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busdriver12 10-21-2018 04:04 PM


Originally Posted by FrankTheTank (Post 2695480)
Because they get A plan plus something. Instead of A plan plus zero.

Except in certain situations they get A plan minus something (if they don't have high five), or A plan plus zero (if they don't make enough). And even the plus something isn't very much. It's the people with many years to go that make out on this.

FrankTheTank 10-21-2018 04:25 PM


Originally Posted by busdriver12 (Post 2695482)
Except in certain situations they get A plan minus something (if they don't have high five), or A plan plus zero (if they don't make enough). And even the plus something isn't very much. It's the people with many years to go that make out on this.

Correct.. I misunderstood you’re point about not having high 5. Reread it and I agree. But I would think unless they are 25 year FOs, I can’t imagine many 25 year folks don’t have a high 5.

And the ones with many years to go “MIGHT” make out. Too many variables to be negotiated and pilot’s assumption of all the risk.

Personally, I trust this Union 0% until I see the results of the survey!

Fdxlag2 10-21-2018 04:26 PM


Originally Posted by busdriver12 (Post 2695482)
Except in certain situations they get A plan minus something (if they don't have high five), or A plan plus zero (if they don't make enough). And even the plus something isn't very much. It's the people with many years to go that make out on this.

The assumption is the VB Plan will provide a big enough pile to at least provide another 2% of the IRS max per year is it not? Of course it is going to benefit those over 25 years, the vast majority of whom have maxed out their high five.

BLOB 10-21-2018 04:42 PM


Originally Posted by busdriver12 (Post 2695482)
Except in certain situations they get A plan minus something (if they don't have high five), or A plan plus zero (if they don't make enough). And even the plus something isn't very much. It's the people with many years to go that make out on this.

A guy hired today with 25 years to work has a floor benefit of 27% of his pre-retirement income. The optimistic side of the modeler puts him at only 41% replacement of pre-retirement income. Not sure that is “making out.” We are aiming low enough that it’s not good for anybody...except the company negotiator who will get a great bonus if this goes through.

Hacker15e 10-21-2018 05:10 PM


Originally Posted by pinseeker (Post 2695440)
Reportedly true, without any proof!

What if it currently costs the company $4 for every $1 of our current retirement? Would it seem expensive, or unreasonable that an increase to that retirement would cot $4 to every $1 of lifetime benefit.

Does it matter if it is "unreasonable"? The cost is a function of laws passed to ensure pensions are funded better than they were. It is what it is. The cost of that burden is the company's argument against raising the cap, increasing the annual multiplier, or any of the other efforts to increase the benefit.

So far as verification of the 4:1 number, since knowledge of it is a result of information seen by MEC members who had to sign an NDA, I don't see any reason to expect the company will ever reveal the details of those numbers, how they were computed, or why. I understand the suspicion of information coming from members of the MEC based on past behavior, but this is information the company is never going to reveal to the pilot group. Insistence on chasing down the accuracy of the number is wasted effort.

It is a piece of data the pilot group didn't have during the last round of negotiations. Rather than wasting effort trying to disprove its validity (which is something none of us will be able to do), why not use it instead to figure out how to get the improvements in the A plan we want, rather than trying to stab the VB plan to death with it?

TonyC 10-21-2018 07:53 PM


Originally Posted by Hacker15e (Post 2695508)

Does it matter if it is "unreasonable"? The cost is a function of laws passed to ensure pensions are funded better than they were. It is what it is. The cost of that burden is the company's argument against raising the cap, increasing the annual multiplier, or any of the other efforts to increase the benefit.

So far as verification of the 4:1 number, since knowledge of it is a result of information seen by MEC members who had to sign an NDA, I don't see any reason to expect the company will ever reveal the details of those numbers, how they were computed, or why. I understand the suspicion of information coming from members of the MEC based on past behavior, but this is information the company is never going to reveal to the pilot group. Insistence on chasing down the accuracy of the number is wasted effort.

It is a piece of data the pilot group didn't have during the last round of negotiations. Rather than wasting effort trying to disprove its validity (which is something none of us will be able to do), why not use it instead to figure out how to get the improvements in the A plan we want, rather than trying to stab the VB plan to death with it?


In the first place, the "4 to 1" ratio is NOT "a piece of data [we] didn't have during the last round of negotiations." We were told The Company made that claim to argue they couldn't afford to raise the FAE cap, and we had to take their word for it. As far as I can tell, we have zero additional information to confirm or deny the claim.

