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Considering jumping ship

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Considering jumping ship

Old 01-17-2020, 07:24 AM
  #11  
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Excellent post by Sluggo 👍.

While not a Fedex guy (UPS guy), and hired within the last 3 years, here is my 2 cents.

First of all, Fedex is most definitely NOT a sinking ship. However, I would not take in consideration how bad the airlines where doing during the Great Recession vs how Fedex/UPS where expanding and being shielded from economic uncertainty. This is a VERY different time, the pax airlines finally, after decades of operation, understand that yield management/profitability is much more important than market share. They will dump a market or reduce frequency in a heart beat if loosing money, redeploy assets to another profitable route. The mindset and structural nature of the business has fundamentally changed. The big 4 have two powerful tools available to them in case capacity starts to surpass demand: park older planes and stop hiring and let attrition widdle down the surplus of pilots. IMO, unless there is some sort of depression, you won’t see a furlough for years, if at all.

The cargo world is much more in flux today than the pax airlines. Not that it’s going anywhere, but both Fedex and UPS are facing headwinds and a changing landscape. E-Commerce and international trade come to mind. One thing is for certain, Amazon has changed the competitive landscape, hate them or love them. One positive byproduct is people want their purchases NOW, creating higher demand for faster shipping services. And brick and mortar continues it’s precipitous decline.

I have just under 500 folks below me at UPS (out of 2,950 or so) and while not considering jumping ship (that sailed for me when I turned down Purple and United, regret somewhat not taking the ladder), it makes me a tad uncomfortable. And with less than a year in at Fedex, I would be very uncomfortable, not panicking but uncomfortable.

Fedex is a great company, tremendous schedule flexibility, but with few coming in below you in the near future, your QOL may not improve as rapidly as previous new hires. The question becomes, and it only matters what YOU think, is this temporary or is it more long term? If you ask me, again IMO, while absolutely still a great job, those hired at Fedex recently and going forward have missed the expansion wave, the days of rapid QOL improvement. That was one part of my decision to say no thank you to Fedex. Fedex had been hiring 500+ a year for multiple years, since 2014 something like half or more of the seniority list has been hired. And the potential for flying expansion, after having already received a large chunk of the new planes, net growth of the seniority list was simply going to slow down, with upward movement coming mostly in the form of retirements (something like 42 76 and 15 77 remaining to be delivered, of which most will be replacements).

I hear quite a bit of rumblings regarding schedule quality deterioration from the 4-5 former colleagues that are at Fedex. Probably one of the best aspects of the job. Something worth looking further into.

Age is another huge factor. If you are 45+ I would not even consider Delta or Southwest due to demographics. United is probably best right now, AA with the MASSIVE retirements will provide very rapid movement but you are rolling the dice with such a dysfunctional family.

Fedex (and UPS for that matter) is facing several headwinds, and the industry landscape is changing just as the pax carriers underwent fundamental structural changes in the 2000’s. Tough to predict what the future holds. Acquisition by a major retailer? Chinese remove the boot from the neck? Amazon continues to grow to the point of offering third party shipping services at a low cost to offset their own shipping?

A lot of uncertainties right now, we all wish we had a crystal ball. While not doing night hub turns anymore, and my QOL is pretty good, I do regret somewhat not going to United. My bed is made, your window, depending on your age, is still open. My number one suggestion as a relatively new guy, DO NOT make haste decisions and do not make decisions on short term economic events. Analyze what you are considering leaving behind vs what you may or may not gain. I can’t emphasize enough, THE GRASS IS NOT ALWAYS GREENER ON THE OTHER SIDE. Analyze every aspect of the job, schedules, health care, retirement, upward mobility, commuting (or not), Union/company relationship, etc. Don’t focus on just one thing. Fedex seems to take pride that they have never furloughed (unlike Brown who did not need to furlough and did it anyways 🤦‍♂️), something to consider.

Look at the grand picture, it is most definitely not a black or white decision. Good luck to you!!

Last edited by C2078; 01-17-2020 at 07:34 AM.
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Old 01-17-2020, 08:13 AM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by Sluggo_63 View Post
You're going to find a lot of people here who are going to defend FedEx to the end, can't see the negatives, and won't be able to fathom why anyone would want to leave.

I would say that there are pluses and minuses here, for sure. Just like other places. Pilots tend to polish their own turds and downplay any negatives that their airline may have.

