1st quarter earning call.
 

For those that think a new contract is coming soon, you might want to listen to that Q&A. They mentioned they are a ways away from having to think about CASM increases due to a new pilot contract. Our attrition numbers are right on par with what they had planned and the legacy contracts took years to negotiate so they aren’t worried in the short term. Plan on a long drawn out fight.

We shall see. If I was an investor, I would want to hear that also. Considering they are offering new hire bonuses, I am sure they need a new contract quickly to keep people around and gather more. Not sure how much a new contract would even affect the CASM, if it does, it would be very little.

edit- Barry also just said "Frontier continues to be an attractive place for pilots" It is all what they want to hear while giving money to a company. You don't want to tell them to their faces that we are losing a lot of pilots and having to hire low time pilots out of flight school compared to other carriers hiring ones mainly with 2k+ hours.

Wow. They got absolutely drilled for their peak off peak comment and the plan to change the operation accordingly. I think they are correct in their plan but the presentation was way off at the beginning. I think they finally recouped toward the end but we shall see with price movement tomorrow.

But ya. No contract for some time. OP and I heard the same thing. “Attrition right on target. 10 years you can make more at F9. Excess crew staffing…later called over staffing.”

On a positive note
2 AC leases confirmed extended until 2028
15 more aircraft coming this year
11.8 hours utilization for March
22% growth and raised guidance
83% load factor


Many more nuggets but that’s enough for now

Are they actually still saying this?? Absolutely no shame in this management group. You have pilots on property at DAL for less than 12 months making more than 12 year captains at F9. Will it last? Maybe, maybe not. But that statement, as of today, is demonstrably false.

they get away with it since we have a union who lets them get away with it.
the comment about the cost of a new contract not being considered in ‘24 cost is amazing. That was a really stupid comment. Shows exactly what they are thinking. If you’re sitting on a cjo at UA hoping for a good contract here, you need to go get that seniority number now.

Care to explain / post an example?

Yes, you are right... 12 month FOs at DL making more than 12 year F9 CAs is indeed, demonstrably false.

He said 12 months on property at DL. Which there was reports of 757/767 FO upgrading with less than 6 months. Whose 1st year pay rate is $55ish higher than 12 year F9 CA.

DL 2 year CA 320 rate is 254, F9 12 year is 262. The 2 year DL CA will be commuting to reserve for the foreseeable future. Sorry, not a realistic comparison.

And look, I am not arguing against the glaring disparity between the 2 pilot groups, but we should make realistic comparisons.

I'm referring to their new TA which has 2023 pay at 310/hr for year 2 320 CA.

I won't argue disparity between the two either, so let's get back to realistic comparisons.

Commuting.

F9 upgrade is just over 3 years, currently. I won't throw guesses out on how that timeline will probably shift, but with AB delays and the IR call yesterday, I will let others guesstimate.

According to FFTPilots, F9's junior CA line holder is just over 4 years, with the longest CA reserve wait to hold a line, 20 years on property.

F9 has CAs on property for 20 years waiting for a line. The average time on property as a CA, according to FFTPilots, is just under 7 years, across all domiciles.
Before you say, that 20 year on property reserve time is only DEN, I challenge you to think what would happen to the average reserve time across F9s domiciles, to the junior CA line holders and FOs, if those 20 year CAs on reserve in Denver decided to go grab a line across all other domiciles. My best guess, it would not lower the reserve time across the 7 other domiciles.


Those pay scales are some old info.

If you want current numbers,

2023 Delta Yr 2 CA 320 rate 307.69/hr, and Yr 12 CA 320 rate 335.13/hr
2026 Delta Yr 2 CA 320 rate is 349.43, and Yr 12 CA 320 rate 380.61/hr

F9 Yr 2 CA Rate .... 219.47 // Yr 12 270.07

I'd Say F9, F9 pilots, and F9 future pilots should absolutely be widening their scan to pull in these realistic comparisons across the fleets.

Management needs to find better ways to convey their message. 15% drop today.

So if we dont see a new contract for at least 3-4 years... What is the point of "being last in the pattern" when everyone else is gonna get higher pay raises and be on higher 4-5 year scales than our 1st year? Will our NC actually try to compensate for this? or just take the lesser and be done?

To a very large degree, that's already happened.

