AI slop and much of it is wrong (none of this is to say Frontier is definitely next, but PLEASE do not make decisions based on biased, incorrect information and reasoning):

Delta and United can afford to offer loss-making economy (and basic economy) seats to fill planes, so that they can generate higher margin revenue up front. The AI is treating airlines as a full commodity, not an industry with several (mostly commoditized) tiers.

Frontier has $5.144B in net debt, compared to $388M in 2025 EBITDAR (a fake # used to give investors a reason to buy overvalued and often unprofitable, capital intensive companies), for 13.3x leverage...a healthy airline should trade at around 6x EBITDAR and should not have leverage over 2x. Just because Frontier's debt is in the form of leases rather than bonds and loans, does not make it not debt...and owning your own planes is better than leasing.

As opposed to Spirit's point-to-point, leisure-heavy model that lets them cut or shift flying quickly without being tied to complex hubs or international commitments? Good job AI.

Spirit only "drifted slightly higher cost" by adding ancillaries after bankruptcy. Frontier is in the process of doing the exact same thing, because it's a way to increase RASM without increasing headline prices, with a minimal CASM impact.

Frontier's major direct competitor is not Spirit, it's Delta, United, American, and Southwest. Frontier had a larger route overlap with all of these airlines than their overlap with Spirit. There is still capacity being added to US domestic route networks, and Spirit's reduction in flying over the past few quarters/years has not helped Frontier's RASM-CASM issue.

More fuel efficient, newer planes are great, but Frontier pays higher lease rates for these. Larger planes have been the focus of Spirit and Frontier to help reduce CASM, but that only works when you are filling the planes and operating routes with enough demand. Frontier's sub-80% load factors (vs say, Ryanair's load factors of over 95%) show that the routes Frontier is flying do not have enough demand to fill out such large planes, and the new deliveries are increasing Frontier's seats/plane from sub-190 a few quarters ago to well over 200, exacerbating the issue. Bigger planes are not always better; some markets can handle them, but those markets often see the majors enter due to their size. The markets that are better fit for low-cost carriers to operate profitably with less competition are generally too small for A321neos.

Also, regardless of whose per-passenger fuel hit was worse, an unprofitable airline burning over $600M in cash seeing their biggest cost input more than double is a massive problem, doesn't matter if it affects other airlines more...airlines price off demand not costs.

The ULCC standard is Delta and United basic economy; Frontier still has no pricing power.

Again, Frontier has over $5B in net debt, and about $300-500M in liquidity. Headline liquidity is $874M, but you should subtract the air traffic liability from cash, as once cash/ATL gets close to or below 1x, card processors will stop letting you pre-fund operations using cash from new bookings. Additionally, the $220M revolver (included in headline liquidity) includes non-standard language that indicates a cash reserve requirement when borrowing against it. That is fine for a stressed but performing business, but if cash drops too low, the revolver becomes useless as the card processor and bank both want cash reserves. Liquidity is only an important metric when judging how long a distressed company can continue operating in the current structure, and should be viewed through the lens of the worst case scenario. In that worst case, the $874M figure turns into $874-ATL-revolver (or at least part of it, depending on exactly how strict the cash reserve requirement is), getting you to somewhere between $300-500M.

Frontier burned over $200M last year even when including over $400M in SLB infusions. Fuel was $929M. If that jumps by even 50% for the full year, and the RASM-CASMx issue is not fixed, that is a huge and immediate issue. Hope the best for all the Spirit and Frontier (and JetBlue) pilots and employees.

Thank you AK26 for exposing the AI amongst us.

Yes. That’s why BB was fired and two years too late. He focused on costs while neglecting RASM. Perhaps change is afoot, perhaps not. Either way it will take time to see the changes.

And for proving that if you are bored it’s only because you want to be.

If you are worried about it, maybe see where you can help improve costs. Single Engine taxi, cost Index even on the go home leg, minimize APU use (it takes about 8 minutes worth of single engine fuel burn at these prices to pay the maintenance contract cost for starting the APU last I heard)

Let the negative comments and downvotes commence.

Your points here are valid and more interesting things to think about than the slop previously posted. Just one comment on the lease cancellations--those were not free. Usually, lease cancellations come with high cash costs, and I suspect that will continue to be the case moving forward.

The recent deal with AerCap was more complex than a simple lease cancellation. Frontier knows that they don't have enough profitable route pairings to take up capacity as much as they had planned for, but also has only been kept afloat due to cash from SLBs. Meanwhile, AerCap would rather not have a customer in financial distress, and simultaneously wants more planes and engines to take advantage of the current pricing environment. So, AerCap allowed Frontier to return 24 planes early in exchange for Frontier "deferring" their 2027-2030 deliveries to 2031-2033, with AerCap stepping in and taking over those slots. With the planes being returned early and an announcement of 48 new engines in their spare engine pool, it seems like AerCap may be parting out the planes and using the engines as spares given the high rates for spares currently. AerCap also has somewhat improved their lessee base--they now have less planes with Frontier and monetized the lease cancellations...in a hypothetical scenario where they had not done that, and Frontier went under later in 2026 or 2027, AerCap would not have a direct claim to the incoming Frontier orders; by preemptively doing this transaction, they reduce their Frontier exposure and secure the valuable 2028-2030 deliveries without paying an SLB premium. And to put some high-level math on it, using Frontier's average gain on SLBs, and discounting back to the present, we get to a present value of the SLBs of about $650M for the 69 planes that Frontier pushed out from 2027-2030. Frontier management sees $90M in annual savings from cancelling those 24 leases, which we can estimate as equivalent to a present value of about $460M for the 8 years of savings, so AerCap got some value here.

The above shows that the transaction is not proof that leasing is better than owning; lease rates are higher than debt costs for any airline that can raise debt (JetBlue is in firmly stressed territory and just raised new debt against their planes at under 7%), and you have more control over the planes, no maintenance reserves, etc. Instead, it is just another benefit of the extraordinarily well timed pandemic neo family order that IndiGo (both Frontier and Wizz) placed. I would also note that with current capacity trends, Frontier probably would have rather deferred 2026 deliveries as well, if not for the cash/SLB issues...they require the SLB cash to continue to operate, and the plan is obviously to try to stabilize the operations before 2027. If that doesn't work, however, 2027 will no longer have the several hundred million dollar cash infusion from SLBs, and the true operating profitability of the airline will become apparent.

Stabilize operations before 2027. As in make a profit?

Kirby might be gunning for F9 next

Actually, since we effectively have no union now, no contract negotiations, and virtually no protections because just about every chair has quit, the only thing we have left is the company, trying to survive in a very challenging environment. I am planning on helping the airline as much as I can. Our new CEO has impressed me a lot more than our interim MEC chair. I have ditched my ALPA lanyard and have officially become a Company man. I can’t wait to start picking up open time. I don’t even care about premium. Go F9!!’

yes.

filler