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Ukraine conflict

Old 12-15-2022, 05:15 AM
  #21  
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Ukrainian mod stated that Russia has pulled heavy weaponry that they saved from the retreat across the river, from the rear areas of Luhansk back to the Luhansk Donetsk oblast borders. Giving the option for 2 axis of counter attacks they expect in as early as January/February 2023. However they feel that Russian forces will not have the cohesion and experience to make meaningful gains. Maybe itís all for theater back home?

This coupled with the fact that Putin cancelled his state of the union for the first time since 1994, has canceled every live press conference with Russian citizens, and increasingly resorts to canned footage for the Russian information space, maybe he is going into bunker mentality? Health not good? Regardless of the specific reasons, a bunker mentality becomes incredibly dangerous with tac nukes on the field.

I am increasingly worried that Putin may resort to drastic measures to control the AO. Personally I think he will use them unless he is stopped by his subordinates. Scary
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Old 12-15-2022, 05:55 AM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped View Post
Why do you have to be insulting? Why canít you just be chill? I made an observation and you provided a reason. Saying ďyou suck at thisĒ does nothing. Do you like to poo poo every thread? What is so personal about this thread to you?

Iím curious to hear your answers. If you canít play nice and keep personal insults out of it, I implore you to not be here. We are just discussing interesting points. Please be chill
What he said. Be nice.
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Old 12-15-2022, 06:02 AM
  #23  
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped View Post
This coupled with the fact that Putin cancelled his state of the union for the first time since 1994, has canceled every live press conference with Russian citizens, and increasingly resorts to canned footage for the Russian information space, maybe he is going into bunker mentality? Health not good? Regardless of the specific reasons, a bunker mentality becomes incredibly dangerous with tac nukes on the field.
Yeah that's concerning.

Originally Posted by Hubcapped View Post
I am increasingly worried that Putin may resort to drastic measures to control the AO. Personally I think he will use them unless he is stopped by his subordinates. Scary
Between the oligarchs, mil leadership, and civilian pols and bureaucrats I'm somewhat confident that nukes won't be used... NONE of those people want to go out in a blaze of glory over Vlad's failed ambitions in a two-bit east-block country. None of them want to see RU totally isolated and ostracized; you think it's bad now, we'd probably start sinking merchant ships operating to/from RU. None of the mil leaders want to swing from a gallows at Nuremberg. Only in DPRK or maybe Iran are the military so controlled and brainwashed that they'd go along offensive first use of nuclear weapons. People in RU are not really that disconnected from the rest of the world.

I hope.
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Old 12-15-2022, 06:46 AM
  #24  
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I guess my fear stems from not understanding their nuke protocols. Iím fairly well versed in ours, it how many steps exist between him and the red button? Scary
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Old 12-15-2022, 07:17 AM
  #25  
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped View Post
I guess my fear stems from not understanding their nuke protocols. I’m fairly well versed in ours, it how many steps exist between him and the red button? Scary
There are other issues as well. What is really the state of the Russian military? How easy would it be to subvert the safeguards. I recall an incident in the US where a B-52 crew inadvertently flew six nukes from Minot to Barkesdale after the MMS personnel inadvertently selected the wrong missiles (ie., ones with live warheads) and the security let them out of the NWSA without checking and the B-52 crew only checked the missiles on the OTHER wing of the aircraft breaking I don’t know how many of our own protocols as well as one or more international treaties and leaving six nukes unguarded for the better part of a day. Yeah, a number of high ranking careers came to an abrupt halt, but this was a totally unforced error in peacetime in the US. Nobody was trying to hurt anybody - there was just a cascade of f$&k ups.

It begs the question though: What is the current state of the Russian nuclear forces? Are they really competent? Even if some zealot(s) were trying to actively subvert the protocols?

And while Putin may be reviled in the West he is still quite popular at home. If he gave the go order I’m not at all sure that anyone below him would intercede.
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Old 12-15-2022, 07:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped View Post
I guess my fear stems from not understanding their nuke protocols. Iím fairly well versed in ours, it how many steps exist between him and the red button? Scary
Theirs are fairly similar, inherited from the USSR. I doubt even Vlad would have the clout to streamline that much. Nor would he have a reason to open that can of worms, and create concern and opposition amongst the elites. They are all pretty rational, and none of them have any enthusiasm for going out in a blaze of thermonuclear glory, a la Major Kong.
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Old 12-15-2022, 07:52 AM
  #27  
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Interesting perspectives from “man on the street” interviews in Russia. (I don’t happen to agree with them.) Putin is always right. Putin is not a Nazi. The President of Ukraine is a Nazi. The US President Biden is a Nazi. Winston Churchill hated Jews. Russia did not invade Ukraine. Russia has not killed any Ukrainian citizens, not one. Ukraine has attacked Russia, with no provocation. All Russia wants is its rightful territory back, all of Ukraine. Things were better under the USSR, than today, under Russia. Europeans and Americans are much poorer than Russians. They can’t get food, clothing, cars. Their homes have no heat. We don’t need freedom or capitalism. We need more socialism, more communism. How do I know these things? I have heard these things reported on television. “What if you are being lied to, on television?” *Shrugs Shoulders and Walks Away*.

