Lateral Move with 175 Type Rating
01-16-2019, 07:37 AM
#11
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Joined APC: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,888
Originally Posted by afterburn81
As one pilot to another pilot, you’ve got to get out of the mentality of overpromising. People see this statement and think, hey this guy knows something and 3 years isn’t bad.
For one, the number you threw out there is very appealing but based on absolutely nothing other than wishful thinking.
Facts - there are around 8 more CRJs that need to be put on line. Will need 25-30 more captains to fly them. However, 50 CR7 captains just finished up the AMR flying and have never flown from the right seat. So those slots are basically spoken for. Not to mention 50 FOs that just finished the AMR flying that seniorities range from 13 years to 25 years. All of which will be bidding for any open captain position in order to maintain their pay rates.
Currently there are no upgrade classes. System bids for the next few months will yield only backfilling of vacancies. At 12 years of seniority I personally could not hold left seat anywhere within the company. There are 50+ guys more senior to me that will need to upgrade before me. From what I hear, at best, XJT hires 3-5 per month and I have recently spoken to a few different instructors that can say not all of those make it through training.
Long story short, the company cannot upgrade if they don’t get FOs. A LOT of FOs (since more FOs attrit than CAs). Close to 100 guys were displaced to FO on the ASA side and maintain their CA pay so long as their bid always includes all CA positions before FO positions.
Do the math yourself. Upgrades at 3 years? Never again at XJT. Can’t happen unless a flow forces the top to come off.
The only thing I honestly see could happen (just opinion), exchanging 145s for 175s. So a new hire might see a 175 sooner than later. Which may appeal to more and help growth and maybe get the ball rolling in the right direction.
For one, the number you threw out there is very appealing but based on absolutely nothing other than wishful thinking.
Facts - there are around 8 more CRJs that need to be put on line. Will need 25-30 more captains to fly them. However, 50 CR7 captains just finished up the AMR flying and have never flown from the right seat. So those slots are basically spoken for. Not to mention 50 FOs that just finished the AMR flying that seniorities range from 13 years to 25 years. All of which will be bidding for any open captain position in order to maintain their pay rates.
Currently there are no upgrade classes. System bids for the next few months will yield only backfilling of vacancies. At 12 years of seniority I personally could not hold left seat anywhere within the company. There are 50+ guys more senior to me that will need to upgrade before me. From what I hear, at best, XJT hires 3-5 per month and I have recently spoken to a few different instructors that can say not all of those make it through training.
Long story short, the company cannot upgrade if they don’t get FOs. A LOT of FOs (since more FOs attrit than CAs). Close to 100 guys were displaced to FO on the ASA side and maintain their CA pay so long as their bid always includes all CA positions before FO positions.
Do the math yourself. Upgrades at 3 years? Never again at XJT. Can’t happen unless a flow forces the top to come off.
The only thing I honestly see could happen (just opinion), exchanging 145s for 175s. So a new hire might see a 175 sooner than later. Which may appeal to more and help growth and maybe get the ball rolling in the right direction.
The issue is making the company attractive to new hires, priming the pump so to speak. In some ways, I already see this. I've had pilots PM me about XJT, which hasn't happened in a while. A change to CPP and more bonus money would probably help quite a bit. Once that happens, if XJT can become that airline again that new pilots talk about, I do think the upgrade times will come down very quickly. Three-year upgrades? Maybe, maybe not. But it won't be 12-year upgrades and the fall in upgrade times won't be linear.
01-16-2019, 07:47 AM
#12
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Joined APC: Apr 2007
Position: A320
Posts: 1,308
Originally Posted by PhantomHawk
The company can upgrade and fly the reserve CAs as FOs.
01-16-2019, 07:53 AM
#13
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Joined APC: May 2017
Position: Reverse Cowgirl
Posts: 418
Originally Posted by afterburn81
As one pilot to another pilot, you’ve got to get out of the mentality of overpromising. People see this statement and think, hey this guy knows something and 3 years isn’t bad.
For one, the number you threw out there is very appealing but based on absolutely nothing other than wishful thinking.
Facts - there are around 8 more CRJs that need to be put on line. Will need 25-30 more captains to fly them. However, 50 CR7 captains just finished up the AMR flying and have never flown from the right seat. So those slots are basically spoken for. Not to mention 50 FOs that just finished the AMR flying that seniorities range from 13 years to 25 years. All of which will be bidding for any open captain position in order to maintain their pay rates.
