Stock Drop
 

Why did the stock drop $22.50 in one day?

The Fed...

...and a less than stellar earnings report and outlook for 2019

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...94677c5d90.jpg

Why is everything dropping?


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Because traders are more emotional than teenage girls.

Because stock market performance is not based upon economic indicators or financial strength, but instead upon investor perception and emotion.

My favorite example of this is one quarter where Apple made more revenue than a)they projected and b)had ever been generated by a single company in history, and the stock still dropped because they didn’t make what the analysts thought they should make.

Due to a trade war...

400 billion dollar deficits with China as far as the eye can see, we been losing the trade war for 30 years.

Stock analysts weren’t satisfied with several questions and other issues that were brought up during teleconference with company leaders. Some analysts lowered their rating on Fedex stock. That was my take on it. And with unexpected separation of 2 senior Fedex execs, either heads are rolling, or saving themselves.

How did that Amazon link show up? That is scary!

If that’s a trade war, then we are all losing one to our local grocery store.

Well... Who cares if the Trade War hurts FedEx anyway... Even our own employees want The Trade War despite it threatening our own company. What really matters is that our elected politicians win their respective urination contests.

Barista economics. All your steel workers can work at Starbucks.

American first. Fedex employee well down the list.

Because we're not Americans... My vote will reflect this and did. I switched to a different party over Free Trade and this issue threatening MY job - the most important one.

Trade Wars have been very damaging to America's economy every time we've tried them. The economy was roaring and this is just the start of The Trade War. Go look at what started The Great Depression... Was that good for America? No. How many BS manufacturing jobs would we need to replace the tax revenue of 1 FedEx 777 Captain?

Hopefully we knock this garbage off because it's not just damaging FedEx. Go look at soy farmers, pig farmers and even GM employees. It's damaging consumers and affecting all of our retirements. I can't think of anyone it's actually helped.

I get it that you won't change your mind but you might when this starts hitting us harder.

Just to be clear, you think we have free trade with whom? The market crashed because of Fed Policy. They had loose money for eight years and that inflated the stock market. They are worried that since we now have full employment inflation will kick in so they are trying to slow down the economy. Idiotic but looks like they slowed it way down. We have a better deal with Europe. We have a better deal with Canada and Mexico. We need a better deal with China.

You are truely blind, bias or delusional. You’re making excuses for poor policies just like you make excuses for our crappy TA in 2015. SMFH

So you think it was a coincidence the market crashed a thousand points in 24 hours after the FED boosted the rate. You are a booboo head. Na na na. I noticed you didn’t answer the question as to who we have free trade with. I notice you also didn’t refute my other points, you just called me names. I take it back you are an imature poopy head.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

President Sheen: Winning
 

There is a lot we don't understand as pilots, when it comes to trade. My farmer friends were very worried about the trade war early in the year. Now not so much. It ends up, we signed deals with other counties and our product is still shipping out. Those same countries are signing deals with China and selling our product at an inflated price. With a billion plus mouths to feed, China gots to eat. The fact that it is costing China a little more sets the US up nicely for negotiations.

Maybe FedEx ALPA members could study this tactic. Sometimes you just have to call the big bully's bluff. Freight gots to move. This tactic seems as foreign to some pilots as not flying draft during negotiations.

A little short term pain for long term gain.

TNT woes
 

I have no problem reworking these trade deals. I agree about the short time pain. They’ll eventually come to a deal...

We failed to mention it was Fedex’s strategy (not government policy) that acquired TNT. This has brought us much increased exposure to Europe, which is slowing. Not to mention the TNT cyber attack which has cost us $$$$$. I’m not saying it was a bad deal, it’s way to early to tell, but it’s had a negative effect on the short term. I think it will be positive in the long term.

I don’t agree with a lot of Trump’s agenda, but I think reworking trade deals will be positive in the long run for the economy and Fedex.

Great post. Short term pain for long term gain.

One thing about the Street is they want results in a few quarters. Immediate gratification is key.

