Go Back  Airline Pilot Central Forums > Pilot Lounge > Hangar Talk
Obligatory Pilot Shortage Article >

Obligatory Pilot Shortage Article

Notices
Hangar Talk For non-aviation-related discussion and aviation threads that don't belong elsewhere

Obligatory Pilot Shortage Article

Old 02-16-2011, 01:19 PM
  #81  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Elliot's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: "Prof" button manipulator
Posts: 1,685
Default

Originally Posted by Elvis90 View Post
Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

There's an FAA roadmap for UAS systems posted here; nothing too impressive from what I see...am I missing something?

http://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives...FACT_Sheet.pdf

The FAA is more concerned right now with UAS's simply occupying the same space as manned passenger aircraft.
Elvis,

Good post. I'll tell you what the FAA is most worried about. When I toured the General Atomics plant outside of San Diego, the project with the most effort, was trying to get the FAA to understand "sense and avoid" was just as safe, if not safer than "see and avoid" for aircraft avoidance in the congested airspace we work in today.

For obvious reasons, nobody wants to be aboard that one manned asset and see an autonomous or remotely operated vehicle closing in on their 3 to 9.

Once governing agencies retire a few "old heads". (Oops, did I say that on a public forum?) I think we can get past the antiquated thought processes of always needing a "windscreen" to look out of so that we can detect oncoming threats. (i.e. synthetic vision falls into this category)

GJ
Elliot is offline  
Old 02-16-2011, 01:24 PM
  #82  
On Reserve
 
Elvis90's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Position: MSP7ERB
Posts: 1,886
Default

Originally Posted by Gearjerk View Post
I would put money in Vegas that they're working on UAS's being air refueled as we speak.

GJ

Or quite possibly even unmanned tankers flying continuous orbits, not needing to worry about crew duty days.
So do pilots fly these UAS's from ground stations or are they autonomous? Artificial intelligence???

I remain a skeptic...keep us posted on the technological advances...it's interesting.

Unmanned tankers? How about a simple manned replacement for the KC-135? After 4 iterations we still don't have one...ridiculous.
Elvis90 is offline  
Old 02-16-2011, 01:35 PM
  #83  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Elliot's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: "Prof" button manipulator
Posts: 1,685
Default

Elvis,

Good questions/comments/thoughts,

Originally Posted by Elvis90 View Post
So do pilots fly these UAS's from ground stations or are they autonomous? Artificial intelligence???

Pilots flying UAS's from Ground Control Stations (GCS's) until they reach a "pre-contact" position. Then, "operators" on board the refueling aircraft bringing them from "pre-contact to contact and back again" until they hand control to GCS's again.

This is the most recent. I assume they'll have autopilot functions allowing for UAS refueling ops in the future, but if a person thinks about the simplicity of algorithms to bring an aircraft to the "same position" relative to another aircraft each time, it's plausible that our input (meat servo) can be subtracted from the scenario.


I remain a skeptic...keep us posted on the technological advances...it's interesting.

It does seem far fetched, but I've seen some of the testing first hand. There are things out there that make me wish I'd had a more important "Minor" in college.

Unmanned tankers? How about a simple manned replacement for the KC-135? After 4 iterations we still don't have one...ridiculous.

Coindidence?

Last edited by Elliot; 02-16-2011 at 05:01 PM.
Elliot is offline  
Old 02-16-2011, 03:46 PM
  #84  
Gets Weekends Off
 
CANAM's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Oct 2008
Position: 1986 LeBaron Convertable
Posts: 439
Default

There will never be a shortage for well paying jobs!

As people get older and retire, every industry "should" begin to feel a shortage. What confuses me, is that if people are dying off as they get older, wouldn't that mean less passengers flying and therefore less aircraft flying?
CANAM is offline  
Old 02-16-2011, 04:08 PM
  #85  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Jack Bauer's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,357
Default

Originally Posted by forgot to bid View Post
Rick, pretty lame. Sorry if it was too much for you to handle. Good luck, lay off the caps lock and don't let the door hit you on the way out.
forgot to bid,

This guy is more interested in being right than he is in having a conversation where everybody inputs what they know. You stay pretty informed (read AWAST). I tend to lean toward what you are saying. Add automation but keep one guy in the cockpit as the backup. Not what I want but from all I have read that will be the next step.
Jack Bauer is offline  
Old 02-16-2011, 05:00 PM
  #86  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Elliot's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: "Prof" button manipulator
Posts: 1,685
Default

Originally Posted by CANAM View Post
There will never be a shortage for well paying jobs!

