Flag of Convenience worst case/most likely?
 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_convenience

If the NAI threat materializes and our industry goes in the direction of the maritime shipping industry what do you all see as how it would shake out?

Trying to wrap my mind around just how bad it could get, how fast, and also what the most likely scenario will be. Who loses the biggest first?

What are the major factors and variables?

I'd imagine with the global supply of qualified pilots there's a bit of a limiting factor built in.

Also, it's not like Boeing and Airbus can limitlessly surge their production to match NAI or NAI-modeled demand, so I'd imagine these FOC companies would have a limit on their growth based on their ability to acquire aircraft. Would the used market help alleviate this?

Are we talking decades? Years? Months?

Who will be the first to fall? Who's most vulnerable? NAI in FLL does what to whom?

In personal discussions with acquaintences I have seen little to zero hesitation of potential travelers if given the option of paying a "normal" fare, versus a deeply discounted ticket from an NAI-like company.

Looking to opening a discussion on this... I'm trying to find literature on the maritime industry... if anyone has any suggested materials please let us know.

Most likely is we will see downsizing of some a/c. I would expect that flying a 321 across the pond will be common in 15 years. The reality is that at the end of the day you still need to feed Transatlantic flights. Just because you can lower your costs doesn't mean that flying a 787a with 50% load factors will work.

Worst case scenario: this will play out just like it did in the maritime industry. This is to say all American flag legacy carriers will be unable to compete with the foreign flag model and go out of business entirely, just like the US cruise lines did. Foreign airlines will transition to the foreign flag model, just like SAS already is. New companies will be founded under a flag of convenience, seeking to take advantage of the changing market and a new oppourtunity. Foreign flag carriers will get their transatlantic feed from Spirit, Southwest, Jetblue and the like.

Best case scenario: few foreign airlines adopt the new model, and new startups find it difficult to grow and establish themselves at a healthy pace. Legacies need to cut back, but the large number of retirements prevent any furloughs.

This industry is always changing, the precedent has already been set, and it would be foolish to think that things will look even remotely the same in 10 years.

The 321 NEO has very limited ability to fly across the pond. West Europe to the NE at best.

As long as cabotage restrictions remain in place then the legacies may just lose some market share. If cabotage is repealed it would mean the absolute destruction of most US airlines.

I don't think you will see that because it would cripple the US military ability to deploy.

This would be the key, but I'd check how the MMPS ships are flagged.

How do you figure? Cabotage restricts domestic routes to US flag carriers only. How would travel between two US cities interfere with military deployment?

The US airline industry is what now deploys the US military. Cripple the US airlines and you cripple your ability to deploy.