Currently there are no upgrade classes. System bids for the next few months will yield only backfilling of vacancies. At 12 years of seniority I personally could not hold left seat anywhere within the company. There are 50+ guys more senior to me that will need to upgrade before me. From what I hear, at best, XJT hires 3-5 per month and I have recently spoken to a few different instructors that can say not all of those make it through training.
Long story short, the company cannot upgrade if they don’t get FOs. A LOT of FOs (since more FOs attrit than CAs). Close to 100 guys were displaced to FO on the ASA side and maintain their CA pay so long as their bid always includes all CA positions before FO positions.
Do the math yourself. Upgrades at 3 years? Never again at XJT. Can’t happen unless a flow forces the top to come off.
The only thing I honestly see could happen (just opinion), exchanging 145s for 175s. So a new hire might see a 175 sooner than later. Which may appeal to more and help growth and maybe get the ball rolling in the right direction.
For one, the number you threw out there is very appealing but based on absolutely nothing other than wishful thinking.
Facts - there are around 8 more CRJs that need to be put on line. Will need 25-30 more captains to fly them. However, 50 CR7 captains just finished up the AMR flying and have never flown from the right seat. So those slots are basically spoken for. Not to mention 50 FOs that just finished the AMR flying that seniorities range from 13 years to 25 years. All of which will be bidding for any open captain position in order to maintain their pay rates.
Currently there are no upgrade classes. System bids for the next few months will yield only backfilling of vacancies. At 12 years of seniority I personally could not hold left seat anywhere within the company. There are 50+ guys more senior to me that will need to upgrade before me. From what I hear, at best, XJT hires 3-5 per month and I have recently spoken to a few different instructors that can say not all of those make it through training.
Long story short, the company cannot upgrade if they don’t get FOs. A LOT of FOs (since more FOs attrit than CAs). Close to 100 guys were displaced to FO on the ASA side and maintain their CA pay so long as their bid always includes all CA positions before FO positions.
Do the math yourself. Upgrades at 3 years? Never again at XJT. Can’t happen unless a flow forces the top to come off.
The only thing I honestly see could happen (just opinion), exchanging 145s for 175s. So a new hire might see a 175 sooner than later. Which may appeal to more and help growth and maybe get the ball rolling in the right direction.
Blackhawk is correct about the need to “prime the pump,” and the non-linear nature of upgrades. If you look only 200 seniority spots junior to the most junior captain (2011 hire), we go into 2016 hires. Also consider that many of these people are bypassing. As long as we get new hires in the door, your assertion that upgrades around 3 years will never happen at ExpressJet (without a flow) are not supported by the numbers.
01-16-2019, 08:26 AM
#14
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Joined APC: Jan 2019
Posts: 531
1) at my interview, Gabe said “if XJT gets a total of 126 145s and 25 175s, management sees no reason why everyone currently here won’t see upgrade to captain within 24 months.”
2) this is contingent on fielding all 25 175s AND 44 more 145s this year. That’s 69 more airplanes in a year.
3) Pontius says that the airline is limited by manning. When they can man the planes, they will field them. This makes sense.
4) either this is a last-gasp gambit or the company sees/knows about a “big move” from United.
5) to field 171 airplanes (25x175s,126x145s, 20x 200s) with optimal 7 crews per airplane, they will need 2394 pilots flying on the seniority list.
6) accounting for 20 per month attrition for CPP, that means they need about 1440 new hires by the end of next year to field those airplanes.
7) that’s 31 graduated new hires per class, at 2 classes per month, every month for the next 2 years basically.
This is completely unrealistic given the current pay, bonus, etc. Either this is all BS, or something “big” is going to happen to make this more than hot air.
What is the whispered big move? What’s the river card XJT is hoping to see that will make XJT classes overfilled?
2) this is contingent on fielding all 25 175s AND 44 more 145s this year. That’s 69 more airplanes in a year.
3) Pontius says that the airline is limited by manning. When they can man the planes, they will field them. This makes sense.
4) either this is a last-gasp gambit or the company sees/knows about a “big move” from United.
5) to field 171 airplanes (25x175s,126x145s, 20x 200s) with optimal 7 crews per airplane, they will need 2394 pilots flying on the seniority list.
6) accounting for 20 per month attrition for CPP, that means they need about 1440 new hires by the end of next year to field those airplanes.
7) that’s 31 graduated new hires per class, at 2 classes per month, every month for the next 2 years basically.
This is completely unrealistic given the current pay, bonus, etc. Either this is all BS, or something “big” is going to happen to make this more than hot air.