Look at the top of every Captain bid list, they are all Denver people. Every domicile. Nearly the entirety of the LAS bid list are people who live in DEN.

If they grew DEN and a lot of the people that are in other stations were able to/chose to come back to DEN, the other domciles would get much more junior. The 300ish, 15+ year captains that either live in DEN or want to live in DEN have a significant effect on the seniority the whole airline over. They are all the most senior and all concentrated in one city. It's a very odd situation vs other airlines. It makes it more difficult to compare

Now that is a very good question!

Frontier Airlines = Worst Airline of 2022
Frontier Airlines Pilots = Worst Paid Pilots 2023 through the unforeseeable future.

This is the EXACT concern I had last contract negotiation. We were told by the MEC and NC that we were SO FAR behind, the offer the company made was the best we were going to get because it was SUCH a drastic improvement and no mediator would ever recommend/allow self help. So we should accept the offer (which we did).

Seems like it's happening all over again.

And it's been proven that a 2 yr Delta pilot can make quite a bit more as a CA (albeit on reserve) in the 75/76 or 320 than a 12 yr CA at F9. And there ARE 2 yr CAs at Delta (but not at F9).

That's a great point that I agree with. The key word/phrase, I believe, is if they grew DEN. I know it is somewhat in place to grow with those awesome ground gates, but take a look at what is happening with the UA and SW battle for gates and their desire to expand in DEN. I am not holding my breath it all materializes as growth for F9, as the hopes are, knowing how the company will do anything to make a penny extra.

I hope it will turn out to be growth, for the whole systems sake.

Yeah, I am not sure how anyone can justify having a contract ratified 3-4 years later than another with the same rates is "fine". If anything, we need to start at whatever year the majority of other companies are at as far as pay, then increase from there. Ridiculous that we might likely see 315/hr in 2026 when everyone else is making 360-380/hr. just to get a new contract a couple of years later and probably be in the 400s.

Last in the pattern? More like permanently behind the industry for 4-7 years.

I will be voting no on any crap that slides my way with pay rates that do not match the current standard for industry pay. NC better get on it.

Agreed.

I think the one thing the greater pilot body needs to put the kabosh on is the thought process the NC has about rates not mattering. I remember the MEC mentioning that they could care less what the rate is as long as the opportunity for soft time is the greatest - thereby allowing us to make more money while working less.

This is such backwards thinking.

Don't get me wrong - I like soft time and a contract that affords me lots of it. But this company has found every loophole around them. Our premium pay occurs VERY SELDOM and is often less than 200% (as compared to other airlines that usually START at 200%). We don't have a daily pay (the duty period crap is for the birds). Our reserve time is greater per month. Our vacation day accrual rate is less comparatively per year of service. Our health insurance is more expensive. AND, to top it all off, we have the worst rates of any major not named Allegiant. Our rates are so bad, that as some times we have greater attrition than we have accessions!

All because we were so far behind last time and the pilot collective "bought" the NC rhetoric about this being the best there was gonna be and the rate doesn't really matter.

Who cares if there’s more actual vac days if they pay sub 4 credit each. You need to do the math on credit * days. The only carrier that’s better in vac currently is Alaska and that’s after 25 years. UAL for example, they have problems in vac months because the solver blocks thier vac days and awards sub 23 credit. What do you think the rest of the bid period looks like? We need a fifth week and that’s about it. No other changes please.

Not sure I follow...

Our vacation day is 5 hours (35 hrs for 7 days). We're also allowed to assign less or more value prior to bidding to gain less or more flying hours that month (a good thing if you ask me). Our vacation system isn't bad but I could've sworn we accrue less # of days than SW, DL and UA in years 5-10 (but perhaps I'm mistaken).

Regardless of their value, 3 weeks of vaca is better than 2. We may be saying the same thing...

Look at the contract comparison. Multiple credit times vac days. That’s the economic value of our vacation sec. The provisions that go along with that are all fairly similar and don’t add much if any expense. The only economic value thats higher than ours is Alaska after 25 years. Of course that’s assuming payrates are all equal. Next year dl will exceed after 15 years due to their 5th week along with a credit bump. But dl tops at sub 5 credit so we add a 5th week and we’re back on top. Jb is the only other 5 credit but I believe they accrue days at a slower rate.

Ah, gotcha.

Good to know.