For the younger guys
02-26-2020, 08:44 PM
#181
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,465
Originally Posted by rickair7777
The US UAM industry was originally shooting for a significantly lower standard than 10^ -9 standard. The european UAM industry however just committed up front to 10^ -9, not sure where the US folks stand now.
Also worth noting that 10^ -9 is the allowable chance of a serious accident per flight hour.
So it's system-cumulative, it does not mean every component needs that level of reliability, that can be mitigated with redundancy.
Multiple independent systems (ie parallel) can each have a lower reliability, with each backing the others up. This is why we have about six hydraulic pumps... hard to build a high temp, high rpm, high pressure pump with that kind of reliability.
But for remote piloting you'd need MULTIPLE comms system, and even then I'm not sure ANY known technology can achieve the needed reliability. How often do your HYD pumps "hiccup"? How often does your in-flight wifi hiccup?
Are you going to build six separate space and ground based systems? And you'd have to use different frequencies and protocols to mitigate hacking/jamming, can't just use six copies of the same system (like you can with hydraulic pumps). If it can be done technically, it most certainly cannot be done economically.
The way it will play out is anyone who seriously tries will soon be in the lobby of FAA HQ, hat in hand, looking for waivers and favors. Good luck with that: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN20J2M3
Also worth noting that 10^ -9 is the allowable chance of a serious accident per flight hour.
So it's system-cumulative, it does not mean every component needs that level of reliability, that can be mitigated with redundancy.
Multiple independent systems (ie parallel) can each have a lower reliability, with each backing the others up. This is why we have about six hydraulic pumps... hard to build a high temp, high rpm, high pressure pump with that kind of reliability.
But for remote piloting you'd need MULTIPLE comms system, and even then I'm not sure ANY known technology can achieve the needed reliability. How often do your HYD pumps "hiccup"? How often does your in-flight wifi hiccup?
Are you going to build six separate space and ground based systems? And you'd have to use different frequencies and protocols to mitigate hacking/jamming, can't just use six copies of the same system (like you can with hydraulic pumps). If it can be done technically, it most certainly cannot be done economically.
The way it will play out is anyone who seriously tries will soon be in the lobby of FAA HQ, hat in hand, looking for waivers and favors. Good luck with that: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN20J2M3
This is the big hurdle right now.
At the same time, just like you say, the redundancy is cumulative. But when it comes to technology, you can not duplicate the same tech and assume the redundancy is doubled because the systems would not be independent then.
You'd need probably 6-9 systems, all independent of each other, with not a single common line of code. NASA used to have different companies program the redundant systems, so they would not have bugs that were common with each other. This is simply impossible to do with any sort of financial return.
02-29-2020, 08:36 AM
#182
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,092
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk touts Starlink satellites and robotic fighter jets at Air Warfare Symposium
Musk also said “locally autonomous drone warfare is where the future will be.”
“The fighter jet era has passed,” he said.
After the talk, Musk expanded upon his comments in a tweet. “The competitor should be a drone fighter plane that’s remote controlled by a human, but with its maneuvers augmented by autonomy,” he wrote. “The F-35 would have no chance against it.”
The concept that Musk described sounds similar to the “Loyal Wingman” system that Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Kratos have been working on. Such a system would team up pilotless, armed drones with piloted control planes. Boeing and the Navy recently demonstrated the concept using EA-18G Growler aircraft.
another article
https://www.defensenews.com/digital-...ets-is-ending/
Lots of info out there as this is pretty new news, it hit today or yesterday.
Musk also encouraged "young airmen" to study physics and computer technology.
More on Boeing's unmanned fighter here:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/boeing...efor-australia
02-29-2020, 08:48 AM
#183
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,092
I'm not sure how many folks have investigated machine learning or even know it exists. It basically uses software to "learn" how to accomplish goals, and it adapts overtime without input from humans.
For example, you can teach a software "brain" how to fly an airplane. It takes many, many generations of software to do so as it does trial and error. But, because of the power of computing, that is a few days worth of time. It's really quite incredible. Imagine nature's evolution on a scale or millions of years per day. That is the basic behind it.
So, a natural evolution of this is putting software through millions of interactions with modeled air to air compact situations. The possibility is insane. Drone vs drone but learning as they fight (at first virtually, eventually in the real world).
For example, you can teach a software "brain" how to fly an airplane. It takes many, many generations of software to do so as it does trial and error. But, because of the power of computing, that is a few days worth of time. It's really quite incredible. Imagine nature's evolution on a scale or millions of years per day. That is the basic behind it.
So, a natural evolution of this is putting software through millions of interactions with modeled air to air compact situations. The possibility is insane. Drone vs drone but learning as they fight (at first virtually, eventually in the real world).
