FlyingSlowly

How about 6 months...

I have been thinking of PSA for over a year now...1350 and counting.

Now, if I aim that way, I'll have to complete with all those jumping ship from everywhere (with prior 121 time) to go to PSA because of the new incentives...

Waiting to see who beats AAL's latest $15,000 play.

flyguy94

This is not correct

ajm757

I can definitely see the regional landscape looking a bit different. Might have a few less airlines, but the regionals will still be here and thriving. I cannot see the majors and LCC's opening the flood gates and hiring massive amounts of pilots like some on here predict.

PSA help

They will be hiring approximately 5000 pilots a year. for the next 4 years. Delta, United and AA alone will be hiring 3000 per year. Add in Hawaiian, Southwest, Alaska/Virgin, Frontier, UPS, FedEx, JetBlue, Spirit, Allegiant, and the other major and LCC's, and that makes another 2000 a year.

5000 x 4=20,000

There are not currently 20,000 regional pilots.

Air Wisconsin - 650
Commutair - 300
Compass - 990
Endeavor - 1750
Envoy - 1800
Expressjet - 3385
GoJet - 500
Mesa - 1000
Piedmont - 450
PSA - 1200
Republic - 2000
SkyWest - 4000
TSA - 600

That equals just over 18,000 regional pilots.

In 2016, the majors/lcc's will have hired about 3800, plus the few hundred that were recalled from furlough at AA. 2016 was not supposed to be a big hiring year. If 4200 pilots is not a big hiring year, imagine what 2018-2020 is going to look like.

stanthecaddy

You forgot:

Great lakes
Mountain Air Cargo
Silver
Netjets
Flexjets
Kalittta Air
Atlas
Omni Air
Cape Air
Every part 135 pilot in the country
Many part 91 pilots in the country
And thousands upon thousands of military pilots

Plus many more I'm prob forgetting.

And: the spirit, jetblue , frontier pilots + thousands of military pilots that will try to move up to AA, UA, DAL ,leaving RJ guys slots only at ULCCs.

PSA help

I said regional pilots. That is what I counted. Kalitta is not a regional. Nor is Atlas. Nor is FlexJets/NetJets.

CapeAir? MAC? Those are well beneath a regional. Great Lakes? Maybe they are a regional. Maybe. But they will likely be out of business soon anyways.

Have you seen the pay scales and quality of life at many of the places that you listed? Those are career destinations. Many regional pilots will be leaving the regionals to go and work there. Kalitta pays as much as a major now. NetJets is a career for most pilots.

My statement was correct.

Here's another statement.

In the next 8 years, the majors/LCC's will hire more than all of those that you listed except for the part 91's. I don't have a good figure on those.

Imagine how different it will be if even 50% of all current regional pilots are gone to the majors/lcc's in 5 years. It will likely be even more than that.

AAL has already said that they currently have 10 regionals, but will be cutting it to 5 in the next few years. Delta is buying airplanes and cutting regional feed. So is United.

Braniff DC8

We've been here before, a number of times then the rug gets pulled out from under you. One story that always stays in the back of my mind is the USAir 330. In the 1988/89/90 time frame, USAir hired 330. They were then all furloughed for like ten years.

This business is fical and cyclical. One old friend got hired at UAL in 1966. He made jet FO (Boeing 720) in six months. Another got hired at TWA in 67/68, was furloughed like three times, gave up, went to Piedmont, made F28 Captain quick, merged with USAir, retired as a DC-9 Captain, lost his pension and now flies a Cessna 310 around doing aerial photography at 74 years old.

The airlines hire until they furlough. There will be another downturn and furloughs, not if, when! Getting drunk on cool aid is fine and then reality sets in.

Not trying to be a pessimist but a realist. How about all the pilots overseas? 100s looking for a spot and few get called.

There is no shortage, regionals will merge or shut down. There will be another downturn-pure economics. The U.S. is in debt and another war (Persian Gulf) will fix the problem.

Advice, tuck your money away. The UAL guy I mentioned lost his pension too after 35 years but tucked money away and he's ok.

