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Old 12-21-2018, 03:46 AM
  #21  
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There is a lot we don't understand as pilots, when it comes to trade. My farmer friends were very worried about the trade war early in the year. Now not so much. It ends up, we signed deals with other counties and our product is still shipping out. Those same countries are signing deals with China and selling our product at an inflated price. With a billion plus mouths to feed, China gots to eat. The fact that it is costing China a little more sets the US up nicely for negotiations.

Maybe FedEx ALPA members could study this tactic. Sometimes you just have to call the big bully's bluff. Freight gots to move. This tactic seems as foreign to some pilots as not flying draft during negotiations.

A little short term pain for long term gain.
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Old 12-21-2018, 04:51 AM
  #22  
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http://https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tnt-express-albatross-rears-head-003127787.html
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Old 12-21-2018, 04:55 AM
  #23  
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Originally Posted by urinmyseat View Post
There is a lot we don't understand as pilots, when it comes to trade. My farmer friends were very worried about the trade war early in the year. Now not so much. It ends up, we signed deals with other counties and our product is still shipping out. Those same countries are signing deals with China and selling our product at an inflated price. With a billion plus mouths to feed, China gots to eat. The fact that it is costing China a little more sets the US up nicely for negotiations.

Maybe FedEx ALPA members could study this tactic. Sometimes you just have to call the big bully's bluff. Freight gots to move. This tactic seems as foreign to some pilots as not flying draft during negotiations.

A little short term pain for long term gain.
I have no problem reworking these trade deals. I agree about the short time pain. They’ll eventually come to a deal...

We failed to mention it was Fedex’s strategy (not government policy) that acquired TNT. This has brought us much increased exposure to Europe, which is slowing. Not to mention the TNT cyber attack which has cost us $$$$$. I’m not saying it was a bad deal, it’s way to early to tell, but it’s had a negative effect on the short term. I think it will be positive in the long term.

I don’t agree with a lot of Trump’s agenda, but I think reworking trade deals will be positive in the long run for the economy and Fedex.
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Old 12-21-2018, 06:23 AM
  #24  
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Originally Posted by golfandfly View Post
I have no problem reworking these trade deals. I agree about the short time pain. They’ll eventually come to a deal...

We failed to mention it was Fedex’s strategy (not government policy) that acquired TNT. This has brought us much increased exposure to Europe, which is slowing. Not to mention the TNT cyber attack which has cost us $$$$$. I’m not saying it was a bad deal, it’s way to early to tell, but it’s had a negative effect on the short term. I think it will be positive in the long term.

I don’t agree with a lot of Trump’s agenda, but I think reworking trade deals will be positive in the long run for the economy and Fedex.
Great post. Short term pain for long term gain.
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Old 12-21-2018, 07:25 AM
  #25  
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One thing about the Street is they want results in a few quarters. Immediate gratification is key.

Look back at the purchase Flying Tigers. It was a bad move according to Wall Street at the time. It might NOT have helped the company in 1990, or 92, or hell...even 1995. But now, every time we fly through KIX, NRT, CAN, PVG, etc etc we see the long term value. I don't know when or how TNT will pay off, but the network has grown and is in a position to capture future growth.

Does that mean I am rushing to buy the stock? Not right now. But when the dust settles I'll buy more. But I also would buy some Amazon too...just to keep the new boss happy.
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Old 12-21-2018, 07:16 PM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by Albief15 View Post
One thing about the Street is they want results in a few quarters. Immediate gratification is key.

Look back at the purchase Flying Tigers. It was a bad move according to Wall Street at the time. It might NOT have helped the company in 1990, or 92, or hell...even 1995. But now, every time we fly through KIX, NRT, CAN, PVG, etc etc we see the long term value. I don't know when or how TNT will pay off, but the network has grown and is in a position to capture future growth.

Does that mean I am rushing to buy the stock? Not right now. But when the dust settles I'll buy more. But I also would buy some Amazon too...just to keep the new boss happy.
OMG that was so well said, all-beef. I especially liked the H E double hockey sticks. and the funny thing there at end about amazon. hilarious.
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Old 12-22-2018, 07:06 AM
  #27  
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Market is fwd looking. Global Quantitative Easing allowed global market recovery. Currently, more than 50% of global central banks are in tightening mode. Many Intl bourses rolled over months ago (Korea,China,DE,GB,HK). Dow theory states transports is leading indicator of slowing economy. FedEx, UPS, etc have had declining stock prices for months. From investor view, yes, FDX executed solid Q3 numbers, albeit EU/TNT was soft. More importantly, they cut fwd guidance. This (transports breakdown) agrees with fwd US macro pic and Fed raising rates and reducing liquidity from balance sheet (less money supply to loan...slower Econ) to control inflation, have bullets for next crisis.

