Pilot shortage myth?
 

All flight schools Will tell you that there is an upcoming pilot shortage. I myself am very skeptical I have been talking to older pilots this rumor circulated for many many years. I'm an older student pilot and I don't think I have a great career as a pilot because of my age however talking to old-school pilots say I don't have a chance, however talking to flight schools who is happy to take my money they say yeah go for it. I myself am very skeptical of this so-called pilot shortage I don't think I ever will be one, I think it will always be a plentiful supply people who want to fly so therefore there will never be a shortage, So what are your thoughts on this mythical pilot shortage, Fact or fiction?

......use the search function, you're beating a dead horse......

There might be a shortage at the regional level because of the low starting pay and recent increases in required qualifications.

The regionals may be panicking, but the majors are not too concerned...there are a lot of 50-seat RJs in the regional fleet which will be going away over the next 5-8 years, so even if some regionals have to park airplanes due to lack of pilots the majors wanted some airplanes parked anyway.

There will likely never (in our working lifetime) be a shortage at the major airline level, ie I cannot foresee a situation where anyone with ATP minimums and a reasonably clean background would automatically get hired at a major without previous turbine time...I think there will always be more qualified applicants than jobs.

And, no don't believe anything flight schools tell you. Your career potential depends on your age, how many hours and ratings you've already accumulated, whether you have a 4-year degree, and how flexible your lifestyle is. Having significant savings or outside income stream also enhances your career prospects because it gives you the flexibility to chase career progression without as much concern for finances early-on.

Exactly.. You need to be debt free to be able to afford to be a CFI or Regional FO.. And you are looking at 5 years in those 2 positions minimum, which start less than 15k(gross) and end at less than 40(gross) before getting promoted, if you are lucky enough to not get laid off before then (or shortly after)... I don't see how anyone could live on that with any kind of loans, let alone without.. Get a job somewhere else and train at an FBO.. This is what I'm about to continue doing as soon as my College loan is paid off.. It's important to not be in any kind of rush in this field.. I'm almost 29 now with about 110 hours.. I won't step into it full time until the starting pay is reasonable and livable, since I have a good (but terribly boring) office job now.. The WSJ is talking about China sucking up all the US pilots (for 270k a year!), and the retirements coming.. Time will tell, but either way it's best to be diversified, like how I am playing it.. I'm not holding my breath for the supposed shortage, but I still do enjoy flying the Cessna / Twin on weekends, on the positive side of debt.. Never give a flight school any money up front either..

I agree I don't believe that there will ever be a pilot shortage. I would like to as I am a new CFI aspiring to work for an airline one day, but I don't think it will ever happen.

I know one guy working at a major right now and have met many others. One thing that they have all told me is that people at my stage will have good career's. I think they are referring to seniority and upgrades but I can't be sure.

Flight schools will tell you anything to get money. I understand that some schools are hurting. From what I have observed, the schools that seem to be doing the best right now are the ones with a lot of foreign students that are just going back to their homeland to fly. Once again this is just a personal observation and I have not hard stats to prove it.

You hear it all over the websites though, a plot to bring more students into an already expensive industry....?

In my opinion, the best time to get into the business is when there is a lot of negativity in general before or at the beginning of a hiring growth period. If everyone wants to be a pilot and the majors (as a whole) are hiring thousands a year and you're just starting our. Your probably getting in on the end of a growth spurt and historically you're probably looking at a cyclical down turn and years of stagnation. The opposite is usually true during bad times.

Just my thoughts.

I personally think you should not pursue this path unless you are debt free. For the following reasons:
1. Age 67 increase looming
2. Single pilot aircraft being produced
3. As of now, consolidation of aircraft at all levels to bigger ones
4. A lot of furloughs and early military opt outs.

Basically, if you don't have a commercial as of yesterday, it would be pretty risky. They always try to say there is a shortage, but the reality is management makes it cheaper to swap out planes than to pay pilots more. They advertise shortages to get a resupply of cheap labor. At your expense!

there is always a shortage of pilots willing to fly for low pay. there is also fewer Americans being trained as commercial pilots. CFI can get hired around atp mins now. the great schedules are to find. it all points to a lack of pilots or a lack of pilots that are willing to work for little.

There has never been a pilot shortage. There will not be a pilot shortage.

Schools and universities have been crowing about it for years. They continue to be wrong.