02-29-2020, 10:01 AM
#184
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,092
Long but good article on it:
https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/fe...n-the-cockpit/
https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/fe...n-the-cockpit/
Modern airliners do a good job of flying automatically until something unexpected happens. At that point, a pilot takes control and typically resolves the problem with no drama or fanfare. Very rarely, though, a pilot must save the day or die trying. For passenger planes to fly autonomously, software would have to be capable of handling these edge cases.One day on a test range at Fort A.P. Hill in Virginia, two years ago, NASA researchers commanded a model airplane into an unstable flight mode as though it were encountering turbulence. After less than two seconds of porpoising up and down, the plane leveled off without any human intervention.
Autopilots on airliners fly through turbulence every day. What was different about this software was that researchers did not preprogram it with the aerodynamic model of the plane that would normally define how the autopilot should change thrust or the disposition of the plane’s flight control surfaces. Instead, researchers designed the software to rapidly figure out how to make the aircraft execute the appropriate pitch, roll and yaw maneuvers.
The software outperformed a human pilot who moments earlier tried but failed to level the plane off by remote control, the test organizers said.
This software, developed under a NASA aeronautics initiative called Learn-to-Fly, is just one example of the kind of research underway in the U.S. toward the vision of fully autonomous aircraft, someday potentially including passenger jets.
Autopilots on airliners fly through turbulence every day. What was different about this software was that researchers did not preprogram it with the aerodynamic model of the plane that would normally define how the autopilot should change thrust or the disposition of the plane’s flight control surfaces. Instead, researchers designed the software to rapidly figure out how to make the aircraft execute the appropriate pitch, roll and yaw maneuvers.
The software outperformed a human pilot who moments earlier tried but failed to level the plane off by remote control, the test organizers said.
This software, developed under a NASA aeronautics initiative called Learn-to-Fly, is just one example of the kind of research underway in the U.S. toward the vision of fully autonomous aircraft, someday potentially including passenger jets.
08-27-2020, 07:48 AM
#185
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,092
New developments:
XWING is doing something similar:
Like I said earlier, big money is coming after this.
Reliable Robotics Makes Aviation History
.
More info:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...mous-Passenger
.
SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Reliable Robotics, a leader in bringing autonomous capability to airplanes, today announced that they have achieved historic firsts for global commercial aviation by completing successful test flights of remote-piloted passenger airplanes in United States airspace. In the first flight, the pilot pressed a button on a remote user interface and the unmanned four passenger Cessna 172 Skyhawk (C172) automatically taxied, took off, and landed. Most recently, the company demonstrated fully automated remote landing of an even larger aircraft, the Cessna 208 Caravan (C208), capable of carrying 14 passengers.
“Automated aircraft are going to fundamentally shift the entire airline business, and Reliable Robotics is well positioned to be a key player in this new market. The progress their team has demonstrated in a short amount of time is very impressive,” said David Neeleman, Founder of five commercial airlines including JetBlue Airways.
<snip>
Leadership:
Reliable Robotics was founded in 2017 by engineers who believe aircraft should fly themselves. The leadership team includes Co-founder and CEO Robert Rose who led flight software at SpaceX and the Autopilot program at Tesla, launching the Falcon 9 rocket, Dragon spacecraft and the first consumer automobile with fully unassisted self-driving capability. Co-founder and VP of Engineering Juerg Frefel led the team developing the compute platform for the Falcon 9 rocket and the Dragon spacecraft. Other senior members of the team have played key roles in the development of the Boeing 787, Airbus A380 and other major commercial aircraft and avionics systems.
.“Automated aircraft are going to fundamentally shift the entire airline business, and Reliable Robotics is well positioned to be a key player in this new market. The progress their team has demonstrated in a short amount of time is very impressive,” said David Neeleman, Founder of five commercial airlines including JetBlue Airways.
<snip>
Leadership:
Reliable Robotics was founded in 2017 by engineers who believe aircraft should fly themselves. The leadership team includes Co-founder and CEO Robert Rose who led flight software at SpaceX and the Autopilot program at Tesla, launching the Falcon 9 rocket, Dragon spacecraft and the first consumer automobile with fully unassisted self-driving capability. Co-founder and VP of Engineering Juerg Frefel led the team developing the compute platform for the Falcon 9 rocket and the Dragon spacecraft. Other senior members of the team have played key roles in the development of the Boeing 787, Airbus A380 and other major commercial aircraft and avionics systems.
More info:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...mous-Passenger
XWING is doing something similar:
Xwing plans short, regional flights for its autonomous cargo planes
.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/08/24/xw...-cargo-planes/
.
