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Old 07-25-2020, 12:16 PM   #41  
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The above is nailed. I was at ATP mins and getting ready to apply when this came down. As mentioned, the days of ATP mins being good enough to get hired aren’t going to be back for a good long while. Once the backlog of 121 and military guys clears, there are going to be those guys who just missed getting hired pre-COVID, managed to stay in a CFI job (or a similar ‘time building’ job), and have a few thousand hours racked up. You’ll be competing against them.

The pendulum will eventually swing back to the point where they’ve hired all the high time guys out there, and they still need pilots—that’s when they’ll be back to snagging anyone who is ATP eligible. How long will that be? My uneducated guess would be at least a few years...at LEAST.

I’m walking away—for now, at least. Without divulging too much, I was a non-121 professional aviator for a decade before trying something else for a little bit, thinking the airlines would always be there. I thought wrong. I see the writing on the wall, and it isn’t pretty.

I mentor a couple guys who want to fly professionally. My advice lately has been to avoid the pilot mills. They aren’t too terrible when the job market is good, but you don’t want to crush through your ratings in 3 years, just to be sitting on near six-digit loans with the airlines not yet recovered. I’ve been telling my guys to find another path, preferably one that they enjoy and pays well, and acquire ratings and hours on the side. If things bounce back, they can always bail and take out a loan and finish up. If they don’t, they can proceed slowly, enjoying the flying they’re doing, not racking up a ton of debt.
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Old 07-31-2020, 09:05 AM   #42  
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Default It’s now got even worse...

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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
it’s actually somewhat worse




The early retirement programs will have prematurely retired many of the senior pilots that would have been retiring from the legacies over the next 1-4 years and several of the legacies are now downsizing because they don’t expect either international or business flying to be coming back any time soon, so there is that.

Come 1 October there are Likely going to be people at both regionals and majors furloughed. It gets worse for the regionals next year, because several will be affected by the scope agreements from their major once this year of greatly decreased flying by the major is accrued in the books. Those scope agreements will force less flying at the regionals as a consequence of this years less flying at the majors. Because if that, it is very likely several more regionals will go out of business, furloughing their pilots as well. So there is that.

Up until about six months ago all the military pilots eligible for retirement (less a handful of flag officer or wannabes) and a whole lot of military pilots coming up on the end of their ADSC were putting in paperwork to get out. Well THAT came to a screaming halt, and all those people pulled their separation paperwork or retirement paperwork and are now just sort of hanging out. That is already 500 pilots and increasing by 1000 pilots a year.

All of these people are going to be hired (or rehired) long before anyone who doesn’t already have an ATP and a type rating in AT LEAST a CRJ or Q400. That’s just reality, so you are probably looking - assuming passenger demand becomes normal next summer and you meet criteria for an ATP - at being behind at least 3000 or so far better qualified and more competitive other people competing for a substantially reduced number of Regional and major job openings.

Yeah, that’s absolutely nothing like you were told to expect when you started your training - probably three or more years ago if you are anywhere close to ATP mins now, and that sucks. But it is the reality, or at least a close approximation of it.

A couple of new developments.

Expressjet has now joined the ranks of Compass and TSA in being shutdown. That’s another 1300 regional pilots, many with over a decade of regional experience, now being added to the 1600 or so already furloughed when Compass and TSA were shut down. But that hasn’t stopped the bleeding at the regional level. WARN notices have gone out to the junior pilots of a number of other regionals. Furloughed regional pilots could easily top 4500 by 1 October.

United has indicated that they may be furloughing as many as 3900 pilots in two different waves. That’s a third of their total pilot group. It takes two waves because of the training churn caused by furloughs in multi-type fleets where someone can easily find themselves displaced into an aircraft they don’t have a type rating for. And this is even after exhausting the volunteers for early retirement. But it isn’t just the 3900 additional well trained And competitive guys added to the backlog, it’s the reduced flying that United and other Majors with scope limitations are doing this year. Some of those scope limitations are based - at least in part - upon total mainline flying hours while others are based on total mainline narrow body flying. The former has been hit hard by COVID and the latter by retirement of older airframes as fleet types are eliminated to try to rein in the training churn and overhead. Both will put downward pressure in scope, which may be reflected in more regionals going out of business next year.

Now this too, will pass, but the job picture is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets much better, and the longer it takes to get back to normal, the greater the backlog of military fliers ready and able to become ex-military fliers. It may be a decade before 121 job conditions are as favorable for a guy or gal with a new ATP as they were only two or three years ago.
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Old 07-31-2020, 02:23 PM   #43  
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I am sitting at r-atp minimums. I can’t even get a flight instructor job at this point. Class dates are cancelled until further notice. I have learned a valuable lesson- I will definitely not be putting all my eggs in the aviation career basket because I now see how fast all these companies shut down and leave their employees with nothing

I agree that its definitely going to get worse before it gets better- but a decade is a bit a of a stretch to predict.

A few things are going to happen in the fall and winter

1. Possible vaccine ‐ I won't be getting it, but even Fauci thinks they will have something.
2. Election- no matter who wins any political motivations for the shutdown will be gone.
3. Normal people will stop caring about the virus that 99.5% of people survive and go back to living normally including business and leisure travel. The news will have some new big story to sensationalize for profit.
4. Zoom won't replace all international business travel and liesure travel will increase for millennials that have money- because they value experiences over possessions.

