it? I DON'T EVEN WORK HERE ANYMORE!

Got to drive you guys crazy when I post things that are based in reality.
If you want people to believe your lies then you can't be that off on well known numbers like pilots hired. Once I saw that I completely disregarded everything else you wrote.
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Old 03-20-2016, 12:02 PM
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Originally Posted by chignutsak View Post
Last class = 3
Shocking! They have been saying all year new hires to the 175 in April. I can't imagine why the last class in March only had 3.
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Old 03-20-2016, 12:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Skyvector View Post
It goes even deeper than that. There is very strong evidence that he never worked at Envoy in the first place. His first post ever claimed a hire date that doesn't exist, and then he was unable to answer very simple, very basic questions about Envoy that any current pilot could.
Why does it matter if I work here or not Officer? According to you, I've "lateraled" and went to Allegiant. Sorry, I couldn't make that "lateral" move to JB, NK or VA. Oh, for Captains it's a "downgrade" going to any of these places.

Why don't you get back over in the other Envoy thread and write tickets there. This thread is to show the flow isn't going to work as advertised.
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