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How busy is your flight school?
Hey guys,
How busy are flight schools right now? Trying to see what the effects of COVID are. I've been working at a 141 school for over a year. There is so little work at my school that I'm going in once a day for 3hr a day. You guys think its because students are afraid to get COVID? Are people reluctant to enter the industry because of the economic ramifications from COVID on the airline industry? Curious on everyones thoughts |
I manage a Cirrus Training Center so our situation is likely different than most. 99% of our clients are learning to fly as a hobby or for their personal travel needs. Very few are training to become professional pilots. From March 15th to mid-June, our flight training operations were down 95%. Since reopening and flying with masks, enhanced cleaning procedures, reduced hours, etc, our operations have returned to about 80% of our normal business. We have seen an increase in new clients interested in learning to fly so they have an alternative to traveling on commercial airlines.
I have spoken with friends at 141 schools that specialize in professional pilot career paths, and they all seem to be doing fewer operations. Some students have been unable to travel to the United States because of travel bans, and others have postponed training due to the negative impacts of COVID on the airline industry. |
I can only speak for the school I work as a CFI for (the ever controversial LIFT). Operations are full speed ahead now. There are some COVID related procedures relating to being around the building, but we are basically back to full capacity.
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I just recently jumped ship from Auburn training to ATP. Auburn took a break and resumed training May 26th and has been going since then. AFAIK from my friends back in AUO it's running through some hiccups right now but they are training and very active. I won't get political here, but basically anywhere you go with a primarily conservative training base/leadership it's safe to say you'll see fewer COVID safeguards and as a result more "normal" busy flight training. From my experience in Auburn it definitely ticks both of those boxes haha...
If I'm not mistaken they pay approx. 22-23ish per hour for PPL students and 24 or 25 if you are a CFI w instrument students. Multi pays 26 if I remember correctly. |
Originally Posted by thefauxfox
(Post 3111802)
I just recently jumped ship from Auburn training to ATP. Auburn took a break and resumed training May 26th and has been going since then. AFAIK from my friends back in AUO it's running through some hiccups right now but they are training and very active. I won't get political here, but basically anywhere you go with a primarily conservative training base/leadership it's safe to say you'll see fewer COVID safeguards and as a result more "normal" busy flight training. From my experience in Auburn it definitely ticks both of those boxes haha...
If I'm not mistaken they pay approx. 22-23ish per hour for PPL students and 24 or 25 if you are a CFI w instrument students. Multi pays 26 if I remember correctly. Im down in Florida and yeah our COVID precautions are just taking peoples temp, mandatory masks inside the building, and staff disinfecting stuff. Schools still slow though. We're getting signups just not at the pace we used to, and we've lost some instructors because of it |
Originally Posted by stevecv
(Post 3112040)
Im down in Florida and yeah our COVID precautions are just taking peoples temp, mandatory masks inside the building, and staff disinfecting stuff. Schools still slow though. We're getting signups just not at the pace we used to, and we've lost some instructors because of it
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Originally Posted by DontLookDown
(Post 3112226)
Are the instructors that you’re losing managing to find other flying jobs or are they bailing on the industry until this all recovers?
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I attend a part 91 flight school in central Virginia. The CFIs are still booked solid. Plenty of folks getting their private & instrument ratings. Still a few of us pursuing commercial and ME ratings with a goal of going career. About half a dozen of us students to split time with. Plenty of fresh blood walking through the doors looking to get started.
I hope it keeps up, I'd like a job myself once I'm done with my commercial work. |
Central virginia? Does this flight school have the initials AA?
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L3 furloughed and laid off a lot of instructors in Florida
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Maybe the current climate is effecting Pt. 141 schools more than 61? seems to be the case from what I'm seeing in this thread
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Originally Posted by stevecv
(Post 3114616)
Maybe the current climate is effecting Pt. 141 schools more than 61? seems to be the case from what I'm seeing in this thread
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I’m a p61 CFI in the NE and am fully booked, and very grateful!! Recently coming out of Covid, I thought it might be 50/50 pleasure/career... but upon recent further analysis of my students, it’s probably closer to 80/20... I’m grateful for the flexibility p61 provides!!