Also you only mentioned United. I guess everyone is still waiting for AA, DL, FedEx, and Southwest to say something.

Regional jets are still a desired mode of transportation- even if they don't have a legacy name plastered on the side. Look at how successful JSX was until the pandemic.

Airforce is going to still need pilots and last I checked they were still offering retention money. Also isn't there a huge shortage from the last recession where they weren't training pilots?

Its bad, but not bad for a decade bad. I expect the bottom to come this winter and to be in training at a regional before 2022 is over with my current qualifications and minimal flying to stay current while I continue to work my regular local government job
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Old 07-31-2020, 02:27 PM   #44  
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That military retention bonus $$$ is about to go up in smoke. I’ve got Navy VFA buds who are like dogs sliding across a linoleum floor—a year ago they couldn’t wait to get out, and now they’re doing everything in their power to stay in.

Active duty and guard slots have suddenly become incredibly competitive.

Call me a pessimist, but I would say that getting hired at a regional in 2022 would be an absolute best case scenario. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
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Old 07-31-2020, 03:58 PM   #45  
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Originally Posted by VegasChris View Post
I am sitting at r-atp minimums. I can’t even get a flight instructor job at this point. Class dates are cancelled until further notice. I have learned a valuable lesson- I will definitely not be putting all my eggs in the aviation career basket because I now see how fast all these companies shut down and leave their employees with nothing

I agree that its definitely going to get worse before it gets better- but a decade is a bit a of a stretch to predict.

A few things are going to happen in the fall and winter

1. Possible vaccine ‐ I won't be getting it, but even Fauci thinks they will have something.
2. Election- no matter who wins any political motivations for the shutdown will be gone.
3. Normal people will stop caring about the virus that 99.5% of people survive and go back to living normally including business and leisure travel. The news will have some new big story to sensationalize for profit.
4. Zoom won't replace all international business travel and liesure travel will increase for millennials that have money- because they value experiences over possessions.

Also you only mentioned United. I guess everyone is still waiting for AA, DL, FedEx, and Southwest to say something.

Regional jets are still a desired mode of transportation- even if they don't have a legacy name plastered on the side. Look at how successful JSX was until the pandemic.

Airforce is going to still need pilots and last I checked they were still offering retention money. Also isn't there a huge shortage from the last recession where they weren't training pilots?

Its bad, but not bad for a decade bad. I expect the bottom to come this winter and to be in training at a regional before 2022 is over with my current qualifications and minimal flying to stay current while I continue to work my regular local government job




Quote:
CORONAVIRUSPublished July 28
Spirit Airlines says 20% to 30% of workers at risk of furloughs
Workers at risk of being furloughed include pilots and flight attendants

Quote:
AIRLINES

Delta CEO sends staff memo thanking 17,000 employees for leaving, says it gets airline closer to ‘minimizing furloughs’


PUBLISHED THU, JUL 30 202011:27 AM EDTUPDATED THU, JUL 30 20203:23 PM EDT

I wish you all the luck in the world, but the effect of this year’s decreased flying on the allowed scope for most regionals will not even start until March 2021. At that point there will be ADDITIONAL regional furloughs and/or closures putting more guys with 121 experience on the street. Reportedly, GOJET just sent WARN letters to everyone including management which means that Hulas May have decided to get out of the regional business altogether. Which, if true, puts ANOTHER 600 highly qualified and experienced 121 pilots on the street.

As for JSX, I have a friend there who thinks it’s an OK place to work, but it’s got a grand total of 135 pilots. Four JSXs wouldn’t offset the closing of GOJET alone. And as I said, for the regionals it is likely to get worse before it gets better because scope will be decreasing as mainline flying decreases. For damn sure, the major airline unions are not going to give scope relief - not with their own members furloughed. So barring major airlines going into bankruptcy (which might happen) and the bankruptcy judge voiding existing scope provisions (possible but unlikely), regionals are going to be getting smaller. That may provide opportunities for 135 operations - like JSX - but there will be heavy competition even for those jobs.

As for your other assumptions about this fall and winter, I don’t even disagree, but you overlook the economic issue.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...t-quarter-ever

The GDP just took an annualized 33% hit. That is huge. It’s unprecedented. And it doesn’t really matter if COVID 19 did it to us or if we did it to ourselves by overreacting to COVID 19, the damage is done and it will take the country some time to recover.

Last edited by Excargodog; 07-31-2020 at 04:15 PM.
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Old 07-31-2020, 09:51 PM   #46  
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Quote:
Frontier employs 2,634 flight attendants and 1,590 pilots, including 758 captains and 832 officers. On Friday, 925 flight attendants and 559 pilots received WARN notices that they could be furloughed.

The Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act of 1988requires employers to give notice at least 60 days before a large-scale furlough, layoff or plant closure.

Quote:
The 275 pilot furloughs will come in addition to 220 corporate and support employees that have either already been let go or face furloughs on October 1, in line with job protection provisions included in the CARES Act. Management says driving down labor costs will be key to its goal of achieving breakeven cash burn by year end.

“Our focus continues to be on driving down labor costs and improving productivity—doing more with less employees in all aspects of the organization,” Allegiant chief operating officer Scott Sheldon said on the travel company’s Q2 earnings call July 30.
Not looking real good guys...
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