reminder: Earnings call - Feb 6, 11AM EST
 

Gentle reminder

https://ir.flyfrontier.com/events/ev...ancial-results

We lost 37 Million in Q4.

Lost 11 Million for the full year of 2023 on 3.6 Billion in revenue.

Breaking even, baby.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/02/06/2824173/30034/en/Frontier-Airlines-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-2023-Financial-Results.html

Interesting part I don't fully understand: (we made pretax money but reported a loss?)

Earnings

Pre-tax income for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $6 million, reflecting a pre-tax margin of 0.7 percent. Adjusted pre-tax income, a non-GAAP measure, was $7 million, reflecting an adjusted pre-tax margin of 0.8 percent.

Net loss for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $37 million, including the recognition of a $37 million non-cash valuation allowance against deferred tax assets. This allowance does not affect the Company's ability to utilize cumulative net operating losses against potential future income tax liabilities. Excluding special items, adjusted net income, a non-GAAP measure, was $1 million. Refer to “Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial Information” in the appendix of this release.

Cash and Liquidity

Unrestricted cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2023 was $609 million

Companies can use their losses against taxable income. Also, the company can roll these losses forward as needed, and the potential offset is counted as an asset.

A valuation allowance occurs when the company doesn't think (50% or more probability) they'll see that benefit.

Put another way, F9 isn't seeing sufficient future income to warrant a $37M reduction in taxable income.

Put negative $30+M against our 4Q and you have a loss.

Most important thing I heard on the call so far. We’re not planning on a pilot or FA contract until 2025 guidance.

...at the EARLIEST (my take away)

also "No pilot staffing issues"

Yeah, no sh|t.

In their minds they won't be giving us a contract until well past that. And even if they think so, they won't tell investors that they are going to have to pay more to labor

Did anyone honestly believe there was going to be a quick contract? Like really. It took the legacies a couple years. There’s no reason to assume anything less for us.

Frontier stock is up 20% today.

Investors are obviously happy with our results

Mentioned it is included in the 2025 budget. Probably not enough but still.

I would agree that we have minimal staffing issues currently. Attrition is not large enough currently to be a concern. I look at available open time currently as a confirmation. On a related note, I missed a bit of the call. Did I catch 4 lease extensions on older CEOs and no impact from GTF? I only heard it offhand via a question that was being answered.

zero “financial impact” is what he said….i don’t know if that is just clever wording or not….probably is.

I bet there are some out there thinking exactly that since it is their first Section VI.

It's a marathon and not a sprint.

Ya that’s true that was the exact wording. Definitely an improvement over previous guidance but not a clear “zero impact.”

Take in consideration a momentary uptick in stock price does not necessarily indicate increase investor demand. Furthermore, airline stocks were up today, as such ULCC saw a slight uptick with the rest of pack, including SAVE (up14%). Time will tell. Unfortuately, most big brokerage firms are skeptical about ULCC's future, hence the "hold" recommendation.

True. But we did have significant volume associated with the uptick in price, which I view as a positive.

Whether or not that interest is sustainable remains to be seen, which aligns with the hold recommend you pointed out.

(SAVE, DAL, UAL under normal volume averages.)

Barry knows exactly what he is saying

Strange that not one Frontier person on the call expressed opinion, observations, or even "touched" (without prompting) the Spirit/Jetblue merger. Almost like it is radioactive

sometimes it is what isn't said that communicates things....

hope folks are following closely boys

wasn’t P&W supposed to compensated operators financially for their losses? That might be part of the reason it’s “zero financial impact”.

I think if SAVE numbers are bad tomorrow, it will likely boost Frontier as well. Believing that you could be the only significant ULCC left standing would likely cause short term money interest. Even if people don't believe in it for the long term, their money goes where they think it can make money this week/month/year (prob in that order)

If Spirit's numbers are so bad that the Bankruptcy discussion starts again, it will be interesting to see which of the other carriers get the biggest bump. This is where it is tough to watch as a pilot as you see some folks getting screwed for situations way beyond their control. I hope for the best for all pilots, but it does not look so good right now for some. Careful not to rejoice in others misery (not saying anyone here is doing that) because you may be the one in misery in the next cycle.

I flew with a Captain back at TWA who told me an interesting story. Said he had a job offer from TWA, UA, and AA in 1967. It was the easiest decision he ever made. It was totally wrong, but the easiest decision he ever made!! Then had a Captain at UA on our jumpseat who got shot down by both TWA and Pan Am in 1967, so he had to go with lowly United. Every one of his squadron mates in the AF no lie pittied him. Fast forward not quite 30 years and on the first 777 bid available at any airline in the world he was a 777 Cap!

You'll know when you retire which of your decisions were good and which were bad. Remember, that bad piloting can ruin an airline, but good piloting can't save it from bad management!

I don't know about you all, but I get the feeling that manegment will likely heavily low ball the pilot group on the next contract that won't even be here by 2025-2026. They will simply cover attrition with fresh CFI's and exploit cheap labor. Once captains get the opptertunity to leave in droves all they are going to do is offer a 100K sign on bonus and get direct entry captains.

They're literally turning F9 into a regional and it's plain as day. I was hopeful they where going to atleast get to jetblue rates, but in my opinion they will pass a mega lowball deal that only increases rates 15% and they will tell you that's the best they can do. Keep in mind when BL tells us "they simply can't afford to pay industry rates" when they go tell their investors they are projecting a 10% profit and 200 million dollar cost reduction in restructuring the network to 80% day trips by 2025. This all comes on the backs of the pilots who are uprooted from their homes and discplaced to a base across the country to do day turns....

If you're thinking about leaving you should. they continue to say they will open up several new bases as the aircraft orders keep coming.... They certantily aren't filling those vacancies with all new hires. they are filling those positions with you which requires a transon commute. Look at vegas just as an example.

This airline has so much potential to be a career airline, but they have time and time again shown 0 regaurd in improving the pilots QOL or earnings. I'm not going to be sitting around hoping for a great contract and lose thousnads of senority numbers as we wait for a substandard contract.

I think the issue is, has the land scape changed.
-Are the big 3/4 too big to fail? (Pan Am and TWA never had that luxury)

-Will the government pick winners and losers by bailing out some and not others?

-Will the government manipulate the market by denying mergers and acquisitions?

-Will the government/FAA manipulate the market by controlling airport gates and slots?

-Have the legacies figured out how to operate and compete more effectively? Particularly against LCCs? The other thing is all these credit cards these airlines push now. Apparently the real source of revenue is all these credit card schemes.

I think there’s something to be said for a more uncertain career here. But, like you said. You won’t know until you retire.