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Seeing the drop off in career students is an interesting insight into human psychology.
This career is like playing the stock market. You want to get in when things are bleak and not when things have been going great for a long time. Most people seem to not grasp that concept. Even before COVID, we all knew the reset was long overdue. We were just hoping retirements would muffle the devastation. No such luck. Now that the reset has happened though I’d argue it’s a great time to get the training started. 3-4 years from now someone just starting out today will have their ratings and time logged as the airlines start looking to hire 1500 hour pilots again |
Originally Posted by DontLookDown
(Post 3114837)
Seeing the drop off in career students is an interesting insight into human psychology.
This career is like playing the stock market. You want to get in when things are bleak and not when things have been going great for a long time. Most people seem to not grasp that concept. Even before COVID, we all knew the reset was long overdue. We were just hoping retirements would muffle the devastation. No such luck. Now that the reset has happened though I’d argue it’s a great time to get the training started. 3-4 years from now someone just starting out today will have their ratings and time logged as the airlines start looking to hire 1500 hour pilots again |
Also, most don’t know that training during a downturn is actually ideal. It isn’t exactly common knowledge outside of the airline circles.
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Originally Posted by neverposts
(Post 3114050)
Central virginia? Does this flight school have the initials AA?
I'm one of those guys in training. Finishing up my Commercial rating by early October. I know the next few years are going to be tough but my hope is that by the time I've got 1500 hours the regionals will be looking for FOs again. Just not 100% sure what to do between now and then. There's a glut of CFIs out there and that market is going to remain saturated for the duration until we see a recovery. I was hoping for Alaska 135 work, but that dream crashed when Ravn declared bankruptcy. |
Originally Posted by DontLookDown
(Post 3114837)
Seeing the drop off in career students is an interesting insight into human psychology.
This career is like playing the stock market. You want to get in when things are bleak and not when things have been going great for a long time. Most people seem to not grasp that concept. Even before COVID, we all knew the reset was long overdue. We were just hoping retirements would muffle the devastation. No such luck. Now that the reset has happened though I’d argue it’s a great time to get the training started. 3-4 years from now someone just starting out today will have their ratings and time logged as the airlines start looking to hire 1500 hour pilots again Maybe, maybe not. Some people returned in the 2014-2019 timeframe because the career looked promising and nearly bulletproof for the first time in 50 years. 2020 exposed that as a lie and proved that even in the greatest "shortage" times this career is very volatile and unstable. Some have seen it for what it really is and got out. |
Originally Posted by Varsity
(Post 3117404)
Maybe, maybe not.
Some people returned in the 2014-2019 timeframe because the career looked promising and nearly bulletproof for the first time in 50 years. 2020 exposed that as a lie and proved that even in the greatest "shortage" times this career is very volatile and unstable. Some have seen it for what it really is and got out. Anyone getting out of the aviation game at this point is going to miss out on the peak that is ahead of us. Demand is going to come back like a freight train and a lot of the guys who took early retirement are done. They're not coming back. |
Originally Posted by JayMahon
(Post 3120966)
I don't know where they'd go. I've worked in a variety of industries outside of aviation over the last 20+ years and they are ALL volatile and unstable. There are no guarantees out there. If you think aviation got hit by covid and that shows aviation is weak, you might want to look at just about every other industry out there having similar struggles.
Anyone getting out of the aviation game at this point is going to miss out on the peak that is ahead of us. Demand is going to come back like a freight train and a lot of the guys who took early retirement are done. They're not coming back. The problem with that mindset is you aren’t considering the amount of highly I mean highly qualified pilots on the street. That’s just the beginning.....come October 1st you add thousands. The bleeding is going to continue until vaccine or people stop caring. The big three airlines are going to look nothing like they did pre Covid. Side note.....I’m not trying to be a Debbie downer just giving my two cents. Been flying commercially for 20 years and the recovery will be extremely slow. The only advice I can give is follow your dreams. cheers |
My dentist’s son is in middle school and has a passion and aptitude for being a pilot. She says he is discouraged and many consider something else.