What is the whispered big move? What’s the river card XJT is hoping to see that will make XJT classes overfilled?
01-16-2019, 08:34 AM
#15
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Joined APC: May 2017
Position: Reverse Cowgirl
Posts: 418
Originally Posted by watch
1) at my interview, Gabe said “if XJT gets a total of 126 145s and 25 175s, management sees no reason why everyone currently here won’t see upgrade to captain within 24 months.”
2) this is contingent on fielding all 25 175s AND 44 more 145s this year. That’s 69 more airplanes in a year.
3) Pontius says that the airline is limited by manning. When they can man the planes, they will field them. This makes sense.
4) either this is a last-gasp gambit or the company sees/knows about a “big move” from United.
5) to field 171 airplanes (25x175s,126x145s, 20x 200s) with optimal 7 crews per airplane, they will need 2394 pilots flying on the seniority list.
6) accounting for 20 per month attrition for CPP, that means they need about 1440 new hires by the end of next year to field those airplanes.
7) that’s 31 graduated new hires per class, at 2 classes per month, every month for the next 2 years basically.
This is completely unrealistic given the current pay, bonus, etc. Either this is all BS, or something “big” is going to happen to make this more than hot air.
What is the whispered big move? What’s the river card XJT is hoping to see that will make XJT classes overfilled?
2) this is contingent on fielding all 25 175s AND 44 more 145s this year. That’s 69 more airplanes in a year.
3) Pontius says that the airline is limited by manning. When they can man the planes, they will field them. This makes sense.
4) either this is a last-gasp gambit or the company sees/knows about a “big move” from United.
5) to field 171 airplanes (25x175s,126x145s, 20x 200s) with optimal 7 crews per airplane, they will need 2394 pilots flying on the seniority list.
6) accounting for 20 per month attrition for CPP, that means they need about 1440 new hires by the end of next year to field those airplanes.
7) that’s 31 graduated new hires per class, at 2 classes per month, every month for the next 2 years basically.
This is completely unrealistic given the current pay, bonus, etc. Either this is all BS, or something “big” is going to happen to make this more than hot air.
What is the whispered big move? What’s the river card XJT is hoping to see that will make XJT classes overfilled?
01-16-2019, 01:09 PM
#16
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Joined APC: Jan 2019
Posts: 531
Originally Posted by PontiusPilot
As of yesterday, the company posted on our employee homepage an intention to hire at least 500 pilots in 2019.
01-20-2019, 12:39 PM
#17
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Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 559
Originally Posted by watch
Which recently said they’re hiring 600 in 2018. How much credence should we pay to any of those numbers. It’s useful though in the sense that it shows the company at least *wants* to hire.
Only way I could see this happening would be a flow announcement to UA.
Otherwise, it’s gonna be slower to get to those numbers.
01-20-2019, 01:09 PM
#18
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Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,145
Originally Posted by da42pilot
Sounds like they gave you a projection IF hiring picks up, not that they actually expect it to happen. There’s an important distinction there.
Only way I could see this happening would be a flow announcement to UA.
Otherwise, it’s gonna be slower to get to those numbers.
Only way I could see this happening would be a flow announcement to UA.
Otherwise, it’s gonna be slower to get to those numbers.
To catch up with American’s regional flow program is nearly impossible. American’s wholly owns are hiring 145 and 175 street captains and has the ability to force upgrade FO’s. And, they know that 8 years or so down the line, they will make to American. When do you see ExpressJet hiring street captains into their 145 and 175 programs? I would say two years at the outside on the 145 fleet.
There is definitely a positive outlook for ExpressJet.
01-20-2019, 01:48 PM
#19
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Joined APC: May 2017
Position: Reverse Cowgirl
Posts: 418
Originally Posted by calmwinds
if ExpressJet’s CPP is restructured like CommutAir’s, hiring will definitely pick up. And, when CPP hits 3 years seniority for ExpressJet pilots, the dam will break.
CommutAir’s quick CPP has been a result of their small seniority list, quick upgrades, and low success rate.
01-20-2019, 03:01 PM
#20
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Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: lav dumper
Posts: 707
We also have a very low CPP success rate. Many CAs have failed twice now. Causing them to stack up on the top of the list. Too many people got comfortable for too long. Sometimes a decade without a major training cycle. This could backfire on management if the top of the list stagnates and nobody goes anywhere. C5 doesn’t have 50% of the CAs topped out on an 18 year pay scale, we do. They need to fix this CPP problem.
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