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Pilot shortage myth?

Old 08-31-2013, 06:56 AM
  #21  
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A shortage of pilots - no. A shortage of experienced, sane, personable, professional, well-qualified, with a clean record who you'd want to hire pilots - absolutely. It's just starting to crank up. Fit into what I just described and you cannot help but to succeed in this business.
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Old 08-31-2013, 07:41 AM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by Cubdriver View Post
There is a fair amount of chatter on the Regional forums about a present day shortage, but as an aspiring airline pilot I have been making the rounds in this segment during the last 12 months and quite to the contrary I see nothing solid supporting this claim. I am less sure about the future, as credible sources seem to agree a shortage is pretty likely.
Completely agreed. The old Captains I respect greatly are the ones telling me about a shortage. Can't it be that seemingly credible sources are being fed garbage by non-credible sources? The Airlines and ALPA are completely full of it.

I too have been in the trenches for the last few years, and I've seen nothing but a massive surplus of pilots willing to undercut each other and slit each other's throats for job.
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Old 08-31-2013, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by JohnnyG View Post
Completely agreed. The old Captains I respect greatly are the ones telling me about a shortage. Can't it be that seemingly credible sources are being fed garbage by non-credible sources? The Airlines and ALPA are completely full of it.

I too have been in the trenches for the last few years, and I've seen nothing but a massive surplus of pilots willing to undercut each other and slit each other's throats for job.
Really? Where? Can you be more specific? What group of Pilot's are you referring to when you say this? No flame bait, just curious where you are getting your info.
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Old 08-31-2013, 03:23 PM
  #24  
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United hasn't cold called me yet....shortage?
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Old 08-31-2013, 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by hindsight2020 View Post
United hasn't cold called me yet....shortage?
Your on the "short" list.
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Old 08-31-2013, 04:09 PM
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Originally Posted by JohnBurke View Post
There has never been a pilot shortage. There will not be a pilot shortage.

Schools and universities have been crowing about it for years. They continue to be wrong.


I dunno....

I've talked to American and Skywest and both said they will be hiring in the coming months. This will certainly be the 1st time American would be hiring in a LONG time.
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Old 09-01-2013, 08:02 AM
  #27  
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Originally Posted by UnderOveur View Post
All the high points seem to have been touched upon, save one...make that two.

1) Population growth.

This is a pretty interesting website:

World Population Clock: 7 Billion People (2013) - Worldometers

Quote:

"A tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in less than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987). During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.

According to the United Nations, world population reached 7 Billion on October 31, 2011. According to the most recent United Nations estimates, the human population of the world is expected to reach 8 billion people in the spring of 2024."

NOW HOLD THAT THOUGHT A MOMENT...

2) There is yet another major consideration few people are discussing, anywhere outside of investment and manufacturing circles...

The global, social, and economic impacts of On-Demand 3D printing. This is a rather LARGE topic, but the main gist of it is this...

It is going to radically reduce the costs of just about anything manufactured anywhere in the world today.

So...

Population growth + radical cost reductions due to a new technology with the impact of the advent of the radio, or electricity, etc.

Could mean very big things for commercial aviation, and the demand for same.

Just a thought...a new twist?...on an old topic.

That said, seems like population growth alone (all else remaining equal) will virtually guarantee increasing demand for commercial flight as the world population grows by another billion between now and 2024.
Possible, but population growth will not translate automatically to economic growth unless that population is equipped to participate in an industrial society. more poverty and ignorance is not going to translate to ticket sales.

I suspect that most growth in demand for air travel will occur in Asia, and that's not a big leap of imagination.
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Old 09-01-2013, 09:51 AM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by PROFILE CLIMB View Post
All flight schools Will tell you that there is an upcoming pilot shortage. I myself am very skeptical I have been talking to older pilots this rumor circulated for many many years. I'm an older student pilot and I don't think I have a great career as a pilot because of my age however talking to old-school pilots say I don't have a chance, however talking to flight schools who is happy to take my money they say yeah go for it. I myself am very skeptical of this so-called pilot shortage I don't think I ever will be one, I think it will always be a plentiful supply people who want to fly so therefore there will never be a shortage, So what are your thoughts on this mythical pilot shortage, Fact or fiction?
OMG you guys, there is most certainly a need for hiring into the majors and shortage at the bottom end will occur. If you are qualified as few have said here, get to a regional, upgrades will accelerate and because all the regional pilots mentioned will have to fill the seats at the big three or 4. retirements will occur. For every retirement there are two out on medical. reserve rest rules etc. Delta peaks out at 800 retirements per year in three or four years, the other 400-600 per year, all ifs, but if the airlines stay the same size, the replacements have to come from the regionals and few mil guy/gals. reserve at a major, no likely, hired into a wide body like 2005-6 at CAL and DAL possible. The numbers are here, anyone can do the math.

Someone mentioned don't be in a hurry...what? Be i a hurry. Get that 1500 hours and get on the list, 1500 hour thing is gonna take time unlike the past of getting hired with 350 hours to fly an RJ.

It'll be a frenzy, older major guys are out of the loop and most don't know what it's like to get hired these days, airlines really haven't hired,

I say don't hesitate and go for it, get your time and degree all lined up for some quick movement.

would I tell my son or daughter to get into the business, NO, but if you are headed that way, don't delay.

I am not selling anything just optimistic for an older person not thinking there is an opportunity, compared to some here that treat this issue like global warming, this will actually happen.

Good luck to those that want this!!
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Old 09-01-2013, 10:30 AM
  #29  
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The majors should be well off for a very long time. Any pilot who works for a major that I have talked to says that a possible shortage is a joke that the media uses to fill their time with.

With that being said, across the country their are fewer and fewer people getting their commercial certificates, let alone an ATP or instructor ratings to build time. AOPA is reporting that student pilot dropout rates are nearing 80%. That statistic cannot be ignored. People can be skeptical about the next 10-15 years of hiring at the majors, but sooner or later the lack of new pilots and the horrible pilot retention rate will catch up to us.
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Old 09-01-2013, 04:39 PM
  #30  
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There has never been a pilot shortage. There will not be a pilot shortage.

Schools and universities have been crowing about it for years. They continue to be wrong.
So, when UAL was recruiting pilots in High School, and hiring those with a HS Diploma and a PPL....that was NOT a pilot shortage???
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