The reality is 2029 is his college graduation year. Add some time to get 1500 hours, the Covid-19 recovery will be behind us. Furloughs all will have been called back. Massive pilot retirements will be making being a pilot a high demand career, once again. Always have a good four year college degree in something he can fall back on, I say. Too many things can happen. Being a pilot is a great career, but always have a contingency. Fecess Happens. |
Originally Posted by TransWorld
(Post 3121462)
My dentist’s son is in middle school and has a passion and aptitude for being a pilot. She says he is discouraged and many consider something else.
The reality is 2029 is his college graduation year. Add some time to get 1500 hours, the Covid-19 recovery will be behind us. Furloughs all will have been called back. Massive pilot retirements will be making being a pilot a high demand career, once again. Always have a good four year college degree in something he can fall back on, I say. Too many things can happen. Being a pilot is a great career, but always have a contingency. Fecess Happens. The next hiring spree is 2024-2029 historically speaking. 2030-2033 will be another “black swan event” that brings about furloughs. These things are starting to get predictable |
Originally Posted by DontLookDown
(Post 3122422)
He’ll miss the window.
The next hiring spree is 2024-2029 historically speaking. 2030-2033 will be another “black swan event” that brings about furloughs. These things are starting to get predictable |
What does a passion and aptitude to become a pilot look like in a 12 year old?
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Originally Posted by TransWorld
(Post 3122767)
I’m glad you can backdate predict forward looking black swan events. This is one of the most hazardous things to do. I do not want you to manage my investments.
The peaks and valleys of this industry have almost found a rhythm |
Originally Posted by DontLookDown
(Post 3123050)
basically everyone on this board seems to agree there is a pattern of industry resets that occur approximately every 10 years.
The peaks and valleys of this industry have almost found a rhythm If fair dice are thrown 5 times in a row, and each time they come up snake eyes, what are the odds they are going to come up snake eyes the next time: A. Greater than 1 in 36 chance B. Exactly 1 in 36 chance C. Less than 1 in 36 chance (Each die has 6 sides, so the odds of it coming up 1 is 1 in 6. The second die is the same. So 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36) The answer is B. Exactly 1 in 36 chance. The dice has no memory. You get suckered in to the other options because your emotions say it must be. Since it happened 5 times in a row, it is certain it will happen again, next time. Since it happened 5 times in a row, there is no way it will happen again, next time. Your emotions are wrong. Will there be a black swan event in the future? Yes, of course. But it could be a year from now, or 20 years from now. Each year has an equally likelihood. |
Originally Posted by Yumyum
(Post 3121359)
The problem with that mindset is you aren’t considering the amount of highly I mean highly qualified pilots on the street. That’s just the beginning.....come October 1st you add thousands. The bleeding is going to continue until vaccine or people stop caring. The big three airlines are going to look nothing like they did pre Covid.
The days of any regional tossing out free ATP classes and bonuses to attract someone with 1500 hours are gone, and they won’t be back for a number of years. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3123239)
Absolutely. Three regionals have already gone under as have a couple 135 operations. And that’s before 1 October. And people forget that the military cranks out about 1000 potential airline pilots a year, guys who have either gotten to retirement eligibility or have at least served their ADSC. And For the last 6 months most of those guys have pulled their paperwork, stayed in, and are waiting anxiously for a better hiring environment. All those guys are going to get picked up before Joe CFI with bare ATP minimums is going to get a shot.
The days of any regional tossing out free ATP classes and bonuses to attract someone with 1500 hours are gone, and they won’t be back for a number of years. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3123239)
Absolutely. Three regionals have already gone under as have a couple 135 operations. And that’s before 1 October. And people forget that the military cranks out about 1000 potential airline pilots a year, guys who have either gotten to retirement eligibility or have at least served their ADSC. And For the last 6 months most of those guys have pulled their paperwork, stayed in, and are waiting anxiously for a better hiring environment. All those guys are going to get picked up before Joe CFI with bare ATP minimums is going to get a shot.