Two years, or less to Capt at the Big D. It was two years to the left seat at Braniff in 78/79/80. Big hiring, big expansion, 747s, new uniforms, new big beautiful corporate headquarters and paint job. By 1982, it was all gone!

Love the list of those regionals, here's mine. All gone in some way.

Westair
Golden West
Pocono
Suburban
Pennsylvania
Business Express
Rio
Cascade
Brockway
CC Air
Mall
Precision
New Air
Pilgrim
GP Express
PBA
Air Midwest
Atlantic Coast
+ lots more.

Rant Finished

PSA help

I agree, and the regionals are going to shrink. Many will go away. That list of defunct regionals will likely double in size.

But the majors will not shrink. Not much, anyways. There are only a few legacy airlines left, and the government will not let them fail. They are too essential to commerce in the country. Imagine what would happen if there was only one legacy? Fares would skyrocket and business travel would suffer.

They will need to fill the seats that they are being vacated due to age.

What I said was that the majors and LCC's are going to hire close to 20,000 in the next 4 years. There are currently 20,000 regional pilots. That was the end of my statement.

Will every regional pilot go to a major or LCC? Absolutely not. Not even close. But the game is changing.

If 50% of the regional pilots - the ones with clean records, ones that have PIC time, and a college degree - go to the majors, then the entire regional industry will be much different than it is now.

If there is another war, it is likely that military pilots will be retained and discharges will be denied. There truly is a shortage in military pilots.

The top 15% are probably not going to go anywhere. They are lifers at their regional, at least until they shut down. Nor are the bottom 15%. It is the middle group that will be leaving.

Braniff DC8

PSA, not let them fail??? Braniff, Eastern, Pan Am, TWA. The darlings of deregulation: Air Florida, America West, Midway. ALL GONE! The government will let them fail and Sept 11 was a one off to save jobs. The truth is AA, DAL, UA, AWA and USA were all in big trouble after Sept 11 and any or all of them could have shut down. Some would say they should have to save those that were stronger but that's more opinion. Dinosaurs were chosen for extinction (see the great statement by Jeff Goldbloom in Jurassic park).

I would say that their is a shortage of perhaps those applying for licenses but that can always be taken care of, as it is now, by expats. South Africans and Australians in particular. Thousands would line up for the "American dream. It's a lot safer and cheaper to live in the USA.

The regionals are offering better deals by now for sure. It was as not all that long ago where you had to pay 10,000$ to fly a Beech 1900 at Commutair and all the other regionals for that matter. The flows are great but that's been a long time coming.

The promises of flows and all those bonuses can be taken away anytime.

Sorry to be Debby Downer but I have watched this rodeo for many many years and eventually it goes down hill. Watching all the poor Eastern guys trying to find work in 90/91 was really sad.

I think a lot of the young guys and gals today from the military and the regionals or 135 might not know the history of the airline industry. Like the Kennedy's, interesting and great history but lots and lots of skeletons that were often swept under the rug.

Most of the airlines could care less about you and will dump you on the street, cut your pay and take your pension anytime they want. All these great deals or contracts still have force mejure in them!

Second rant finished.

PSA help

Those were the old days. There aren't 12airline anymore. There are 3. That's it. If one goes away, competition falls and the American public and businesses pay for it. The government said that they wouldn't let them fail when they allowed AA/US and United/Continental to merge/buyout.

Look at the banks. Look at the auto industry. Look at oil. Steel. Electricity. Telecommunications. There will not be a major airline folding in our livetimes. The senators and congressmen will not allow it to happen.

If we stop service to Butte, then that representative will get voted out. But they need his vote on other bills, so they will subsidize it.

Regionals will fail. Pilots will be on the street. But if an airline falls, so will dozens of politicians. They won't let that happen. Not anymore.

It is important to know the history, but also to know what is currently happening. In the 60s-90s, we were a more free market economy. Competition was good. Now, that is all gone. A few large corporations own everything. Everything is government controlled and regulated. No more "Wild West"

When any of those failed airlines did close, was there another company waiting in the wings to take their place? Yes there was.

That isn't the case anymore. If Delta fails (which it won't), is Allegiant going to pick up the slack? Absolutely not.