If you're able to manipulate your schedule correctly during ILIW and SLIW anything's possible.

That is certainly the million (or a least a few hundred thousand) dollar question. I would much prefer a DFW base - MUCH easier to get to and from out of LBB. But as you said, that's Envoy and Mesa (and I guess Skywest too). As you know it's SUPER hard to get solid unbiased info from these boards, but from what I can piece together, looks like Envoy has got a pretty nasty "new hires are going to LGA on reserve for a while" thing going on, particularly if you're not a cadet, and I've just heard too many negative things about Mesa's work rules. Don't know much about Skywest but I think their reserves are pretty lengthy as well. Of course, all of this could change 3 hours ago. In a nutshell that's why I've sort of narrowed my focus to XJT for now. I've got 3500TT, half of that is turbine, and half of the turbine is PIC, but it's all 91/135. I'll be putting the app in at Spirit as well (DFW base) which honestly sounds like it would be a great place to end up (I'm 47 by the way), but without the 121 time and not knowing anyone there, I know my app score is probably still gonna kick me to the lower end of the stack. Anyway, I digress. Your original point is valid though. I've sorted through the maze to see if those others made more sense, but I keep drifting back to XJT as being the better overall choice in my particular case. I guess we'll find out when we're dead and we see who has the most chips :-)

I've heard this from a friend that works there as well. Actually, I was SHOCKED when he told me that such a thing even existed at a regional. I thought all regionals were "here are your line choices, bid them by seniority, you git what you git and don't throw a fit". Another reason why I'm leaning to XJT, because I don't believe Mesa has that capability (not sure about Envoy).

You're better off going to Envoy. DFW and flow to AA, plus its an easier commute. Don't worry so much about reserve and commuting. What's true today could be drastically different in 3 months. If you want to do airline flying, go for the base and advancement. Expect reserve and some commuting hiccups and you wont be disappointed. Life gets better with seniority and longevity. Having AA in your back pocket will be more important than you think.

Does Envoy have any sort of line improvement window or ability to massage the schedule after awarded? (I don't know the answer). Also, I think I've read that Envoy has about 30% reserve lines, meaning there's more time on reserve and overall less credited hours (on average) for everyone (line holders included). They also have forced upgrades at 1000 hrs. Under current conditions, that would make for probably at least a year of pretty heavy suck as an FO then probably a year or more of pretty heavy suck after upgrade. And I know, suck is relative, and like you said, can change on a dime, but seems like you might see an inordinate amount with Envoy vs. XJT. If the goal is to move on after, say, 4 years, that's 50% suck time, vs. maybe only 25% at a place that can get you out and on the line much more quickly. It's all a crapshoot anyway. And of course I reserve the right to be completely wrong (I usually am).

Where are they going to get all these 145's from?

from the 30ish parked ones

This is very true and the flow won’t do much for you at 47 as far as getting to AA. By the time your number is called you’ll be too late to the party there.

If your goal is Spirit either of these places will get you your time and allow you to move on. Problem is that IAH is still very difficult to get a CA line. Your suck will not be fun here for a while either. Most junior line holder on the CA side is over 14 yrs in IAH.

That number should come down a bit but it won’t be anything close to the others anytime soon. The flow at Envoy is crucial here since all the senior captains come off the list and allow you a line and better quality of life sooner as a consequence.

How long does it take to get a CA line at Mesa, Skywest and Envoy?

14 years!!! Holy Lord! I assume there was a hiring gap that accounts for a lot of that, but that's pretty significant. Would also be curious how long CA lines take at those other three. Anybody have the number to that truck driving school? Truck Masters I think it is? :-)

The 14 year deal will come down dramatically. About a year ago the upgrade at XJT regardless of base was close to 10 years. Now it’s under 1. If there is enough hiring for fleet growth the lineholder time will come down as well. Especially with the hiring from the majors on the horizon.