Shortage of Pilots - Impact on Part 91/135 Op
#1
XOJET Citation X
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Position: DO, Baker Aviation, Citation X
Posts: 323
Shortage of Pilots - Impact on Part 91/135 Op
"Super-rich may soon have to traipse to check-in desks at regular airports and slum it on commercial planes instead of private jets due to global pilot shortage which has sparked intense recruiting from commercial airlines"
- Aircraft seller Colibri Aircraft says 98,000 new private plane pilots are needed between now and 2038
- The shortage is down to major commercial airlines offering high salaries and steady work
- Before, private jet owners had a wide roster of pilots to choose from and could afford to be picky
- Experts say it has now switched and pilots are turning away the work
- It is down to a wider shortage in the number of commercial and private pilots
- Boeing previously estimated the world needed 800,000 pilots over the next 20 years to keep up with demand for travel
Full article below:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/t...uper-rich.html
Questions/Discussion:
1. Impact on aircraft sales as described
2. Impact on wage pressure in Part 91 world vs. Part 135 world
3. Growth potential for business jet ops
Interesting times and unprecedented in terms of leverage shifting from employers to employees.
#3
XOJET Citation X
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Position: DO, Baker Aviation, Citation X
Posts: 323
What would you point to that makes it slanted?
A world wide recession would probably minimize some of the shortfall...less demand but the aging of the pilot fleet will continue regardless of recessions or not.
Would a lessening of demand of pilots for new planes, retiring pilots at 121 operations match the reduction in pilots positions that would result in a recession?
Hard to say but some lessening of the demand for pilots would occur.
If there are other variables they left out I'd be interested to hear your view.
I think they simply took some numbers/projections from companies that are in the know for what is being bought/sold/retired from their airline/Part 135 customers.
As far as indicators the shortage is occurring:
Some Part 135 ops are offering "part-time" positions for pilots, one rotation a month versus the standard 2...that wouldn't be happening unless normal schedules weren't enough of a lure to get pilots to be "semi-retired"
The first signs of a shortage are the recent (18-24 months) of increase in regional pay + bonuses. If there wasn't a shortage regional FOs would still be making sub $20K salary and they aren't.
SWA, Delta, JB are setting up aviation tracks for zero to hero flight training...never been done before in the US.
Regionals asking for and getting relief on the 1500 ATP hr rules.
Past 9 yrs seat capacity has been reduced on RJs by 4.5%.
Mainline has increased 14.5%
It won't happen overnight but regionals will feel it first as evidenced above and that means the Part 135/91 folks will be feeling it also.
The only relief valve for these two groups are the increased pool of retired 121 drivers...that is if you can entice them with enough money to lure them from the golf course, fishing pond, i.e. part-time jobs.
Just my $.02
A world wide recession would probably minimize some of the shortfall...less demand but the aging of the pilot fleet will continue regardless of recessions or not.
Would a lessening of demand of pilots for new planes, retiring pilots at 121 operations match the reduction in pilots positions that would result in a recession?
Hard to say but some lessening of the demand for pilots would occur.
If there are other variables they left out I'd be interested to hear your view.
I think they simply took some numbers/projections from companies that are in the know for what is being bought/sold/retired from their airline/Part 135 customers.
As far as indicators the shortage is occurring:
Some Part 135 ops are offering "part-time" positions for pilots, one rotation a month versus the standard 2...that wouldn't be happening unless normal schedules weren't enough of a lure to get pilots to be "semi-retired"
The first signs of a shortage are the recent (18-24 months) of increase in regional pay + bonuses. If there wasn't a shortage regional FOs would still be making sub $20K salary and they aren't.
SWA, Delta, JB are setting up aviation tracks for zero to hero flight training...never been done before in the US.
Regionals asking for and getting relief on the 1500 ATP hr rules.
Past 9 yrs seat capacity has been reduced on RJs by 4.5%.
Mainline has increased 14.5%
It won't happen overnight but regionals will feel it first as evidenced above and that means the Part 135/91 folks will be feeling it also.
The only relief valve for these two groups are the increased pool of retired 121 drivers...that is if you can entice them with enough money to lure them from the golf course, fishing pond, i.e. part-time jobs.
Just my $.02
#4
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: Speed tape and prayers
Posts: 376
I meant that the article a few times referenced the 1500 hour rule as a cause, rather than the low salaries that regionals were unwilling to raise until recently. The shortage isn't caused by the "daunting " task of reaching 1500 hours, but by the failure of the airlines to properly pay new pilots, and then after the 1500 hour rule, their unwillingness to change said pay rates.
Yes, retirements and expansions play a large role as well, but unless I missed it, low regional salaries were not mentioned.
Yes, retirements and expansions play a large role as well, but unless I missed it, low regional salaries were not mentioned.
#5
XOJET Citation X
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Position: DO, Baker Aviation, Citation X
Posts: 323
I meant that the article a few times referenced the 1500 hour rule as a cause, rather than the low salaries that regionals were unwilling to raise until recently. The shortage isn't caused by the "daunting " task of reaching 1500 hours, but by the failure of the airlines to properly pay new pilots, and then after the 1500 hour rule, their unwillingness to change said pay rates.
Yes, retirements and expansions play a large role as well, but unless I missed it, low regional salaries were not mentioned.
Yes, retirements and expansions play a large role as well, but unless I missed it, low regional salaries were not mentioned.
It will be interesting to see as the pay goes up in the coming years how many will be drawn to that versus a love of aviation...one can't feed a family on "Love of aviation" however.
Thanks for the clarification. Good point.
#6
I meant that the article a few times referenced the 1500 hour rule as a cause, rather than the low salaries that regionals were unwilling to raise until recently. The shortage isn't caused by the "daunting " task of reaching 1500 hours, but by the failure of the airlines to properly pay new pilots, and then after the 1500 hour rule, their unwillingness to change said pay rates.
Yes, retirements and expansions play a large role as well, but unless I missed it, low regional salaries were not mentioned.
Yes, retirements and expansions play a large role as well, but unless I missed it, low regional salaries were not mentioned.
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: Speed tape and prayers
Posts: 376
#8
#9
Very EU-centric article where pay for charter/corporate is very low by comparison to the US and operators have typically been pretty casual about crews. In the US, pay for experienced pilots has risen dramatically which has put pressure on bottom-feeding 135 operators. I’ve seen charter operators with 900 hour jet F/Os.
GF
GF
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2018
Posts: 241
Corporate and charter outfits have two choices: actually pay market rate for running or chartering a plane or send your bottom-feeding executives commercial ... either way the whole industry benefits.
Private ops has been far too subsidized for far too long between tax preferences, long term glut of available crews, favorable regulatory oversight.
Private ops has been far too subsidized for far too long between tax preferences, long term glut of available crews, favorable regulatory oversight.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post