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Old 01-26-2018, 04:04 PM   #1
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Default "Automated" Airmanship

Everyone is familiar with the phrase "automation airmanship." I think we all know what is lingering over the horizon... somewhere--AUTOMATED airmanship.

What are the projections for when Siri takes over the Boeing (presumably opinion-based)? "Hey Siri, shoot the RNAV" in 10 years? 20? 40?

I suspect we will go single-pilot before the robots take over, doubling the size of the pilot labor force. I am curious to hear what others think about the state of the future.

(Please prove me wrong, by the way).
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Old 01-26-2018, 05:44 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Omnivorous View Post
Everyone is familiar with the phrase "automation airmanship." I think we all know what is lingering over the horizon... somewhere--AUTOMATED airmanship.

What are the projections for when Siri takes over the Boeing (presumably opinion-based)? "Hey Siri, shoot the RNAV" in 10 years? 20? 40?
You want that from Boeing?

They're delivering 737MAX jets for the next 5-10 years and those jets will fly for 30+ years.

I don't need to tell you what the cockpit looks like...!
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Old 01-26-2018, 05:57 PM   #3
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GM and Ford didn't develop a driverless car; TESLA did. Similarly, Boeing won't create a pilotless plane (maybe Airbus), but it will likely be a brand new company (that could be bought by a major aircraft manufacturer).

First, that small company will produce a working pilotless plane. That plane will then spend 5-10 years proving that it is safe. Then, someone must build a large part 25 certified pilotless plane. Once some airline buys it, they will have to operate it with 2 pilots for about 10 years before they even think about changing regulations to let it be flown with 1 pilot.

That is about 20 years AFTER someone creates a pilotless plane. Within that time, it is more likely that the economy will crash causing airlines to go bankrupt which will cause the pay rates to be slashed which will make pilots cheaper than R&D.

And as others have said, the major manufacturers will want to extract as much money as they can out of their "legacy" 2 pilot airframes before they really push for a single pilot/no pilot plane. That means they will send tons of money to politicians to scare the public away from a single/no pilot plane until their 2 pilot cash cow airplanes are no longer worth it.

In short, no pilot alive today has to worry about it.
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Old 01-26-2018, 05:59 PM   #4
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(Please prove me wrong, by the way)
You're wrong by the way.
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Old 01-26-2018, 07:17 PM   #5
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Look around thereís a dozen threads on this subject.

GF
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Old 01-26-2018, 07:29 PM   #6
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The nerds may design it, but the beancounters will kill it. 👎
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Old 01-27-2018, 02:49 AM   #7
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I can see a system of acknowledging cpdlc-like commands as IBM Watson spaces traffic before pilotless or single pilot airplanes.
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Old 01-27-2018, 03:09 AM   #8
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GM and Ford didn't develop a driverless car; TESLA did... .
Here is how that Tesla "driverless car" thing is going. "Autopilot" was on, right into the back of a parked firetruck.

http://s.newsweek.com/sites/www.news...crash-fire.JPG

Tesla is at level 2. The best system right now, and closest to level 4, is Cadillac's (GM). So if the automotive track record is the one to measure by, Boeing is key to the future and that future is very, very far off.
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Old 01-27-2018, 04:38 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Omnivorous View Post
Everyone is familiar with the phrase "automation airmanship." I think we all know what is lingering over the horizon... somewhere--AUTOMATED airmanship.

What are the projections for when Siri takes over the Boeing (presumably opinion-based)? "Hey Siri, shoot the RNAV" in 10 years? 20? 40?

I suspect we will go single-pilot before the robots take over, doubling the size of the pilot labor force. I am curious to hear what others think about the state of the future.

(Please prove me wrong, by the way).
What's an RNAV? (sarcasm, we don't fly that on the legacy herc)
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Old 01-27-2018, 05:18 AM   #10
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When automated trains are widespread Iíll start to worry. Right now only small monorail type trains are automated. Once Amtrak, subways and commuter trains are automated than maybe we will see it in aviation. But if they arenít currently automating 18th century technology I donít think itíll happen in our lifetime.
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