As people get older and retire, every industry "should" begin to feel a shortage. What confuses me, is that if people are dying off as they get older, wouldn't that mean less passengers flying and therefore less aircraft flying?
CANAM,

Good point, but according to the 2010 census numbers vs. 2000 census numbers, the U.S. population alone grew by 29,411,673 people. That's 29 million more people in the U.S. alone, not accounting for the world population growth.

According to some sources, the world population has experienced continuous growth since the end of the Black Death around the year 1400. Current projections show an increase in population at a steady rate with the world population expected to reach between 7.5 to 10.5 billion people by the year 2050. The world population is presently estimated at around 6.9 billion people.

Hope that answers your concerns of "too many people keeling over", and possibly being out of a flying job anytime soon.

GJ
Elliot is offline  
Old 02-16-2011, 05:04 PM
  #87  
veut gagner à la loterie
Thread Starter
 
forgot to bid's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: Light Chop
Posts: 23,286
Default

Originally Posted by CANAM View Post
There will never be a shortage for well paying jobs!

As people get older and retire, every industry "should" begin to feel a shortage. What confuses me, is that if people are dying off as they get older, wouldn't that mean less passengers flying and therefore less aircraft flying?
Catch 22 eh?

Originally Posted by Jack Bauer View Post
forgot to bid,

This guy is more interested in being right than he is in having a conversation where everybody inputs what they know. You stay pretty informed (read AWAST). I tend to lean toward what you are saying. Add automation but keep one guy in the cockpit as the backup. Not what I want but from all I have read that will be the next step.
It's not what I want. I love that a 777 requires 4 pilots most of the time. At DAL alone you could probably cut 500 people off the ER if this technology landed in the planes overnight. None of this seems to be forecast to occur in less than 10 years but honestly, some upgrades to downlink capabilities and satellite communication and I could see someone pushing for ULH flights with just 2 pilots. That could be the wedge to open to single pilot ops.

If there is a pilot shortage I fear the money won't go as some hope to increasing salaries to attract better pilots but to outsourcing a pilot to computers.

Either way, the technology sure seems headed that way and with Embraer making it public and FedEx hinting at it, it seems plausible. Go back 5 years and there wasn't an iphone, now look. Sure Gearjerk and those in his field have seen whats coming down the pipe on the DOD side of things and applying that to civilian markets doesn't seem far fetched. imho.
forgot to bid is offline  
Old 02-16-2011, 05:16 PM
  #88  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Elliot's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: "Prof" button manipulator
Posts: 1,685
Default

Originally Posted by forgot to bid View Post
None of this seems to be forecast to occur in less than 10 years but honestly, some upgrades to downlink capabilities and satellite communication and I could see someone pushing for ULH flights with just 2 pilots. That could be the wedge to open to single pilot ops.

Either way, the technology sure seems headed that way and with Embraer making it public and FedEx hinting at it, it seems plausible. Go back 5 years and there wasn't an iphone, now look. Sure Gearjerk and those in his field have seen whats coming down the pipe on the DOD side of things and applying that to civilian markets doesn't seem far fetched. imho.
When this becomes a reality at the end of a decade, at the most, plus five years, just remember..........

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST FOLKS!!

GJ


Elliot is offline  
Old 02-17-2011, 05:09 AM
  #89  
Gets Weekends Off
 
nwaf16dude's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: 737A
Posts: 1,890
Default

So, how old can the single-pilot be? Haven't seen anyone address this. Are you really going to have a 777 going across the ocean with a 60 year old guy alone in the cockpit, while his 64.5 year old buddy is having a stroke in the crew bunk?

I tend to agree with Rick regarding the feasibility of this whole idea.
nwaf16dude is offline  
Old 02-17-2011, 06:11 AM
  #90  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Elliot's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: "Prof" button manipulator
Posts: 1,685
Default

Originally Posted by nwaf16dude View Post
So, how old can the single-pilot be? Haven't seen anyone address this. Are you really going to have a 777 going across the ocean with a 60 year old guy alone in the cockpit, while his 64.5 year old buddy is having a stroke in the crew bunk?

I tend to agree with Rick regarding the feasibility of this whole idea.
Why assume the crew of the aircraft has to be 60+ years of age? Why not allow the "older, more experienced" crewmembers to have an "after retirement" job from the airline and occupy the seats of the Ground Control Stations (GCS)?

Again, I'm not saying it'll happen anytime soon, but if it were ever to near fielding wouldn't regulations for age/crew position be similar to the new laws being put in place for not having two 60+ guys flying in the cockpit now?

V/R,

GJ
Elliot is offline  
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
JustaRampagent
Cargo
13
03-08-2008 07:51 PM
AFPirate
Major
38
01-17-2008 02:46 PM
aerospacepilot
Regional
59
07-01-2007 04:57 PM
SWAjet
Corporate
40
05-02-2007 05:01 AM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Your Privacy Choices