kingsnake2

This. I'd also expect there to be periodic fits and starts throughout the next 5-10 years. Although there is a shortage overall, it will hit different airlines at different times. As mentioned, training can also cause a backlog. Shortage of guys to fly the line also means a shortage of pilots to train new hires.

Fixnem2Flyinem

I’ll say it... Age 70 around the corner, also recession in the near future. These two may be enough together for the airlines to continue business as usual. Or... if neither of the two happen and the 38,000 retirements by 2032 actually happen, it may be a wild ride even for the “good” regionals of today.

Varsity

Envoy isn't hiring FO's. They have a boat load of them.

Something that isn't talked about: Majors are not going to replace retirements 1:1. Fleet synergies at Delta/AA will result in thousands less pilots needed.

Excargodog

You assume the majors want age 70. I don't think they do. The guys at the top of the pay scale - those who are making max money - contribute no more to the company's bottom line than the guy who made captain just a year ago and is 7-8 steps lower on the pay scale. They learned when the retirement age went up to 65 that those last five years rather dramatically increased their average wage costs.

While the regional's may have trouble filling seats, the majors don't. They have plenty of applicants and from the financial management side it would be preferable to hire a series of well qualified old codgers who will retire promptly when they reach the top of the Pay Scale rather than spend decades there pulling max bucks. Increasing retirement age to 70 would simply increase the major's costs with no benefit to them. Recruiting and training newbie's - whose pay is far less - is much cheaper.

FollowMe

That is only one column of the balance sheet, and shortsighted at best. If the regionals can’t fill their seats it puts a significant portion, a very profitable portion, of total US lift in jeopardy. It’s all fine and well to have sufficient staffing to fly the IAD-NRT A350, but if it’s only 1/3 full because your regional lift can’t get the customer to IAD the margins start to deteriorate.

I’m not making an argument that they are for age 70, but to say they are for sure against it because those individual pilots are expensive and they can fill classes is only looking at one part of the equation.

Flightcap

This. Mainline wants their regional lift to be properly staffed just as badly as their regional lift does. If they can find a reasonable way to do it they will, even if it means slowing their own hiring.

Excargodog

Absolutely.

Which has nothing to do with their desire to fill flight decks at majors with the cheapest bodies that can do the job.

AIRLINES, both Regional and major, benefit by slowed career progression and increased employee age when their seniority (at whatever level) is established. They do NOT benefit from an increase in retirement age which allows a higher percentage of their total employees to be at the maxed out portion of the Payscale.

That's one reason they will take a 45 year old retired military guy, even if he's been out of the cockpit for eight years, over a 25 year old regional captain. They'll have the military guy for 20 years, eight of which will be at max pay versus 40 years with 28 of those at max pay. Far cheaper to hire two 45 year-olds consecutively than pay top dollar for all those years to the younger guy. And raising retirement to 70 woukd only exacerbate the financial advantage.

FollowMe

So if pilot demand = X, and pilot supply at age 65 = 0.85X, your supposition is that they would rather not go to age 70 because those individual pilots are too expensive?

Please show your math accounting for lost revenue to cancelled regional lift. Please show your math for increasing pilot labor costs by apparently intentionally allowing demand to outpace supply, giving labor more leverage in every cycle.

jumppilot

10 years ago no one would ever dream that regionals would be paying what they are paying, with associated bonuses. The next 10 years may be just as surprising.

If the regional pilot shortage gets to the level that it affects mainline operations I bet mainline management would come up with a solution. Delta is already paving the way with their A220 and the 717s.

10 years from now there may not even be regional airlines, at least in the form we know them now.

FollowMe

And one of those solutions might be say, to increase the pilot supply by raising the max age?

Of course the industry is changing over the coming decades, but I don’t see the elimination of the regional. As I wrote elsewhere, the more likely result is replacing long stage RJs with the new SNB fleets using GTFE. Even at a reduced load factor the CASM from fuel savings will offset. The RJ fleets will get redeployed to short stage routes where there isn’t enough cruise time to close the CASM gap on fuel to offset the low labor cost.