Secondly, is the figure regulatory ("a function of laws passed") or proprietary (" ... information seen by MEC members who had to sign an NDA ...", " ... don't see any reason to expect the company will ever reveal the details of those numbers, how they were computed, or why", " ... information the company is never going to reveal to the pilot group")?

If the cost is a result of regulatory change, we should be able to consult experts in pension fund management to derive an educated estimate of the cost. Federal laws are hardly secret, and I can't imagine why MEC members would be asked to not disclose Federal laws.

If the cost is proprietary, a secret, then stop blaming it on the law. And just because The Company won't tell us, or doesn't want to the MEC to tell us, that doesn't mean we can't consult with the same experts to study the fund and come up with some pretty good estimates.

I defy you to find evidence the MEC has paid such experts to study our A fund and estimate the cost of raising our FAE cap by any increment.

What you WILL find is clear evidence they've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars studying and promoting one single alternative to our A Plan without learning one whit more about the plan we already have. The MEC has a fiduciary responsibility to the membership, and that includes being experts on our retirement plans. If they don't want to do that, they need to step aside and make room for those who will.






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kwri10s 10-21-2018 08:06 PM


Originally Posted by busdriver12 (Post 2695459)
I don't know how much this benefits the over 25 year crowd. I made the assumption that it could only help them, but then I ran some numbers and I don't know that it benefits them that much.

If you don't have your high five, even with 25 years, it might not be a benefit, it could be a loss. And if you're at 25 years, you probably don't have much time left to work.....and since this appears very income limited, it gets you nothing from the VB until you make a certain number (the number I came up with was 206K), and gets you no extra for anything you make over 254K. I ran those numbers for three years left to work, though certainly other people's situation would be different.

It looks to me like it is going to add very little to your retirement, unless you have plenty of years left to go. The big winners on this appear to be the younger people, with decades left to accrue benefits. That is, if they live that long and stay employed.

The only pilots over 25 years without their high five would be those that stayed as narrow body CA and never flew extra or sold back vacation.

The big winners will be those over 25. Since the company was not going to put any more money into their accounts or collocate any additional money than was required under the current plan. Those over 25 will now get a piece of the new pie and since they are for the majority widebody Capts, then they will get a much bigger piece of the pie than anyone else gets. That piece will come at the expense of the junior crew members.

The junior crew members will have longer under the proposed plan and IF it works as Cheiron and Blitzstein hope then the younger pilots should even out in the long run. Not as guaranteed as the 320K cap we will get in the next contract if we don't pass this debacle. Then the every 4-5 year bump the A plan could get going forward in each new contract. But who knows. If the inventors of this nonsense and the MEC ostriches might be right and every other retirement expert in the country is wrong.

busdriver12 10-21-2018 08:26 PM

Perhaps my numbers are skewed because I put in retiring at 60. The numbers look far better if you stick it out to 65. But I don't want to do that, and I hate that people might feel they need to keep working because of the potential for a better retirement. I think that overall this plan is going to benefit very few people, and who can trust a calculator that the union puts out?

This seems insane that we are wasting our resources towards negotiating an uncertain, complicated plan that will probably not be anything like we expect.

TonyC 10-21-2018 08:27 PM


Originally Posted by kwri10s (Post 2694621)

With all the whoring out for flying, I'd say all bets are off for any additional hiring. Another unexpected consequence.


Some may call that an unintended consequence, but only an idiot would call it unexpected.

(I'm not calling you an idiot as I know you were just trying to be generous.)

The Company wouldn't call it either; they'd call it a goal!






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TonyC 10-21-2018 08:36 PM


Originally Posted by kwri10s (Post 2694923)

IF you don't maximize then you will loose retirement money as your percentage of the total will be less. So your buddy will be taking some of your retirement money.

The 2% floor is not the minimum an individual pilot can return, it's the minimum return rate for the whole bucket (fund). Since every pilot will only be getting "their percentage" of the total, if you work less than the average pilot you will receive less than average. So if the average pilot works more and you only work BLG you will be receiving less pancakes than what you had projected in your forecasting model. It won't matter if you return 2% if your pancake is only 85% of a average share. You already lost 15% and you will not make that up.


If I understand you correctly, I don't think that's correct. Only 2 factors determine the number of pancakes a pilot is awarded at the of the year.

1) The pilot's annual earnings

2) The performance of the fund.

Annual Earnings Cap, Floor, and Hurdle Rate also come in to play in the calculation, but in no way does any pilot's earnings reduce any other pilot's retirement benefit.


I apologize in advance if I've misunderstood what you're saying.






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