DLax85

.........+1

kwri10s

The same thing that would happen every day once they remote manage the aircraft. After the plane lands, the loaders unload him/her.

The tech already exists to remote pilot all our planes. Just convert a floor in the training building for vehicle remote flight. With a bit of human factor engineering and each of us (previous FDX pilots) can over see 4 active flights. We'd have dispatchers supporting 4 ROV pilots and a reserve pilot to back up the floor. The actual flying is done via autopilot which can include taxi, takeoff and landing. Just in case the FAA might mandate an actual person in the cockpit for emergencies that cannot be handled from the ground. Everything already exists technology wise to implement that tomorrow. Will it take 10 years, maybe. But it could be done much sooner if the public/gov't ever decided to get on board.

The are doing fully automated truck "convoys" in other countries, once auto drive becomes the norm, do you see the public clambering for multi crew members in their aircraft. The change will start small with maybe the single engine feeders out west. Once companies get a taste of automation, and the savings on salaries and benefits do you ever see them going back? Maybe we never go fully unmanned on aircraft over say 12,500. Too many 911 memories for the public to agree to large craft being completely unmanned. But will we still be "flying" the planes? Doubtful.

Fdxlag2

Until there is a fire in a control panel that knocks out the floor and 150 aircraft are all aimed at Memphis at 1130 at night. Should I be worried about the Data Loss EICAS I get crossing the CO KS or PA NJ border? Certainly it is feasible small scale and eventually will be large scale. But not now, not in 20 years.

tomgoodman

Ever since the Redstone rocket, loss of signal has posed a risk to unmanned vehicles and whatever lay beneath their flight path. Therefore, one member of the guidance & control team was a technician called the “Range Safety Officer”, with a large red button on his console.....

Adlerdriver

Dude,
You are making some very big leaps from what's technically possible to what's realistically feasible given the current industry infrastructure in place.
Key distinction which seems to be lost on you. In order to handle incapacitation contingencies, single pilot ops is essentially the same thing as remote, non-pilot ops. So, the first step in this process is to completely automate the aircraft. Single pilot ops isn't an interim "baby step" toward remote ops.

Single pilot ops isn't just a "mod" to an existing aircraft. In addition to completely automating (and having a qualified operator standing by on the ground for the whole flight), the entire flight deck would require re-design. Until ATC moves past spoken VHF comm and into NextGen operations, the option to use single pilot ops in 121 operations is a no go (for that and many other reasons).

Just because the tech exists to make the aircraft fly by themselves doesn't mean it's going to be readily implemented. I'm assuming you're talking cargo only ops for this move away from pilots. Do you really think FedEx is just going to scrap the brand new 777s and 767s they're buying right now to invest in this? They're not going to spend a penny until the MASSIVE amount of regulatory hurdles are dealt with. That means Boeing or Airbus aren't going to sink millions into developmental costs on aircraft designs until potential buyers are on board.

On top of that, there's no way in the next 10 years that the FAA is going to allow unmanned cargo aircraft (or even single pilot) regardless of their size to integrate with pax birds flying in and out of our normal airports. So, what does FedEx do? Buy up a bunch of outlying suburban airports to get stuff "close" to LAX, JFK, HKG, et al? Highly unlikely.

I'm going to retire in about 10 years. We can revisit this discussion then and see if we're even a tiny bit closer to the fantasy world you're envisioning. I seriously doubt it.

kwri10s

Well let's try to work through your issues. First, I hope it never happens. I like my pilot job and I hope it is there for my kids if it's where they want to work. But sticking my head in the sand and saying it will never happen is not exactly helping either.

Let's start with communication. The AF is already flying unmanned drones all over the US. Granted they don't mix it up with the regular flights, but there is already the backbone of a communication network between the FAA controllers and the remote operator. Enhancing that capability for civilian carriers is a regulatory change and additional procedures for the FAA. Nothing that could not be solved in a couple years.

Automating the aircraft is probably the easiest of the tasks. A few new boxes in the nose and bingo. The tech already exists, it is only a software update from applying to a 757 or a 777. There won't be a global change to aircraft design. Just mod the current aircraft. Much easier than turning a three seat DC10 into a 2 seat MD10.

FDX has already been spending money in drone development. If we as pilots think that the FAA won't move quickly because they normally don't, think again. If FDX, UPS, Amazon start banging for change on capital hill, the FAA will figure it out quickly. Here is an Amazon job ad: https://www.amazon.jobs/en/jobs/5369...ager-prime-air

My dirty crystal ball would project an implementation that starts with FAA route changes being pushed to our in flight FMS boxes and we just accept. That change is then automatically updated into our flight plan which the aircraft then flies. Next a ground ops implementation would have to take place where we toggle ready for pushback/taxi and then we are approved via data link. A fairly simple algorithm would allow ATC to smooth flow directional departures by controlling who taxied in what order and from which part of the airport. Lastly from a controlling standpoint, the entire process is projected across every plane's flight plan and controllers can then assign very specific controls. Our plane at level off might be given a 3 knot reduction to hit a crossing time at BLUZZ for the arrival.

I guess my point is not to be too pessimistic, but also to recognize the threat that is out there. I suggested that we put in the last contract a statement that all FDX flights will be manned by at least two FDX pilots off the master seniority list. I added that to every web poll I took. We need to at least start to protect ourselves. It's not the technology we have to watch out for, but the potential loss of future new hire jobs for others. Fully automated aircraft with pilots in the cockpit will be the last sign we are a dinosaur looking up at the pretty asteroid. We should not wait until then to start to prepare as a union.

By the way, add some of these possible scenarios or projections into the "why are we looking at changing our retirement" discussion.

BlueMoon

Take it a step further, wouldn’t it be easy to automate ATC. A computer could probably figure out what speed reduction/route/vector is easier/effiecent and radio it to an aircraft faster than a controller ever could.

I would think automating ATC could be easier than automating aircraft. So I think that could happen before fully automated planes.

Plus I hear they have a shortage equal to or greater than the “pilot shortage”

Adlerdriver

"All over" is a bit of an exaggeration. And you're exactly right, they don't mix it up with regular flights and for very good reason. That's not suddenly going to change because FedEx wants unmanned 777s to be able to fly the Downe 4 into LAX.

A few new boxes? Come on.
The 757 is early 80's vintage and the 777 is only about a decade behind that. Do you really think those jets are only a software change away from full automation? Far from it.

Every single piece of hardware we touch and actuate manually would need a mod. Normal ops and irregular ops. Starts, fuel controls, fire bottles, CSDs, FCP, gear, flaps, etc. There's no current digital interface with any of those cockpit controls, so there's nothing for a "software update" to do. If you're talking about doing that, it would definitely be on the same scale as a DC-10 to MD-10 mod.

Hardly a monumental task with enough money, but to claim a little visit from the software or even firmware fairy is all that's required is simply not accurate.

Like I said.. If we even get close by the time I'm ready to punch, you can re-post this and call me a dumba$$. But I'm willing to bet that won't come to pass. No head in the sand, just reality vs. fantasy.

Huck

Don't forget that every single country we fly over is going to have to agree to this. And they won't receive any benefit for it.

And it still doesn't sound cheaper.....

DLax85

In truly free markets there’s never a shortage

There may people that don’t like the price though