Frontier Risks
 

There are obviously a lot of good things going on at F9 right now and I am interested in joining the team, but I have some questions regarding the potential downsides or risks of working for F9.

(1) How solid is the A320neo series aircraft order with Airbus? Is it a firm order or is it subject to cancellation going forward?

(2) What guarantees are there, if any, that the aircraft orders won’t get reallocated to other Indigo Partners air carriers like Volaris, Wizz Air, and JetSmart?

(3) Spirit Airlines has a strong head start and presence in the U.S. as an ULCC; they even just ordered another 100 aircraft with an additional 50 options — if all options are executed, their order will be almost as big as F9’s. How is Frontier competing with Spirit and how are they differentiating themselves in order to be successful?

I guess my concern is that Frontier’s projected growth ends up being mostly hype and/or that Spirit is a better option simply because they’re the first mover in the ULCC segment.

1. It’s as solid as they can be. All aircraft orders can be cancelled, sold off, etc. However, it is a firm order from what I can tell.

2. Simply put, there is none. From what I understand, Frontier actually leases nearly all of their aircraft and Indigo has some deal with the leasing companies which is way beyond my understanding.

3. This is a complex question that I don’t think really any line pilots could give you an educated answer to. Our products are similar, our heritage is similar, and our route structure does overlap in some areas. Spirit runs a better operation and that is a fact based on numbers. However, there is a lot of country in the USA and not all of it is served by ULCCs yet. A big difference is we are privately held whereas Spirit was IPO’ed by Indigo Partners years ago.

Your main concerns seem to be about long term stability and growth, which is going to be a huge question mark going forward for all companies. It’s certainly a gamble, but based on your username, so is waiting for your flow-through in an industry that is very cyclical in nature.

Thank you for the response. I think you probably better identified my main concern even more than I was even able to do. You highlighted what makes me raise an eyebrow toward Frontier, particularly your response to point 3. Frontier may end up doing very well for itself and I hope it does, but it feels like a direct spin-off of Spirit at this point. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, their model has been proven to make them resilient and highly profitable. However, it’s a race for market share in the ULCC expansion and I think Spirit has the first mover advantage. It seems like Frontier’s advantage is their potential international network with Indigo Partners and deep pockets through private equity.

All that said, I’m less inclined to gamble with my career by going to Frontier. It could pay off huge going there, but I’m more inclined to want to work at Spirit or JetBlue. Guess I’m going to do more research on F9; I didn’t realize their aircraft had some sort of leasing agreement tied to them.

Yeah definitely JetBlue
Go for it!!
You got this champ !

And this is why every post you've ever made is questionable.

I think you might be overestimating the importance of "first mover advantage" in this industry. Just my opinion. I can't think of a whole lot of instances where this played much of a role. Airlines seem to thrive and dive for so many varied reasons.

On the other-hand, the international network, if realized, would be a game changer, setting Frontier apart for a long time to come.

Just a couple thoughts (worth what you paid.) Good luck with your decision.

Sounds like op wants question to the age old question that has no answer, "What will happen in the future?"

Remember, it's all just academic unless you have a CJO. Good luck with your choice.

I feel like the OP is like a lot of people I’m starting to run into. They want me to convince them to come here. They want to know why they should come here over going somewhere else, but don’t take the time to do their own research (OP you are researching!) Had a guy one time ask me how it is here, I told him where I’m based and he goes “oh I didn’t know you had a base there?” Oh no? It’s only our second largest base. Then he progressed to ask for an LOR...

Realistically you’re never gonna know if what you did was the right choice until the end of your career. I’m not a company cheerleader, but I feel as though I made the right choice coming here over going to Spirit.

flights.google.com

I put in a random AUS-MCO as that is a route Frontier and Spirit compete on. The dates were 1/16 to 1/20 round trip.
Frontier - $96
Spirit - $104

This is what people see, they don't care about who came to the market first.

Another one Spirit just started doing to compete with Frontier is PHL-SJU, same dates.
Frontier - $248
Spirit - $271

I'm sure there are some where Spirit is cheaper, but I'd say in general Frontier is a cheaper airline to operate. As stated in a previous post Spirit runs a better operation, yes. Running a better operation costs more money. IMO I'd love to see Frontier put actual dollars into the system to make it run better, for now they do not see the benefit. Which means even though we don't run as smooth, we're still selling more tickets doing it this way. Also, there is plenty of room for both Spirit and Frontier to succeed, Spirit has only recently become aggressive as direct competitor. For quite a while the two have kept off each others toes, but now Spirit is coming after Frontier instead of exploring new markets. It's a interesting strategy, we'll see how it plays out.

I'm not a fan of Indigo, but I've said it before, they are great at making money.

Great points all. I remember Siegel saying we would be the Target and Spirit the Walmart. We're totally the Walmart! Ha, that's ok too. I'm glad I'm here.