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Pilot shortage over?

Old 12-09-2018, 12:56 PM
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Default Pilot shortage over?

Is it just me... or is the shortage over? 1 year ago regional's couldn't hire pilot's fast enough. Now they are very selective and from what I see
training classes are backed up. I am a CFI in NY and my school is loaded with CFI's with more waiting to start as others move on.
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Old 12-09-2018, 01:40 PM
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Probably a seasonal pause. Jan-Feb are slow, and anyone starting class after late Sep will not be available for holiday flying, when they actually need them.
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Old 12-09-2018, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by TurboWill View Post
Is it just me... or is the shortage over? 1 year ago regional's couldn't hire pilot's fast enough. Now they are very selective and from what I see
training classes are backed up. I am a CFI in NY and my school is loaded with CFI's with more waiting to start as others move on.

probably no additional hiring till they clear the backlog....
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Old 12-09-2018, 08:58 PM
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Training classes are backed up 6months+ for many regionals. No point in spending money on recruiting so far out when many will end up going elsewhere if they can get a class date anyway.
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Old 12-09-2018, 09:45 PM
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Default I think it is multi factorial.

Yes, training classes are backed up and that is partially because of the majors increased hiring that disproportionately benefited applicants who were LCAs and trainers. That left somewhat crippled training departments that would have had some difficulty with the old attrition rates but was totally unprepared for the number of people they would have to train to replace the suddenly increased attrition, even had these new hires met the historical levels of experience that the training syllabus had been designed for.

Except most of the new hires didn't meet those historical standards. In order to fill the increased attrition, people were being hired that two or three years ago woukd not have been competitive applicants, and being pushed into training programs that required a pace that many were unable to sustain. To keep attrition down, extra training was necessary, which exacerbated the problem of lack of experienced trainers. Despite an overall shortage of sims - due to this high attrition - more sims had to be added to the training footprint, which slowed the process further. And it was aggravated again immediately after the summer flying when - again - the majors went on another hiring spree that again disproportionately affected their training personnel.

And that is a huge chunk of the current problem but for the new guy who would have probably been a quick hire (with bonus) two years ago there is another problem.

A finite but significant number of people who sort of fell out of the queu during the "lost decade" when there was relatively little flying and gave up to go into non-flying careers are coming back, fueled by the bonuses, the higher salary, and the anticipation of all the retirements at the majors. And compared to someone just starting who barely meets the ATP requirements, these old fogies with maybe 500 hours of 121 or 135 flying already behind them (and likely a type rating) in addition to that 1500 hours of mainly CFI time, are a considerably better training risk than the younger guy who (barely) meets ATP mins. And that means they are less likely to require any sort of remedial training and avoidably use up those precious FPT and SIM and instructor hours.

Now there are not a huge number of these guys, and most of those who are going to come back very likely will make the move by this summer, but I think it is quite likely that a number of regional's are going to take the opportunity to increase their hiring standards or at least preferentially hire these retreads, to the detriment of the 1000 hour RATP guy who would have been snapped up a year or two ago.
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Old 12-10-2018, 05:19 AM
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Originally Posted by TurboWill View Post
Is it just me... or is the shortage over? 1 year ago regional's couldn't hire pilot's fast enough. Now they are very selective and from what I see

training classes are backed up. I am a CFI in NY and my school is loaded with CFI's with more waiting to start as others move on.


You’re in NY so you’re probably looking at Endeavor and Republic which have backlogs, but Envoy is also there. I don’t think they have a backlog. There are other airline out there that don’t as well.

The ones the pay the most are the most sought after and therefore are the toughest to get on. It only makes sense.


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Old 12-10-2018, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by 4V14T0R View Post
You’re in NY so you’re probably looking at Endeavor and Republic which have backlogs, but Envoy is also there. I don’t think they have a backlog. There are other airline out there that don’t as well.

The ones the pay the most are the most sought after and therefore are the toughest to get on. It only makes sense.


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Yes. Republic and Envoy are my top choices. From what I've read. Envoy is Adding more planes to their fleet.
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Old 12-10-2018, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
Yes, training classes are backed up and that is partially because of the majors increased hiring that disproportionately benefited applicants who were LCAs and trainers. That left somewhat crippled training departments that would have had some difficulty with the old attrition rates but was totally unprepared for the number of people they would have to train to replace the suddenly increased attrition, even had these new hires met the historical levels of experience that the training syllabus had been designed for.

Except most of the new hires didn't meet those historical standards. In order to fill the increased attrition, people were being hired that two or three years ago woukd not have been competitive applicants, and being pushed into training programs that required a pace that many were unable to sustain. To keep attrition down, extra training was necessary, which exacerbated the problem of lack of experienced trainers. Despite an overall shortage of sims - due to this high attrition - more sims had to be added to the training footprint, which slowed the process further. And it was aggravated again immediately after the summer flying when - again - the majors went on another hiring spree that again disproportionately affected their training personnel.

And that is a huge chunk of the current problem but for the new guy who would have probably been a quick hire (with bonus) two years ago there is another problem.

A finite but significant number of people who sort of fell out of the queu during the "lost decade" when there was relatively little flying and gave up to go into non-flying careers are coming back, fueled by the bonuses, the higher salary, and the anticipation of all the retirements at the majors. And compared to someone just starting who barely meets the ATP requirements, these old fogies with maybe 500 hours of 121 or 135 flying already behind them (and likely a type rating) in addition to that 1500 hours of mainly CFI time, are a considerably better training risk than the younger guy who (barely) meets ATP mins. And that means they are less likely to require any sort of remedial training and avoidably use up those precious FPT and SIM and instructor hours.

Now there are not a huge number of these guys, and most of those who are going to come back very likely will make the move by this summer, but I think it is quite likely that a number of regional's are going to take the opportunity to increase their hiring standards or at least preferentially hire these retreads, to the detriment of the 1000 hour RATP guy who would have been snapped up a year or two ago.
Great info! thanks
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Old 12-10-2018, 07:04 PM
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If you believe the Pilot Shortage is over now, then you should get out of aviation.
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Old 12-10-2018, 07:23 PM
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Originally Posted by atpcliff View Post
If you believe the Pilot Shortage is over now, then you should get out of aviation.
This^^^^^^^^
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