88,300 truck drivers lost their jobs in April
05-08-2020, 10:53 PM
#1
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88,300 truck drivers lost their jobs in April
05-13-2020, 08:08 AM
#4
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Originally Posted by mike734
Now imagine a world where fully automated long haul trucking becomes a thing. Hundreds of thousands of trucker put out of work. It's going to get ugly. Pitchforks are coming.
Only way is for specific highways and roads to be modified to a very high standard of consistency for autonomous vehicles, and that would almost certainly have to mean no human drivers on those roads. So you could build some parallel interstates, but then a human would have to take over at the off-ramp destination. But that probably would kill the cost-benefit of autonomy, and besides we actually already have such a system: railroads. Don't really need a separate railroad for autonomous semis.
05-13-2020, 01:23 PM
#5
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
The automated vehicle advocates have already realized it's not happening, AI cannot handle the real world in all cases, and any accidents will be blamed solely on the deep-pocket Mfgs and operators. Look at the national media attention garnered by a tiny handful of autonomy accidents.
Only way is for specific highways and roads to be modified to a very high standard of consistency for autonomous vehicles, and that would almost certainly have to mean no human drivers on those roads. So you could build some parallel interstates, but then a human would have to take over at the off-ramp destination. But that probably would kill the cost-benefit of autonomy, and besides we actually already have such a system: railroads. Don't really need a separate railroad for autonomous semis.
Only way is for specific highways and roads to be modified to a very high standard of consistency for autonomous vehicles, and that would almost certainly have to mean no human drivers on those roads. So you could build some parallel interstates, but then a human would have to take over at the off-ramp destination. But that probably would kill the cost-benefit of autonomy, and besides we actually already have such a system: railroads. Don't really need a separate railroad for autonomous semis.
05-14-2020, 07:22 AM
#6
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Originally Posted by SonicFlyer
I must disagree with you. Autonomous vehicles don't have to be perfect, they just have to be better than human drivers (which really isn't that hard to do).
I know people who work in AI in the bay, and I have relevant education, and have kept abreast of developments. They're at an all-stop when it comes to full-automation operating in an environment which is not 100% predictable and controllable.
As it turns out the civil justice system is fueled by emotion, not logic.
If a human driver screws up, the court awards the limit of his insurance, maybe takes some other assets, maybe takes his house, maybe not. The plaintiff sued for $150M and got $500K. The court will not/can not blame other parties such as the mfg or the guy who did the last brake job, unless there is reasonably clear evidence of a mechanical failure.
With an autonomous vehicle, the fault is going to be nearly 100% with the deep pockets: mfg, and operator in the case of uber, cab company, delivery service, etc. That $500K accident just became a $150M accident. The civil judicial system follows the money just like rain water follows the terrain downhill. If you change the terrain, it's obvious how the money will flow.
At this point no insurers will touch it, and no mfg can self-insure. The industry doesn't know how to get to a point where they can even CALCULATE the liability risk, much less build it into their economic model. Kind of like a cessna 172 costs about $100K to build but sells for $400K... a huge chunk of that is liability reserve to protect the mfg from the inevitable lawsuits.
I suspect autonomous vehicles will be turned loose in the wild first in places like China, where the government can just dictate the rules for the liability issue.
Also, for a laymen, that last leap in autonomous reliability is technically waaaaay harder than you can even begin to imagine. Tesla reached the practical limit, and tries to circumvent the liability by telling their customers that when using "autopilot" they need to keep their hands on the wheel and eyes on the road (wink, wink)... that disclaimer keeps the driver in the liability driver's seat. At least for now, they're actually getting regulatory push-back on their marketing of auto-pilot and I'm sure legal challenges from the various accidents are in the pipeline.
05-15-2020, 11:15 PM
#8
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Originally Posted by SonicFlyer
Fascinating insight. It makes perfect sense actually.
https://www.pbs.org/video/look-whos-driving-65sadz/
05-25-2020, 01:10 PM
#9
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
That's entirely logical, but there are much larger societal roadblocks...