It is up to you whether to believe them or not. Are they being gaslighted or not? Are they saying things to avoid getting in trouble with the Russian governement or not?
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Old 12-15-2022, 08:20 AM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
And while Putin may be reviled in the West he is still quite popular at home. If he gave the go order Iím not at all sure that anyone below him would intercede.
Rank and file, the people most likely to be narrow-minded low-level apparatchiks, would presumably follow orders... our system is designed (and tested) that way as well. Any intervention would happen near the top.

I'm reasonably confident that the people in a position to intervene have already discussed it among themselves. And may have already intervened without our knowledge.
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Old 12-15-2022, 08:27 AM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
There are other issues as well. What is really the state of the Russian military? How easy would it be to subvert the safeguards. I recall an incident in the US where a B-52 crew inadvertently flew six nukes from Minot to Barkesdale after the MMS personnel inadvertently selected the wrong missiles (ie., ones with live warheads) and the security let them out of the NWSA without checking and the B-52 crew only checked the missiles on the OTHER wing of the aircraft breaking I donít know how many of our own protocols as well as one or more international treaties and leaving six nukes unguarded for the better part of a day. Yeah, a number of high ranking careers came to an abrupt halt, but this was a totally unforced error in peacetime in the US. Nobody was trying to hurt anybody - there was just a cascade of f$&k ups.

It begs the question though: What is the current state of the Russian nuclear forces? Are they really competent? Even if some zealot(s) were trying to actively subvert the protocols?

And while Putin may be reviled in the West he is still quite popular at home. If he gave the go order Iím not at all sure that anyone below him would intercede.
I agree with cargo on the last statement. Would the military go against specific orders? I guess the question would be, how could the oligarchs (which Rick air is spot on imho) get their thumb between the hammer and action?(im obviously not a gun guy, give me a viper and I can drop bombs on anything). Have they put this mechanism in place? Holee fuk I hope sooo
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Old 12-15-2022, 09:01 AM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped View Post
I agree with cargo on the last statement. Would the military go against specific orders? I guess the question would be, how could the oligarchs (which Rick air is spot on imho) get their thumb between the hammer and action?(im obviously not a gun guy, give me a viper and I can drop bombs on anything). Have they put this mechanism in place? Holee fuk I hope sooo
Their system is not nearly as cut and dried as ours regarding separation of mil, political, and other actors. It is fundamentally run by consensus of the top dogs, since democratic institutions have largely failed. Putin, and his closest henchmen, cannot do it all by themselves, they rely on a patronage system where hundreds of key people in society (including gov, mil, intel, and business/economic spheres) all interact dynamically and cross-pollinate with numerous complexities and under-currents. In other words, it's a hot mess.

Putin can take out a few dissenters here and there, but he can't go against the collective will for long because, unlike say DPRK, the legal system does NOT grant him absolute control over everything... he has to patronize and influence those key players who do have direct control over the various aspects of the nations functioning. The senior mil leaders are not like ours, not bound much by mil hierarchy but rather free to swim in the deep end of society as they see fit. In other words the mil leaders are talking to all of the other key people, and are not mindless, reliable functionaries of the president. Our mil leadership is actually on a much tighter leash than theirs.

Some of the mil is dangerously hardline... it's bad that they have as much autonomy and influence as they do. Others are very practical and even moderate by RU standards, and they have some autonomy too.

So most generals who might be considering how to react to an order to employ tac nukes will be influenced by, and even collaborate with, other members of the oligarchy... most of whom just want to enjoy wealth, privilege, and power. They're already upset that they're PNG in Londongrad and their yachts have been seized... they certainly don't want to live out their lives in a RU that's paying the inevitable penalty for nuclear employment. To say nothing of concerns about nuclear escalation from the tactical level.

RU does not function like a stereotypical Bond Villain (DPRK does however).
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