heavycargo

It's funny how individuals perceived this as a doom and gloom post. I started this post by indicating that leadership needs to wake up so Fedex does not get railroaded. There are some obvious issues lurking and nobody is really talking about it. With as many positives that are available concerning this job it's important people understand whats going on. People are making life changing commitments and may have choices.

Another great point is that its not an all or none scenario. However, as in the past to outwardly deny the rise of Amazon as many people have is foolish. Two years ago people would laugh at you for having this conversation. These days it gets a little quiet in the cockpit when we ponder about the future.

The rise of Amazon does not mean the fall of Fedex or UPS. However, market share is the issue. There is obvious exposure in some of the key sectors that raise concern and when leadership is not willing to acknowledge the issue or be honest with the public it's wrong. If you think it's ok to say one thing to the public sector and say another thing behind closed doors concerning the future it's misleading especially to those who are investing into the future growth of the company.

Coming into this next contract the company is definitely going to be playing their forecasts and projections in their favor.

This is a good conversation and if it makes you uncomfortable thinking about it or talking about maybe you need to ask yourself why.

HvypurplePylot

Take away (forced spinoff) of AWS and Amazon’s profits are not that impressive. Bezos can afford to be a disrupter with AWS carrying the load. Personally I welcome the competition, I think FedEx and UPS got a little lazy and this will make them better, similar to how Target and Wal-Mart are thriving. Amazon I believe will overextend themselves and soon customers won’t stand for the service failures which are VERY common already and will start to depend on other retailers, which happen to use Fedex.

Amazon fails all the time, business insider “articles” never really talk about it because well they are a blog and people take them as a source. But amazon tried and failed with cell phones, fire sticks while popular have made Roku and Chromecasts just as successful. Amazon didn’t put Netflix out of business with prime streaming. Lots of headwinds with Whole Foods and now they are going to cut prices at a traditionally higher margin grocery store. Part of the reason people shop at WF is because it’s more expensive. It’s a perceived luxury.

One last point, there’s already massive push back in the ocean freight side with amazon trying to break into that market and companies not wanting them to know their supply chain, b2b shipping will not be a home run because it may be cheaper today but letting amazon steal your supply chain isn’t worth the risk.

Imapiloticanfly

Don’t forget that Bezos owns a significant portion of Business Insider. It’s a propaganda machine with the mission of strategically placing articles to help Amazon’s business. Along with the Post...

busdriver12

The discomfort I have with this thread is not the subject....I can retire any time. But the "why" that makes me uncomfortable, is that I've been around this forum for awhile. If a long time poster had started it, no problem. But we have had our share of trolls, management trying to lower contract expections, etc, so I'm always suspicious.

To give you the benefit of the doubt that you are neither of the above, why come to work here if you have such concerns? Why not work for a passenger carrier that is not threatened by Amazon?

Shaman

While that's not impossible at some point in the future at this point it would be pretty improbable for them to take the postal contract from us. They have far less lift than UPS and FDX so I would question their ability to offer the same level of service (even at an assumed lower price)

on that note how do we know what their actual costs are for shipping via their leased capacity? I mean aside from the marked to market pricing of FDX & UPS are their actual costs that much less? Do their 767s burn less fuel or require less maintenance? The crews operating them make less certainly, but these ACMI companies have a profit margin to the services they provide as well.

I think there's a bunch of breathless reporting out there and the "street" would love to pressure FDX/UPS management into reducing costs and utilizing free cash flow to do stock buybacks by casting Amazon as an immediate looming threat.

I'm gonna say it again. It is hubris to believe that "WE" need to wake up Fedex management. Those dudes stay "woke". Which is why we are always getting submitted during negotiations

ESQ702

This is 100% true. I used to sell on amazon and constantly had to deal with them as a competitor, not just fleecing me out of 1/3 of my sales price in fees...

To get an idea of how many items amazon sells in competition to others, this is one place to start:

https://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=17602470011

howardhughes8

If UPS and Fedex attempted to pay their pilots the same wages as Atlas/ATSG/etc, whatever, they would be having the same problems!! UPS and Fedex could not compete with Delta/American/United/Southwest if not for the CBA’s we have. While they will try to reduce their costs however they can, there certainly would not be nearly as many folks knocking on their door if not for our CBA’s. Both of these jobs are good because they pay well, excellent benefits, good work rules, etc, not because someone wants to fly mostly night cargo for the rest of their lives.

Sure, some will always prefer cargo, but I venture to say most people prefer flying during the “day” and pax all else being equal.

jetlaggy

day yes
pax no