Look back at the purchase Flying Tigers. It was a bad move according to Wall Street at the time. It might NOT have helped the company in 1990, or 92, or hell...even 1995. But now, every time we fly through KIX, NRT, CAN, PVG, etc etc we see the long term value. I don't know when or how TNT will pay off, but the network has grown and is in a position to capture future growth.

Does that mean I am rushing to buy the stock? Not right now. But when the dust settles I'll buy more. But I also would buy some Amazon too...just to keep the new boss happy. :p

OMG that was so well said, all-beef. I especially liked the H E double hockey sticks. and the funny thing there at end about amazon. hilarious.

Binoculars
 

Market is fwd looking. Global Quantitative Easing allowed global market recovery. Currently, more than 50% of global central banks are in tightening mode. Many Intl bourses rolled over months ago (Korea,China,DE,GB,HK). Dow theory states transports is leading indicator of slowing economy. FedEx, UPS, etc have had declining stock prices for months. From investor view, yes, FDX executed solid Q3 numbers, albeit EU/TNT was soft. More importantly, they cut fwd guidance. This (transports breakdown) agrees with fwd US macro pic and Fed raising rates and reducing liquidity from balance sheet (less money supply to loan...slower Econ) to control inflation, have bullets for next crisis.

QE was crack to get the party started. Less crack, bummer.

Pundits believe the 2-3 month market drop will persist at least another 3-6 months or longer. Statistically, it’s normal.

Pundits further believe Emerging Markets (EM) will rise before US as their down cycle lead ours down and should lead up. (Search Fidelity EM funds to be prepared if/when time is right).

Market movers:

Fed: If GDP deteriorates too quickly AND tame inflation, Fed will adjust by changing policy on reducing balance sheet (cessation of reducing liquidity), reduce rate hikes, or both.

Trump: Will not ease up on Trade War, nor should he. With IP theft and forced tech transfer, China should’ve been challenged decades ago. Ideas are our strength/weapons. Give it away, you surrender (economically, militarily, culturally). I was pleased to see 5 eyes countries supported condemnation on China this week. Germany, France will bandwagon.

Trump needs this situation to correct itself quickly or lose re-election. He’s unconventional/quirky, but he’s not dumb. This Trade tiff will erode his base.

China: The the biggest thorn in the paw. They’ve stole and forced tech transfer for 40+ years. They signed Treaties to stop/punish theft w/ no intention to enforce. It(philosophy) brought them from ag society to #2, faster than any nation in history. They told Nixon, they would open markets and play fair. This week, Jinping declared, “no one can demand we change.” (Can’t imagine who he was referring to.) Why change a successful strategy when USA has a critical weakness that China doesn’t...elections. They’ll play long game. It’ll take 5 eyes and others to bring down the elephant.


On the brighter side. China blinks, US and World inventors/biz prosper. Trump loses, he’s a goner and ticker RST could have a breakout move up w Mandarin language lessons.

Hey Anthrax, has anyone ever told you that you’re a big douche? Just wondering. You must be an absolute pleasure to fly with.

I'm quite certain TH that you're a real party in the cockpit, or flight deck, or whatever we're calling it these days. Mr. Million Laughs. No one would ever call you a douche, because you most likely IMO go out of your way to hide your douchebaggery. I'm professional in the cockpit or whatever we're calling it. I bust balls here and there, and have no problem with someone busting mine, and I don't go around crying foul or douche or writing letters to the chief pilot. I tell you what I'm not. I'm not a coward. I'm not afraid to go the distance in securing a good contract, one that's at the very least balanced, one that honors every pilot from the most senior to the most junior without carve outs designed to split our unity. I don't hide my cowardice behind seemingly measured analysis of some crappy TA. I wouldn't say, well, this is probably the best we're going to get so we might as well vote yes, knowing that my words will have an impact on many new hires and not-so-new hires that have relied on me for employment. This is al my opinion of course, I could be wrong.

Woooooo hooooooo Shots Fired!!! I’m with Anthrax, you’re not alone in this fight.

Another thread gets insulted into oblivion. :(