QE was crack to get the party started. Less crack, bummer.

Pundits believe the 2-3 month market drop will persist at least another 3-6 months or longer. Statistically, it’s normal.

Pundits further believe Emerging Markets (EM) will rise before US as their down cycle lead ours down and should lead up. (Search Fidelity EM funds to be prepared if/when time is right).

Market movers:

Fed: If GDP deteriorates too quickly AND tame inflation, Fed will adjust by changing policy on reducing balance sheet (cessation of reducing liquidity), reduce rate hikes, or both.

Trump: Will not ease up on Trade War, nor should he. With IP theft and forced tech transfer, China should’ve been challenged decades ago. Ideas are our strength/weapons. Give it away, you surrender (economically, militarily, culturally). I was pleased to see 5 eyes countries supported condemnation on China this week. Germany, France will bandwagon.

Trump needs this situation to correct itself quickly or lose re-election. He’s unconventional/quirky, but he’s not dumb. This Trade tiff will erode his base.

China: The the biggest thorn in the paw. They’ve stole and forced tech transfer for 40+ years. They signed Treaties to stop/punish theft w/ no intention to enforce. It(philosophy) brought them from ag society to #2, faster than any nation in history. They told Nixon, they would open markets and play fair. This week, Jinping declared, “no one can demand we change.” (Can’t imagine who he was referring to.) Why change a successful strategy when USA has a critical weakness that China doesn’t...elections. They’ll play long game. It’ll take 5 eyes and others to bring down the elephant.


On the brighter side. China blinks, US and World inventors/biz prosper. Trump loses, he’s a goner and ticker RST could have a breakout move up w Mandarin language lessons.
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Old 12-22-2018, 05:32 PM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by Anthrax View Post
OMG that was so well said, all-beef. I especially liked the H E double hockey sticks. and the funny thing there at end about amazon. hilarious.
Hey Anthrax, has anyone ever told you that you’re a big douche? Just wondering. You must be an absolute pleasure to fly with.
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Old 12-23-2018, 05:14 AM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by trashhauler View Post
Hey Anthrax, has anyone ever told you that you’re a big douche? Just wondering. You must be an absolute pleasure to fly with.
I'm quite certain TH that you're a real party in the cockpit, or flight deck, or whatever we're calling it these days. Mr. Million Laughs. No one would ever call you a douche, because you most likely IMO go out of your way to hide your douchebaggery. I'm professional in the cockpit or whatever we're calling it. I bust balls here and there, and have no problem with someone busting mine, and I don't go around crying foul or douche or writing letters to the chief pilot. I tell you what I'm not. I'm not a coward. I'm not afraid to go the distance in securing a good contract, one that's at the very least balanced, one that honors every pilot from the most senior to the most junior without carve outs designed to split our unity. I don't hide my cowardice behind seemingly measured analysis of some crappy TA. I wouldn't say, well, this is probably the best we're going to get so we might as well vote yes, knowing that my words will have an impact on many new hires and not-so-new hires that have relied on me for employment. This is al my opinion of course, I could be wrong.
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Old 12-23-2018, 07:53 AM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by Anthrax View Post
I'm quite certain TH that you're a real party in the cockpit, or flight deck, or whatever we're calling it these days. Mr. Million Laughs. No one would ever call you a douche, because you most likely IMO go out of your way to hide your douchebaggery. I'm professional in the cockpit or whatever we're calling it. I bust balls here and there, and have no problem with someone busting mine, and I don't go around crying foul or douche or writing letters to the chief pilot. I tell you what I'm not. I'm not a coward. I'm not afraid to go the distance in securing a good contract, one that's at the very least balanced, one that honors every pilot from the most senior to the most junior without carve outs designed to split our unity. I don't hide my cowardice behind seemingly measured analysis of some crappy TA. I wouldn't say, well, this is probably the best we're going to get so we might as well vote yes, knowing that my words will have an impact on many new hires and not-so-new hires that have relied on me for employment. This is al my opinion of course, I could be wrong.
Woooooo hooooooo Shots Fired!!! I’m with Anthrax, you’re not alone in this fight.
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