"Normal" Upgrade Times
 

So hopefully this thread doesn't spiral out of control (yeah right), but I'm curious to know: for a NH here at FedEx, given the massive throttling back on hiring and plans to "trim" (read: aggressively carve out) $4bn over the next two FYs, what does the upgrade timeline look like?

Better said: traditionally, and in the non-COVID environment, what was the upgrade timeline like? Probably best to also not account for the 60-65 change as well. I'm guessing more like 7-10 years for WB (longer for the triple), and 4-5 years for the 75?

I get that no one knows the future, and I'm probably off in my estimates as well, but I like hearing from those who have been here a lot longer than I have. Thanks!

(and yes, the upgrade will probably be a lot quicker at one of the third party lift options that our Scope allows the company to use :))

I can only tell you about the 75 as a sub 5 year hire.

Pre covid the earliest upgrades on the 75 were 3 or 3.5 years. Which at the time was astounding. Post covid that dropped to almost nothing. I believe I heard about a new hire off IOE getting the award, don't quote me though.
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That being said, training has dropped to almost nothing. I have no idea what will happen. Guys who were awarded CGN CA upgrades have been told by the company not to expect a class date in 2023.

The only what I know how to answer that question is by divining one by zero (1/0) to get your answer.

id say the average time to downgrade is 3-6 years. Yes that is right

We only retire about 200 a year. You can look that up on the Alpa webpage.

Before COVID and the rapid expansion, it took 9-10 years for a wide body captain. 7-8 for 757 Captain. I'm using my class as an example.

We are overstaffed. FedEx Management will brief investors on April 5th about Network 2.0. We could have a bid which displaces a lot of junior pilots in category.

Under the current overstaffing and retirement rates, I see 7-8 for NB and 10-12 for WB. If fedex were to loose some portion of the postal contract which comes up for renewal in the next year or so, you could easily tack 2-3 years to those timelines. Probably about what the guys that were hired in 07 were facing. I would not wanna be a new hire here, camping out on reserve in a Memphis crashed dodging bullets for the foreseeable future... This is not a far fetched outcome with the current management strategy of shrinking the company into profitability. I predict a sizable voluntary exodus for those with 1-2 years on the property. I think a lot of guys are waking up to reality...

Pretty sure at last report, FedEx is still profitable. Maybe not at the "hookers and blow" level they got used to during Covid, but still profitable. Let's do our best to keep things in perspective. FUPM.

If your assumptions are correct we are going to furlough about 1000 pilots next month, that's the only way that math works. If that's the case anyone hired in the past 3 years won't "voluntarily" exit.

agreed. However at the instructor meeting this week JB said the manning is perfect. Not over not under

I will say that it looks as though the Downbid if you are displaced will be in your current seat and not allowed to ITU to a different airframe. Downbid syllabus is 2 events. ITU is 90 days. Which do you think is cheaper?