The days of any regional tossing out free ATP classes and bonuses to attract someone with 1500 hours are gone, and they won’t be back for a number of years. No one knows what the recovery will look like. Hiring again at minimums based on pent up demand is a possibility. People will want liesure travel. It may not be as profitable as last minute business travel- but it will still fill seats. When people stop caring about the virus (I stopped caring 6 months ago) things are going to come back. There are a couple of important dates coming up: October 1 November 4 Hopefully the election(no matter who wins) will kill the politicization of this and we can move on. |
Originally Posted by VegasChris
(Post 3123379)
Is the military requiring longer commitments from the guys that all of a sudden want to stay?
I know companies like ameriflight are requiring a training contract so guys can't leave. I would think the military is trying to keep as many of their pilots as long as possible. No one knows what the recovery will look like. Hiring again at minimums based on pent up demand is a possibility. People will want liesure travel. It may not be as profitable as last minute business travel- but it will still fill seats. When people stop caring about the virus (I stopped caring 6 months ago) things are going to come back. Hopefully the election(no matter who wins) will kill the politicization of this and we can move on. Right or wrong, an expectation has been created. That it is an UNREALISTIC expectation hardly matters. The quickest vaccine ever produced was the one for Ebola, and that took 4 years. And that is to produce a vaccine. Actually getting enough people immunized that it will make a difference will take longer. But that doesn’t matter, because about two-thirds of the population won’t want to open up the economy until everybody has the vaccine and the other third will be refusing to take the vaccine at all. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3123413)
Depends. Certain events, training or a PCS move, can trigger an additional ADSC, but it simply doesn’t matter. The pilots they train don’t just disappear. And of those they train, an average of about a thousand a year will eventually wind up Airline pilots. It may be less than that in any given year (When hiring is poor) and more than that (When hiring is good), but ~1000 a year is the average. Maybe more now that the rotary guys are getting into the act.
It’s complicated. They also have limitations on rank too, and some things - like flying fighters - is largely a young person’s game. Eventually, yeah. But right now there are fewer jobs, many of the people that would have retired over the next three years have already been retired, as have a lot of aircraft. And a huge surplus of people already with 121 experience are standing between those people who do not yet have 121 experience and those regional jobs. It will still fill seats for those majors that can make money flying those pax. But they can’t fly these people at a loss. Different airlines have different business models. Some are highly dependent on business and international flying. Some are not. Furloughs routinely drive up average cost per seat mile because you are furloughing the lowest paid pilots and retaining the highest paid pilots. For multi type rating fleets, the training churn can become very significant. perhaps. But for the last 20 years we have sort of created a culture of snowflakes. That’s why we got the ‘mission creep’ from ‘flatten the curve to keep ICUs from getting overloaded’ to ‘keep it locked down until a vaccine fixes things.’ Right or wrong, an expectation has been created. That it is an UNREALISTIC expectation hardly matters. The quickest vaccine ever produced was the one for Ebola, and that took 4 years. And that is to produce a vaccine. Actually getting enough people immunized that it will make a difference will take longer. But that doesn’t matter, because about two-thirds of the population won’t want to open up the economy until everybody has the vaccine and the other third will be refusing to take the vaccine at all. To be on topic, I side gig at a school in eastern NC. Never shut down. Masks are pretty optional. Not much decrease in business. I think the school will grow slower than it has now that people are spooked, but anybody who was already in isn’t folding their hand. |
Originally Posted by flyinthrew
(Post 3123420)
When I was reading this I said “Is this excargodog talking?” I scrolled back up and lo and behold. You’re the most negative optimist I’ve ever seen. Or maybe the most optimistic negative person. Either way, I mostly agree with you.
So yeah, times are going to be tough for a few years. |
Originally Posted by VegasChris
(Post 3123379)
Is the military requiring longer commitments from the guys that all of a sudden want to stay?
