Envoy
12-11-2018, 01:05 PM
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Joined APC: Nov 2017
Position: Upright
Posts: 396
Had a question about mil leave, LOAs, etc., for folks who drop orders to go on mil leave, or say a medical leave of absence that extends past their probationary anniversary. Do these individuals get their probationary periods extended by a like amount, or do they get through probation while on leave, and are no longer probationary pilots upon their return to work at the company?
12-11-2018, 01:23 PM
New Hire
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 1
Originally Posted by CrowneVic
Had a question about mil leave, LOAs, etc., for folks who drop orders to go on mil leave, or say a medical leave of absence that extends past their probationary anniversary. Do these individuals get their probationary periods extended by a like amount, or do they get through probation while on leave, and are no longer probationary pilots upon their return to work at the company?
I went on medical leave prior to my probationary period ending. They extended my pay anniversary an equal amount of time.
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12-11-2018, 01:33 PM
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Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 184
Originally Posted by CrowneVic
Had a question about mil leave, LOAs, etc., for folks who drop orders to go on mil leave, or say a medical leave of absence that extends past their probationary anniversary. Do these individuals get their probationary periods extended by a like amount, or do they get through probation while on leave, and are no longer probationary pilots upon their return to work at the company?
12-11-2018, 01:39 PM
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Joined APC: Aug 2015
Posts: 217
Originally Posted by Voski
Sure, if everyone on the seniority list flowed, it'd be ~9 years for a new hire today. However, attrition is the huge unknown. Envoy has been losing 15-20 pilots a month from attrition this past year ... however, the hiring wave at the majors is just kicking off. With American, Delta, United, FedEx, UPS, and all the LCCs hiring en masse, it's likely outside attrition will increase. Future attrition + projected flow = ???
That said, the industry will look so different in 3 years, let alone 9 years, so don't come to Envoy for the flow. It's an insurance policy at best.
That said, the industry will look so different in 3 years, let alone 9 years, so don't come to Envoy for the flow. It's an insurance policy at best.
12-11-2018, 02:20 PM
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Joined APC: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,054
Originally Posted by mketch11
Yes, projected flow + future increase in attrition based on a hunch + magical en masse hiring wave + no idea what the industry will do + a shot of koolaide = sub 4 year flow for everyone....
Lets say all of it above you year 1 and none of it last year, so the average of 100 pilots a year.
We know it should take about a year to flow the remaining PP, so that's a year.
Another year to flow DOS at 15 a month - another year.
If you're #2200 to flow (sound about right for a NH?), then it is
X = 2 + (2000 - 500 - 100X)/12*20
Or
X = 5.82 years (or thereabouts, I'm not good at math)
So about 6 years to flow all things remaining constant.
12-11-2018, 03:25 PM
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Joined APC: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,510
Originally Posted by mketch11
Yes, projected flow + future increase in attrition based on a hunch + magical en masse hiring wave + no idea what the industry will do + a shot of koolaide = sub 4 year flow for everyone....
So there you have it three year flow!
Now take managements back spin. Guys are beating down the door and if we have that much turnover, we can’t afford to give raises. And why should we when we have a three year flow?
12-11-2018, 03:59 PM
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Joined APC: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,523
Originally Posted by mketch11
Yes, projected flow + future increase in attrition based on a hunch + magical en masse hiring wave + no idea what the industry will do + a shot of koolaide = sub 4 year flow for everyone....
12-11-2018, 05:37 PM
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Joined APC: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,054
Originally Posted by BigZ
This year attrition was showing at 200
Lets say all of it above you year 1 and none of it last year, so the average of 100 pilots a year.
We know it should take about a year to flow the remaining PP, so that's a year.
Another year to flow DOS at 15 a month - another year.
If you're #2200 to flow (sound about right for a NH?), then it is
X = 2 + (2200 - 500 - 100X)/12*20
Or
X = 6.5 years (or thereabouts, I'm not good at math)
Lets say all of it above you year 1 and none of it last year, so the average of 100 pilots a year.
We know it should take about a year to flow the remaining PP, so that's a year.
Another year to flow DOS at 15 a month - another year.
If you're #2200 to flow (sound about right for a NH?), then it is
X = 2 + (2200 - 500 - 100X)/12*20
Or
X = 6.5 years (or thereabouts, I'm not good at math)
12-11-2018, 07:02 PM
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Joined APC: Oct 2007
Posts: 194
Originally Posted by TransWorld
After the Dec 2018 flows are accounted for, what is the hire date of the Jan 2019 flows?
From 2012-2014 there's only 135 pilots still on the list. At 15 per month that group will take 9 months. There are 74 pilots still on the list hired in 2015 so that group would take another 4 months. If AA hiring continues, 2020 is the year you see the flow times really fall.
There's no attrition accounted for in those numbers or any pause in AA's new hire classes. A change in either of those variables could push the flow time forward or back.
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