I know people who work in AI in the bay, and I have relevant education, and have kept abreast of developments. They're at an all-stop when it comes to full-automation operating in an environment which is not 100% predictable and controllable.
As it turns out the civil justice system is fueled by emotion, not logic.
If a human driver screws up, the court awards the limit of his insurance, maybe takes some other assets, maybe takes his house, maybe not. The plaintiff sued for $150M and got $500K. The court will not/can not blame other parties such as the mfg or the guy who did the last brake job, unless there is reasonably clear evidence of a mechanical failure.
With an autonomous vehicle, the fault is going to be nearly 100% with the deep pockets: mfg, and operator in the case of uber, cab company, delivery service, etc. That $500K accident just became a $150M accident. The civil judicial system follows the money just like rain water follows the terrain downhill. If you change the terrain, it's obvious how the money will flow.
At this point no insurers will touch it, and no mfg can self-insure. The industry doesn't know how to get to a point where they can even CALCULATE the liability risk, much less build it into their economic model. Kind of like a cessna 172 costs about $100K to build but sells for $400K... a huge chunk of that is liability reserve to protect the mfg from the inevitable lawsuits.
I suspect autonomous vehicles will be turned loose in the wild first in places like China, where the government can just dictate the rules for the liability issue.
Also, for a laymen, that last leap in autonomous reliability is technically waaaaay harder than you can even begin to imagine. Tesla reached the practical limit, and tries to circumvent the liability by telling their customers that when using "autopilot" they need to keep their hands on the wheel and eyes on the road (wink, wink)... that disclaimer keeps the driver in the liability driver's seat. At least for now, they're actually getting regulatory push-back on their marketing of auto-pilot and I'm sure legal challenges from the various accidents are in the pipeline.
I know people who work in AI in the bay, and I have relevant education, and have kept abreast of developments. They're at an all-stop when it comes to full-automation operating in an environment which is not 100% predictable and controllable.
As it turns out the civil justice system is fueled by emotion, not logic.
If a human driver screws up, the court awards the limit of his insurance, maybe takes some other assets, maybe takes his house, maybe not. The plaintiff sued for $150M and got $500K. The court will not/can not blame other parties such as the mfg or the guy who did the last brake job, unless there is reasonably clear evidence of a mechanical failure.
With an autonomous vehicle, the fault is going to be nearly 100% with the deep pockets: mfg, and operator in the case of uber, cab company, delivery service, etc. That $500K accident just became a $150M accident. The civil judicial system follows the money just like rain water follows the terrain downhill. If you change the terrain, it's obvious how the money will flow.
At this point no insurers will touch it, and no mfg can self-insure. The industry doesn't know how to get to a point where they can even CALCULATE the liability risk, much less build it into their economic model. Kind of like a cessna 172 costs about $100K to build but sells for $400K... a huge chunk of that is liability reserve to protect the mfg from the inevitable lawsuits.
I suspect autonomous vehicles will be turned loose in the wild first in places like China, where the government can just dictate the rules for the liability issue.
Also, for a laymen, that last leap in autonomous reliability is technically waaaaay harder than you can even begin to imagine. Tesla reached the practical limit, and tries to circumvent the liability by telling their customers that when using "autopilot" they need to keep their hands on the wheel and eyes on the road (wink, wink)... that disclaimer keeps the driver in the liability driver's seat. At least for now, they're actually getting regulatory push-back on their marketing of auto-pilot and I'm sure legal challenges from the various accidents are in the pipeline.
05-25-2020, 05:13 PM
#10
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Originally Posted by Tom Bradys Cat
And throw in the trolleycar problem. That needs to be built into the algorithims. What will programmers write? Truck if your brakes fail and you have a choice of wiping out an old couple in front of you or a young kid on the side walk which one will you choose.
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