rickair7777

This is a myth perpetuated by certain business interest who peddle training and other services to entry-level pilots. We may again see a shortage of entry-level regional pilots willing to work for $20K, but I doubt we will see a large shortage at the majors...especially if oil goes up and stays there. A few majors (Airways East and CAL) do have a lot of old guys though.

The only glimmer of good news career-wise is that the lending companies have finally realized the fallacy of loaning a 19 yo $100K+ so he can get a job paying $20K. Going forward, we may see fewer low-time children and more self-funded adults entering the business.

Actually it would be interesting to get hold of the demographics of all the US major airlines and generate a year-by-year retirement count.

dojetdriver

Tough question to give a good answer too. Age 65 changed a lot of the retirement numbers. And it's really just too difficult to gauge what will happen. If airlines continue to park aircraft, it could remain "level" so to speak.

And this could cause a serious thread drift there, but OTHER variables that could affect the situation. When, or more if, there is another hiring wave, there are plenty of guys who have been slugging it out in the regionals (and various other civilian backgrounds) since 9/11 waiting for that spot at a major. Almost ALL these guys are going to be pretty qualified. Meaning, LOTS of PIC, multiple type ratings, LCA experience, etc.

Depending on what happens in the short term, you will ALSO have a high number of military pilots (also VERY qualified) hitting the market. Before anybody analyzes this comment, please think twice. I don't want to see this thread get closed.

Now, of course we ALL know people that got hired at (insert legacy here) with low time and not much real experience to speak of, and haven't really been in this industry very long. Yep, it happens. But those guys are usually the minority of a new hire class.

kalyx522

How did I forget to mention this on my list. This is a big downside for me too, and I feel it always in the back of my mind - that threat of being fired, getting certificate action and/or ending my career. especially since I work for a non-union regional and have zero legal protection. I don't think it's as simple as, "just dont screw up." even the really good pilots make mistakes sometimes (and I'm not even that good.)

proskuneho

Most of my management experience was with a national company that peddles training and other services to entry-level pilots. Perhaps each of us school directors were misled by our CEO and President at national meetings into baiting flight training prospects? I'm honestly not trying to argue, I'm just curious to know why you feel that the reports of a tidal wave of Vietnam vet era retirements is bogus?

If it is a bogus rumor meant to spike training, then I am a sucker who left a decent paying management job (with even better potential) to pursue a low paying job with the hopes that I might be able to recover my losses in a reasonable time frame.

kalyx522

It may not necessarily be bogus.. but even if there were a "tidal wave" of retirements coming up, there is, in fact, a over-supply of pilots at the regional level to cover that. And that is the problem, like dojetdriver pointed out... there are thousands of regional guys sitting around right now who are or soon will be qualified and competitive for the majors. A lot more regional guys than there are spots available at the majors, even with the retirements.

Boomer

That's another one I missed on my worst-case scenario back in 1999:

• September 11th
• Pilot contracts thrown out in Federal Bankruptcy Court
• Pensions eliminated
• Fuel at $140/bbl
• Age 65

Go for it based on your best-case scenario, but only if you can survive your worst-case scenario times 20% worser than you can imagine.

rickair7777

From the perspective of a senior military guy who is well-connected with what is going on at the highest levels, this statement is completely incorrect.

The DoD plans on at least a 50-year horizon, and there are PLENTY of manned aircraft, some not even in production, in the long-term plan.

A gradual shift to more UAV's will largely supplement, not replace, manned aircraft. It will take an extensive trial period with UAV's before they are fully capable and trusted.

There will be fewer manned aircraft, but they are designed to be FAR more reliable...today, the airplane needs more downtime than the pilot, so you only need one crew per tactical airplane. In the future, the airplane will operate around the clock requiring multiple pilots in shifts.

Anyone who is old enough to read this will not be affected hordes of displaced military pilots searching for civilian jobs. Even when it happens it will be gradual, and many displaced military pilots will stay in for retirement anyway.

The biggest displacement in sight is the ANG F-16 squadrons...most of those pilots are part-time anyway and already have another job.

de727ups

Whether you consider yourself a "sucker" not, is your business.

The outlook of aviation careers is always a moving target. It cycles up and down with the economy. Other factors play a part. 9/11 and age 65. I think we are seeing a perfect storm of badness right now. But any academy which recruits people with ads that specify "Vietnam vet era retirements" is clearly grasping at straws to make a buck. It's sad that people buy off on that.

Would you care to name the academy you worked for?

rickair7777

This rumor has been a staple since the day the vietnam war ended...I was told the same thing when I was in your shoes more than a decade ago. So far, I think more folks have been furloughed than hired.

But like I said, it would be interesting to see what the demographics look like today, after taking into account age 65.

Boomer

There were 6 military pilots in my regional new-hire class. Five went back on duty (voluntarily) within the first year. Regional pay was that bad, or the military pay was that good. I'll admit it may be a different story at the majors.