Kenny Powers

Am I the only one that is getting tired of the mantra, "This place is doomed, go to DAL if you have less than 3 years on property!". To me, it sounds a little self-serving and EXTREMELY short-sighted. Of course you want to see the new guys go as it sends a STRONG message to upper-management. Look what's happening over at SWA. Of course we have our issues, but I think bailing to DAL this premature in the game, before a TA, before we know what the company's long term plans are (i.e., NYC April 5th), seems foolish. And even then, CEOs come and go, business plans change. Did anyone else find it interesting that for the first time ever, we saw Richard Smith on camera speaking to us the other week? It wasn't just 6 months ago that the script was completely flipped! If it doesn't turn out that way, and they truly want to pillage Express, then yes, maybe the grass is greener. For now, stay the course, stay united, and nothing less than an industry leading contract!

-KP (Less than three years on property)

oncewasgood

Constantly chasing greener pastures is an exercise in futility.

windshearmaxthr

Yea I agree with you. The fact is nobody knows what’s gonna happen. Everything going around is rumors based on feelings and vague things the company has said. To make a decision on your career based on fear and rumors is pretty idiotic in my opinion. Hopefully we will know more during earnings call this month and April 5th. Im not saying some of the rumors are not true or they shouldn’t be entertained but that’s all they are, rumors.

Coffeepilot1

Where can you watch what RS said? I never saw that.

Huck

I know what's going to happen:

1. Delta's going to furlough someday
2. Folks are going to be real glad they stayed here

Yeah, I know, I'm an old guy who's been in this business for 30 years, and my father was in it for 25 years before that. I should keep my mouth shut.

I just can't cope with this brave new world where the airline business cycle's been defeated. Sounds too much like wishful thinking to me.

We'll see who's right.

opt0712

Was sent to your company email. Q4 Business Update

Coffeepilot1

Thanks I didn’t notice it. I recently read Boeing’s forecast for future segments such as express freight. I believe it was a year ago but the facts are still the same. Forecasted express freight growth 3-6% a year for the next 20 years.

TransWorld

They also said there would be growth in US and European airplane demand.

China, Latin American, and African airplane demand will be at much greater rates.

All of this growth can be impacted, short term, by recessions and black swan events. But, long term they will be blips.

Pilot hiring demand in the US, will still be huge, compounded with mandatory retirements.

Smoked

https://www.aircargoweek.com/boeing-forecasts-air-cargo-traffic-to-increase-twofold-over-the-next-20-years/

https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/more-signs-of-some-improvement-in-air-cargo/

Maybe I'm an optimist. But, I feel like covid caused us to have an "overinflated balloon" scenario. The problem is it had a slow leak. Now we're back to a realistic level of business. Realistic because of the global economy, inflation, and the war in Ukraine (airspace closures, high fuel prices). It's all adding up and we're feeling the pain. But, according to the long term outlook we are going to come out of this rut. It's hard to look past the DAL contract and farther than 6 months in front of your nose. But 8 months ago this was THE place to be. Why did all of you legacy guys come here? I'm sure it wasn't a decision that was taken lightly. What has changed? DAL landed a whopper, that's all! Now it's our turn to ink what is deserved.

Won't say too much about the legacies. But from my view in the cheap seats, they are now riding the wave with their inflated balloon scenario. Yes there's pent up demand for personal travel. But tell me how many families out there can afford to fly around the country/world more than once a year right now? I know my family has chosen the car over a plane multiple times. See "slow leak" above... it can't last forever. And as someone eluded to above, the legacy CEO sees an opportunity to pocket every ounce of that current demand. Hire, hire, hire... oh darn, we don't need this many anymore. Sounds a little like the purple covid balloon and hiring wave. And last I checked, they don't have similar protections like we do in terms of furlough. I don't think the govie is going to throw cash at the problem again outside of a world pandemic size downturn.

I do think the next few years, say out to 2025-2026, will be a transitional time for us. DRIVE and Network 2.0 are scary with using more belly freight and having McKinsey weiners poking around our palace. But as global demand increases (see link #1) and we become a more efficient operation in the same number of years... where may that lead us? I hope to a better place. And I'd like to believe that our highest forms of leadership want the same thing at the core of their efforts to trim the fat. I feel it's short sighted to act like this is about destroying Express and pilots lives.

Thank you all for your thoughts here, both positive and negative. It can be hard to stay healthy when drinking the APC poison. But, it's also a good thing people are identifying areas for improvement. Let's use that ammo and get ourselves the contract we deserve. Someone nailed it in another thread. Legacy CEOs should be saying "FedEx is different, we can never offer you what they get." It's not the other way around.

Less than 1 year and not going anywhere until there's a valid reason.

coryk

Can I get the winning lottery numbers too?