Short of being passed over for promotion twice, you can stick around for another set of orders and then bounce, if you’d like. Most people take the DH bonus (175k for 5 years) when they stick around, but I believe you get to keep a pro-rated share if you decide to bail early—IOW, you aren’t locked in like the initial service commitment. Many of my buddies are simply not resigning, or are rescinding their resignation letters...and taking a set of follow-on orders... ...although the cynic in me is imagining the look of sheer delight on the faces of the guys at PERS as they distribute belt-fed tubesteak via message traffic... But hey, at least IAs aren’t really a thing anymore. |
Enough students to get to 1500?
Hi All,
Before Covid, does anyone have a gauge on how long it actually took to get to 1500 as a CFI? I know the training centers will quote 18 mo, but is that realistic? Reason I ask, (seems to me) that each student would need to train 4 students to get the additional ~ 1200 hours needed to get to ATP. Is the pipe expanding that much? Or does this model require a lot of students going to low hour time building like pipeline monitoring and skydiving? It just seems like the path to 1500 as a CFI requires a lot of luck and sales. I could see there being a lot of variance in the 18 months quoted by those big pilot factories. Any thoughts appreciated :) |
Originally Posted by HollywoodPilot
(Post 3125475)
Hi All,
Before Covid, does anyone have a gauge on how long it actually took to get to 1500 as a CFI? I know the training centers will quote 18 mo, but is that realistic? Reason I ask, (seems to me) that each student would need to train 4 students to get the additional ~ 1200 hours needed to get to ATP. Is the pipe expanding that much? Or does this model require a lot of students going to low hour time building like pipeline monitoring and skydiving? It just seems like the path to 1500 as a CFI requires a lot of luck and sales. I could see there being a lot of variance in the 18 months quoted by those big pilot factories. Any thoughts appreciated :) Pre-covid, obvi. |
Originally Posted by HollywoodPilot
(Post 3125475)
Hi All,
Before Covid, does anyone have a gauge on how long it actually took to get to 1500 as a CFI? I know the training centers will quote 18 mo, but is that realistic? Reason I ask, (seems to me) that each student would need to train 4 students to get the additional ~ 1200 hours needed to get to ATP. Is the pipe expanding that much? Or does this model require a lot of students going to low hour time building like pipeline monitoring and skydiving? It just seems like the path to 1500 as a CFI requires a lot of luck and sales. I could see there being a lot of variance in the 18 months quoted by those big pilot factories. Any thoughts appreciated :) Sent from my BND-L34 using Tapatalk |
Originally Posted by HollywoodPilot
(Post 3125475)
Hi All,
Before Covid, does anyone have a gauge on how long it actually took to get to 1500 as a CFI? I know the training centers will quote 18 mo, but is that realistic? Reason I ask, (seems to me) that each student would need to train 4 students to get the additional ~ 1200 hours needed to get to ATP. Is the pipe expanding that much? Or does this model require a lot of students going to low hour time building like pipeline monitoring and skydiving? It just seems like the path to 1500 as a CFI requires a lot of luck and sales. I could see there being a lot of variance in the 18 months quoted by those big pilot factories. Any thoughts appreciated :) Very unlikely. Figure on average 75hr a month at a good gig. Wx, Mx, student cancellations etc. will happen |
Originally Posted by stevecv
(Post 3125789)
Very unlikely. Figure on average 75hr a month at a good gig. Wx, Mx, student cancellations etc. will happen
It would be interesting to understand if the "Pilot Mills" can support that level, since my understanding is that they specialize in commercial pilots and dont really train PPLs off the street. The follow up to that is how many graduates of large flight training academies take them up on their offer to be a CFI, and how many look elsewhere for more time. Thanks for all of the replies! |
Originally Posted by HollywoodPilot
(Post 3125936)
Thanks for the notes. So, sounds like at a typical 61/141 shop, the number of non-commercial students can sustain a budding commercial (ATP) pilot.
It would be interesting to understand if the "Pilot Mills" can support that level, since my understanding is that they specialize in commercial pilots and dont really train PPLs off the street. The follow up to that is how many graduates of large flight training academies take them up on their offer to be a CFI, and how many look elsewhere for more time. Thanks for all of the replies! |
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