Boogie Nights

Oil is going to drop, lets hope we all all here to see it!

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/06/news...ion=2008060610

cfii2007

If oil is anything like gold, the price always seems to go up during periods of inflation.

DYNASTY HVY

Well it did not drop soon enough
Going to have a combination of pax and car flights streamlined "cancelled" during the next several months over here.
Looks like the misery is spreading ever so slowly .

WhizWheel

Again comparing oil to the dot com/housing bubble is comparing apples to oranges. Its a different dynamic and will take much stronger forces to tank it.

DYNASTY HVY

Exactly !Much larger dynamic .

Runner

The author is the same guy that predicted the collapse of the tech bubble in early 2000...he might know what he's talking about.

CE750

Having had the good fortune of timing the stock market and real estate market well, I have to say I agree.

In both of the former two market booms, there was a lot of initial fundamental growth and capital creation that had underlying fundamentals.. soon however, the psychological tide of greed and rapid reward investment took hold and this is what led to both of the aforementioned bubbles, and in both cases, the media started to slowly at first and then more so later report on the "Exhuberence" and eventual down turn of those markets.. with in a short period, that indeed happened.

We're now in the media reporting of the inevitable down turn phase... hopefully by the period after this election, we'll be talking "happy days" again... how long it will take to recover this industry is another story.. you can't just suddenly undo the kind of fleet size reductions talked about now.

bryris

Just go to work until they tell you not too. With all this speculation, the most stable piece of information is that.

Just like the last line in the fourth Harry Potter book, "What will come, will come, and we'll just have to face it when it does".

FliFast

Question is, what is going to drop to, and from what lofty perch will it start this descent.

For example, dropping to $130 bbl, from $152 bbl, may not be the "break" we need in the short term.

I'm still bullish on the oil market at least until the end of the year.

FF

aerospacepilot

I disagree. I think the price of oil is only going to go up and up and up over the long term. The only way to lower the price long term is to significantly cut usage. Peak oil has already happened. Until world demand drops by some significant amount (30% or so), you will not see a significant drop in oil prices.