The path to deploying commercial aircraft that can handle all aspects of flight without a pilot is long, winding, expensive and riddled with regulatory and technical hurdles. Marc Piette, the founder of autonomous aviation startup Xwing, aims to make that path to pilotless flight shorter and more cost-effective.
Instead of building autonomous helicopters and planes from the ground up, Xwing is focused on the software stack that will enable pilotless flight of existing aircraft. Now, the company is sharing details of its go-to-market strategy several months after raising $10 million in new funding and following successful autonomous test flights in a Cessna 208B Grand Caravan. Xwing said it has completed since July more than 70 hours of engine time for ground and flight tests, and more than 40 hours of automated flight time.
.Instead of building autonomous helicopters and planes from the ground up, Xwing is focused on the software stack that will enable pilotless flight of existing aircraft. Now, the company is sharing details of its go-to-market strategy several months after raising $10 million in new funding and following successful autonomous test flights in a Cessna 208B Grand Caravan. Xwing said it has completed since July more than 70 hours of engine time for ground and flight tests, and more than 40 hours of automated flight time.
https://techcrunch.com/2020/08/24/xw...-cargo-planes/
08-27-2020, 08:09 AM
#186
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,092
For any interested in learning about programming (but have zero experience), Harvard puts their intro to computer science up for all to take.
https://cs50.harvard.edu/x/2020/
It's available for free and self paced. I started the last week in Match when this stuff hit the fan and was done by mid May. It was interesting and tough, and has given me the ability to branch out into learning about embedded systems with Arduino boards which are coded in simplistic C++ (most autonomous vehicle programming is C++).
MIT offers the same type of course but quite frankly, except for using C (ha!), the Harvard one is miles ahead.
https://www.edx.org/course/introduct...-programming-7
Another good place to start is FreeCodeCamp.org. It looks hokey but has excellent free resources and a great program tailored to learn front end development. The thing is this is a 12-18 month process to get your first foot in the door as a jr front end developer. I would personally avoid bootcamps except for this one:
https://launchschool.com/
"Learning to Code' isn't so much learning a specific language to start but how to think like a programmer. If you like doing puzzles you'll like programming, as it's about solving problems. No matter the language, a loop is loop!
https://cs50.harvard.edu/x/2020/
It's available for free and self paced. I started the last week in Match when this stuff hit the fan and was done by mid May. It was interesting and tough, and has given me the ability to branch out into learning about embedded systems with Arduino boards which are coded in simplistic C++ (most autonomous vehicle programming is C++).
MIT offers the same type of course but quite frankly, except for using C (ha!), the Harvard one is miles ahead.
https://www.edx.org/course/introduct...-programming-7
Another good place to start is FreeCodeCamp.org. It looks hokey but has excellent free resources and a great program tailored to learn front end development. The thing is this is a 12-18 month process to get your first foot in the door as a jr front end developer. I would personally avoid bootcamps except for this one:
https://launchschool.com/
"Learning to Code' isn't so much learning a specific language to start but how to think like a programmer. If you like doing puzzles you'll like programming, as it's about solving problems. No matter the language, a loop is loop!
08-27-2020, 04:18 PM
#187
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2017
Position: Retired NJA & AA
Posts: 1,916
Another reason we won't see autonomous jets
Tesla on autopilot takes out 2 LEO Vehicles and almost runs over Deputy while Tesla driver is watching movie on his phone:
https://www.wral.com/tesla-on-autopi...ovie/19255038/
https://www.wral.com/tesla-on-autopi...ovie/19255038/
08-27-2020, 07:34 PM
#188
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,092
Originally Posted by AirBear
Tesla on autopilot takes out 2 LEO Vehicles and almost runs over Deputy while Tesla driver is watching movie on his phone:
https://www.wral.com/tesla-on-autopi...ovie/19255038/
https://www.wral.com/tesla-on-autopi...ovie/19255038/
08-30-2020, 07:32 AM
#189
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,937
Originally Posted by AirBear
Tesla on autopilot takes out 2 LEO Vehicles and almost runs over Deputy while Tesla driver is watching movie on his phone:
https://www.wral.com/tesla-on-autopi...ovie/19255038/
https://www.wral.com/tesla-on-autopi...ovie/19255038/
08-30-2020, 07:46 AM
#190
China Visa Applicant
Joined APC: Oct 2006
Position: Midfield downwind
Posts: 1,919
Originally Posted by TransWorld
Pilots earn their keep when things are not going smooth and predictable.
Until AI can do that, the "big money" is going to continue developing a capability that essentially already exists.
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