Lighteningspeed

Me neither because we don't need no stinking bus.

aerospacepilot

I certainly have. I decided that I do not want to be a career airline pilot. I held the view that the price of oil was only going to go up and up and up over 2 years ago (when oil was $60/barrel). As a result, I decided to get all 250 hours for my commercial as fast as possible (when avgas was still $3-$4 a gallon). Every time I had some spare time, I went flying. I did not wait until avgas hit $7-$8 a gallon to build flight time. That is one example of me putting my money where my mouth is.

I decided if I want to fly for a living, it will be as a test pilot or as a corporate or fractional pilot. I think the airlines are going to shrink until only the people who can afford to fly will be able to fly. That means more aircraft cuts (yes, more than the 400 or so aircraft that have already been cut this year). This will be good for airlines over the long term (along with merging and brand consolidation), but I think it will sting quite a bit over the next few years. Oil prices are not going to go down, therefore I am avoiding the airlines. They have the most to lose.

Despite all this, there is no shortage of new pilots dropping $70,000 of borrowed money to go to an academy like ATP when they could get the same flight training for $40,000 at their local FBO. When they are done, they have these massive $70,000 loans with close to $1,000 a month payments. That makes these pilots desperate. There is no shortage of pilots going to fly for airlines like GoJet, Skybus, and even Mesa is finding hundreds of new pilots. I just don't want to be a part of this.

I am going to stay away from the airlines. My aviation career is most likely going to end up as a test pilot or a corporate/fractional pilot. I know the average American cannot afford a transcon flight on an airliner with oil over $200/barrel, so I am not going to bet my career on it. We are not that far away. And if flying for a living does not work out, I will have an Aerospace Engineering degree that I can use.


Just because someone has been a pilot for longer (Lighteningspeed) does not mean they have a better understanding of what is going to happen to the price of oil. I believe the price of oil is only going to go up and up and up. So far my predictions have been right (feel free to look up my previous posts). If oil prices drop, it will only be temporary (so hedge, hedge, hedge). I don't think it will ever dip below triple digits. If you want to make a prediction of the price of oil a year from now, I will be happy to make one myself and we can see who is closer.

CE750

Good for you if that's your goal.. to be a test pilot, make sure to get at least a masters degree in Physics, Aerospace Engineering or something heavy science like that.. try to fly military and fighters and attend test pilot school. Seems like an easy enough goal! Best of luck my friend (sincerely).

TheQuan

So I think you're saying you're not going to be an airline pilot?

shaggieshapiro

Has anybody entertained the thought that the rise in oil prices can be due to terrorists buying all the oil to put the U.S. economy in utter termoil, so it can be easy for them to strike us again?

Delta1054

Saudi Arabia has never had any terrorist affiliations

Nicless

Exactly right.Sadly, a global drop of 30 percent in oil demand will also set off a depression of huge proportions and totally collapse the US-Petro dollar. Even the cure is bad news.

Nicless

Unless you call Chindia and the developing world terrorists, no. Two billion plus people want the same lifestyle you have for themselves and the family. That means cars, tv's, refrigerators and food from the four corners of the globe.....mmmmm, alfonso mangos..

You would probably then have to call anyone who drives an SUV a terrorist sympathizer and anyone who leaves the lights on an enemy combatant.

Wildflyin

A new Al Gore Campaign???

JetPiedmont

Agreed. With the dot com and real estate Bubbles, the supply of IPO's and properties was increasing as prices were increasing. With oil, the prices are increasing, but the supply is decreasing. That's the difference between a bubble and a bull market. The bull in oil is supported by decreasing supply.