FedEx guys will routinely poo-poo the negatives... "Hub turning isn't that bad, you get used to it". "Over 70% of our flying is during the day". And it goes on.

But be aware that your buddies at other airlines do the same. Maybe I would have enjoyed myself at Southwest, but when I hear my buddies say they flew 800+ hours in a year, or "we rarely five 5 legs a day any more" or "we get to pick up as much work as we want to make money," I just shake my head and wonder how they do it... just like they look at us landing somewhere at 7:00 am and think "those poor bastards."

I was at a major passenger airline in 2001 and was furloughed after 9/11. I was lucky enough to get hired here after 5 years as a furloughee. I turned down the recall to my airline in 2007, which was a good thing because I would have been furloughed again in the recession of 2008.

But, when I was a new hire here there were nights I really questioned my decision to jump from a steady 9-5 job in the Air Force Reserves to come here. I had a scattershot VTO schedule with me making multiple commutes to work, just to hub turn all night in the back seat of the 727, hanging in the straps just trying to stay awake on final. I was seriously wondering what I had done.

But it got better. As my seniority grew, so did my quality of life. Week-on/week-off became a reality. Then came double deadheads to my home town. I was home more and blocking less. Life was good.

I tell everyone that comes here that being junior here sucks. Some of the worst flying in the airline industry is our junior domestic flying. That isn't a debate. It can be horrible. But with seniority, it gets a lot better. I think the problem you're facing right now, is you got hired in what seems like it may be the beginning of a slowdown in hiring keeping you from gaining seniority as quickly as others that have gone before you. It's easy for me and others to say, it'll be good once you get some seniority, because we're already senior and maybe didn't experience being a 90% 757 FO hub turning for years with no option to improve our lot in life.

When we were hiring 20 pilots a month, we always had guys in class who came from other airlines, including the "big 4." Although it wasn't publicized, I'll guarantee that we had quite a few pilots leave here for other jobs at other airlines.

So, really, I have no advice to give you except be wary of people who tell you that you're crazy to think about leaving, because you aren't. Their history here may not line up with your reality. But also be aware of your friends at other airlines who tell you how good it is there while ignoring the downsides of their jobs.

Whatever you decide, good luck to you. I wish you the best.
This may be the best post I've ever read......well done, Sluggo
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Old 01-17-2020, 09:00 AM
  #13  
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Thanks so much for the thoughtful insight. I’m sorry if I came across as negative in my original post. This job is awesome and I’m glad to be here. It just seems like all I hear about is negative media attention and how Amazon is going to kill us. I haven’t been around long enough to know what to pay attention to and what is an over reaction or hyperbole. Great post Sluggo...that is 100% what I was hoping to hear.

Hope see y’all on the line!
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Old 01-17-2020, 09:33 AM
  #14  
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I’m not at Fedex or UPS...or United.
Keep in mind though that you have the job that everybody else wants.
Thousands apply every year and thousands don’t even get a call or a TBNT for that matter.
This forum is filled with how-do-I for the company that you work for.
Its not always champagne and strawberries at any job, inside or out of aviation.
Without knowing you and just reading your initial post it sounds like you’re expecting the sky to fall down.
Whatever negatives you’re experiencing right now it will only get better.
Yes we all have been or still are at the bottom couple of hundred.
Nothing you can do will fix that.
People will always need to eat and they’ll never stop ordering cheap stuff from China.
They will stop traveling however when things get tight.
AFAIK every major airline has at some point gone through restructuring proceedings and emptied out retirement funds.
Fedex never has.
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Old 01-17-2020, 10:12 AM
  #15  
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Originally Posted by frddrvr View Post
Thanks so much for the thoughtful insight. I’m sorry if I came across as negative in my original post. This job is awesome and I’m glad to be here. It just seems like all I hear about is negative media attention and how Amazon is going to kill us. I haven’t been around long enough to know what to pay attention to and what is an over reaction or hyperbole. Great post Sluggo...that is 100% what I was hoping to hear.

