Why did AA go from having 13,000 qualified applicants on file 10 years ago, to only having 3,000 today?

UAL is planning to hire 1200 in 2018. Take away roughly those 1,000 off the AA list, subtract all those that AA hires, and add some that are new to the list. That puts the AA applicant list down to about 2,000 by the end of 2018. Then about 1,000 by 2019, then 0 by 2020.

Sounds like an HR hiring tsunami to me.

If the majors start hiring those with 0 pilot experience, like the military does, then they'll start to catch up to the shortage.

For the thousandteenth time, shortage does not equal scarcity.

With respect to those pilot groups and the people working there, does Spirit struggle finding enough pilots to hire? Frontier? JetBlue? Western Global? Southern? Atlas?

And we're to think unfilled classes due to lack of talent is right around the corner for the legacies and FDX/UPS?

Nope.

At all of the above, they are having various struggles getting enough new hires.

At Atlas, we just had a new hire class programmed for 12 pilots. 2 committed to actually showing up.
7 years ago, Atlas had the pick of the litter. Not anymore...

That's what happens when the labor supply and demand curve no longer favors supply and companies don't increase their compensation as prices increase along that curve.

And yet, metal still moves and those companies are still growing...

That's a direct result of self inflicted wounds. Don't you think the poor labor management relations along with a poor contract outlook affects hiring. I know several that won't go to Atlas for the reasons stated above. The power of the internet is information. All Atlas management has to look at is what happened at Kalitta and Allegiant after their new contracts were announced.

Labor isn't immediately flexible. There just aren't enough qualified pilots for the number of jobs. The top few companies will be a em to staff for now with their current standards but they can't do it indefinitely. It takes 2-3 years to get someone with 0 experience to ATP mins.

^^^^^TRUTH.

Pilots are STILL showing up. We all thought the regional model would have all out imploded by now. NOPE, not even close.....

I know, I know......"they are getting enough pilots!!!!!" Really? Pilots are STILL showing up. Doesn't matter if they're lateral move pilots, retired mil getting currents, career returns, or the R-ATP whatevers.....

Regional feed is STILL flying. It's still a ways away from reaching "critica mass"

For now.......

But see above, Atlas is an ACMI, like a regional. They'll be able to put a band aid on it, when it ACTUALLY reacheds "critical mass".

Agreed, just like the regionals. Although the regionals aren't "growing", others maintain or gain flying from other carriers as the ever present game of shifting "sourcing costs" gets played.

See above, still a long ways away. As long as pilot meets the published mins, THEY ARE QUALIFIED. Just not as competitive as was required previous. Atlas has lowered their "mins" multiple times.

Guess what? DAL has hired MULTIPLE civilian pilots that have barely over 2000 TT and 25 years old. YES, WE ALL KNOW THE HOW/WHY. That doesn't change the FACT that they STILL met the mins. Competitive on the eperience front? Hardly.........