Rhoads287

Can someone please explain to me why people are saying GoJet won’t be around much longer? What are the details on the delta/united contracts?

calmwinds

TSH is a privately held company. Those contract details are private as a result.

For United, they are capped out with 70 seaters. They are replacing 25 of their 45 70 seaters from June 2019 till December 2019. ExpressJet was awarded these 70 seaters. Since GoJet has exactly 25 of the 45 700’s under contract with United, the belief is that GoJet is losing the United flying. GoJet has to lose a minimum of 5 700’s currently flying for United.

For Delta, their CEO said that he only sees their wholly owned regional, SkyWest and Republic doing their regional flying in the future.

I think both United and Delta’s moves with their closely owned regionals spells bad news for all of the TSH regionals over the next few years.

Wynncore

GoJet has been rumored to be losing flying for several years now and none of those rumors have come true. In fact, none of them have even been close. GoJet offers one thing and one thing only to mainline carriers: A cost advantage over the other regional carriers. Mainline carriers are attracted to that for obvious reasons and have used airlines like GoJet to keep the other regionals "in check".

However, as the industry has started to deal with the "perceived pilot shortage" the smaller regionals with less than 60 aircraft have become rumored targets of shut downs and transfer of flying as mainline airlines would rather rely on larger (SkyWest, Republic) or wholly owned (Envoy, Endeavor) regionals as their staffing, product and reliability are superior to that of the smaller regionals like GoJet and Compass.

As wrong as the rumors have been in the past, I think this time will be different for GoJet as the odds of them losing at least one contract is high. Roughly half of their flying is with United and the other half is with Delta, so even losing just one is very serious. I highly doubt GoJet pilots will literally be on the street should the worse happen, but I would expect that it could be undergoing some big, big changes this year.

Mundergun

He also specifically stated that he “expects gojet to disappear in the next 12 months.”

calmwinds

I do expect the announcement by United to come very soon and I expect the cuts to be at GoJet. I also expect that TransStates will lose their United contracts to ExpressJet. That really only leaves Compass. Endeavor isn’t situated to take Compass’ flying (yet). However, Envoy could absorb Compass’ flying in a heartbeat.

KyberCrystal

If Gojet and Trans States fall apart then Republic will finally be able to buy Compass. There's so much commonality between those two operations it will be an easy merger.

calmwinds

Compass will go to the highest bidder. It will be a gem unless it’s CPA’s are short lived too. Then, it’s suitors will just wait and bid for it’s business when the CPA’s are up. Many expect Compass’ AAL flying to go away when the CPA expires.

ninerdriver

There will be no bidders. Hulas's leverage disappeared when he tried to unload TSA and GoJet with Compass. No one needs to cut a deal with him now that contract expirations are looming.

At this point, there's no reason that the majors wouldn't let their TSH contracts expire, collect any planes that they own, and walk away.

Hulas will be left with a bunch of old 145s that sell for pennies on the dollar and a handful of 900s. The chance to sell the airlines themselves has passed.

4V14T0R

TSH doesn’t own any of the Compass airplanes. What benefit does anyone have to try and purchase it? The likely carriers to accept that flying either have the capacity to accept it or the potential, no need for a messy merger.


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calmwinds

I agree. The only value would be if long running CPA’s exist.