Hope see y’all on the line!
Hey, we all need to vent from time to time! And you probably helped others in the same boat get a sense of perspective.
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Old 01-17-2020, 10:14 AM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by C2078 View Post
….Fedex is a great company, tremendous schedule flexibility, but with few coming in below you in the near future, your QOL may not improve as rapidly as previous new hires. The question becomes, and it only matters what YOU think, is this temporary or is it more long term? If you ask me, again IMO, while absolutely still a great job, those hired at Fedex recently and going forward have missed the expansion wave, the days of rapid QOL improvement. That was one part of my decision to say no thank you to Fedex. Fedex had been hiring 500+ a year for multiple years, since 2014 something like half or more of the seniority list has been hired. And the potential for flying expansion, after having already received a large chunk of the new planes, net growth of the seniority list was simply going to slow down, with upward movement coming mostly in the form of retirements (something like 42 76 and 15 77 remaining to be delivered, of which most will be replacements)…...
Just some clarification.

Hiring/Retirements
2015(May-December): Hired 113
2016: Hired 361
2017: Hired 357, Retired 182, Net Gain 175
2018: Hired 408, Retired 170, Net Gain 238
2019: Hired 375, Retired 158, Net Gain 217
2020: Retire 144
2021: Retire 165
2022: Retire 193
2023->2028: Retire 200+/year

Current Seniority List: ~5,000
2020->2028: ~1,824 mandatory retirements (~36% of the list)

Most Junior 757 CA is ~82% overall seniority
Most Junior WB CA is ~67% overall seniority

Last edited by Reese; 01-17-2020 at 10:49 AM.
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Old 01-17-2020, 10:17 AM
  #17  
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Originally Posted by Reese View Post
Just some clarification.

Hiring/Retirements
2015: Hired 113
2016: Hired 361
2017: Hired 357, Retired 182, Net Gain 175
2018: Hired 408, Retired 170, Net Gain 238
2019: Hired 375, Retired 158, Net Gain 217
2020: Retire 144
2021: Retire 165
2022: Retire 193
2023->2028: Retire 200+/year

Current Seniority List: ~5,000
2020->2028: ~1,824 mandatory retirements (~36% of the list)

Most Junior 757 CA is ~82% overall seniority
Most Junior WB CA is ~67% overall seniority

Thank you for clarification. When I interviewed in 2017 they told us they had been hiring close to 500 since 2014, about 20 every other week pretty consistently.
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Old 01-17-2020, 12:04 PM
  #18  
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Stay at FedEx. We are still profitable.

At some time in the future, a Von Mises crack up boom or a Hyman Minsky moment will come. You'd rather be here than a pax carrier when society figures out that the pancakes they've stacked have flattened to the thickness of tortillas. And the consequences of government debt cannot be put off forever.

The barriers to entry in this business will enable us to survive more easily than the passenger carriers. Much of the passenger carrying is discretionary travel. Much of the business travel could go to video conferencing in a depression. But I doubt Brick and Mortar will make a comeback.

Still, more freight will move to trucks. And ships. I couldn't foresee the impact of a bigger and better Panama Canal when I came here.

​​​​But the barriers to entry in this business are sizeable. After the next downturn, I doubt Amazon's access to capital will be as easy as it has been till now. Their profitability may not be sufficient to fund their desired expansion of infrastructure.
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Old 01-17-2020, 03:28 PM
  #19  
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Depends on age....

Passenger carriers have gone thru their 40 yrs in the desert... I am afraid we are about to go thru ours and this is why..

-Competition from Amazon
-Technology inovations
-Global trade disruptions
-Poor management allowing reduced manning.

Cargo will be reduced to single or no pilot decades before passenger carriers.

If you are young and can get to a jr domicile easy I would seriously consider leaving. Bid long call rsv and sit at home. I got lots of friends that are jr at the big three and their qol is pretty good. We had a big turn down 10 yrs ago and looks like we might have some ruff times ahead.

This said last guy I know that left here went to AA in August of 2001...
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Old 01-17-2020, 07:06 PM
  #20  
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Originally Posted by MEMA300 View Post
Depends on age....

Passenger carriers have gone thru their 40 yrs in the desert... I am afraid we are about to go thru ours and this is why..

-Competition from Amazon
-Technology inovations
-Global trade disruptions
-Poor management allowing reduced manning.

Cargo will be reduced to single or no pilot decades before passenger carriers.

If you are young and can get to a jr domicile easy I would seriously consider leaving. Bid long call rsv and sit at home. I got lots of friends that are jr at the big three and their qol is pretty good. We had a big turn down 10 yrs ago and looks like we might have some ruff times ahead.

This said last guy I know that left here went to AA in August of 2001...
A 40 year down turn?

How was the guys career at AA?
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