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Obligatory Pilot Shortage Article

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Obligatory Pilot Shortage Article

Old 02-14-2011, 04:52 AM
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The paper and speech is free, have at it. I've highlighted in bold the parts I think are more pertinent to major airline pilots since this is the major airline forum:



From Aviation Week and Space Technology, January 24/31 2011 page 112

“Pilot shortage” is a thread that has waxed and waned over the last decade, but which has yet to become a reality – except for some unfortunate airlines in high growth markets where demand already outpaces supply.

Raising the retirement age for pilots and cutting fleet capacity during the economic downturn postponed the problem for most airlines, but Boeing and others are warning the day of reckoning is fast approaching.

With the five-year reprieve gained by raising the retirement age to 65 drawing to a close, and capacity growth returning, the pilot-shortage thread level is again being raised – even in the U.S., where hundreds of furloughed flight crew remain to be recalled.

Based on its outlook for global aircraft deliveries, Boeing sees fleet growth and pilot retirements almost doubling the demand for pilots over the next 20 years. Total demand for more than 466,000 pilots is forecast for 2010-29- an average of 23,300 new pilots a year.

The largest growth will be in the Asia-Pacific region, with a requirement for 180,600 pilots – 70,600 of those in China. There is already a growing shortage of pilots in Asia – and in the Middle East, where Boeing forecasts a need for 32,700 pilots in the next 20 years.

Demand in North America and Europe will be unprecedented by recent history standards, with Boeing predicting a need for nearly 97,400 and 94,800 pilots, respectively, in markets that seem ill-prepared to respond.

In the U.S. 37,000 pilots will be needed over next 10 years, rising to 56,000 over the next 14 years, just to replace retirements and not accounting for any fleet expansion. But new-pilot starts are down by 50-80% in the U.S., reaching a 10-year low in 2010 so the pipeline is not being replenished let along expanded.

Reasons include unattractive pay and conditions at the regional airlines, which have traditionally acted as pilot farms for the majors. And those individuals who still want to be pilots now face difficulties obtaining bank financing for training.

Congressional legislation requiring a minimum 1,500 hr. experience, up from 250 hr, will only exacerbate the problem as it will take new pilots 3-4 years, rather than a year, to reach the new target by traditional means.

Last edited by HSLD; 02-16-2011 at 01:18 PM. Reason: Moved back to Major section at OP's request
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Old 02-14-2011, 04:55 AM
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Also, page 147:

Top Technologies to Watch:

Manned and unmanned come together in the concept of "optionally piloted" aircraft to be demonstrated in mid-2011 by Sikorsky using a UH-60M helicopter.

The modified Black Hawk will fly a fully autonomous cargo mission, from taking off through picking up a load and flying a route, to returning for the next pickup.

Unmanned resupply is an early application of Sikorsky's optionally piloted concept - the ability to selectively remove one or both pilots from the cockpit while maintaining the full spectrum of Black Hawk capabilities.

Also this year Aurora Flight Sciences plans to begin deliveries of its Centaur, an optionally piloted aircraft based on the Diamond DA42 that can be operated manned in civil airspace or unmanned for extended endurance.

The U.S. Air Force's next bomber is expected to be optionally manned as well.







More:
Military.com: Optionally Manned Black Hawk

Optionally manned spy plane to fly this year

Optionally manned A10?

Last edited by forgot to bid; 02-14-2011 at 05:16 AM.
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Old 02-14-2011, 05:34 AM
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Originally Posted by forgot to bid View Post
Also, page 147:

Top Technologies to Watch:

Manned and unmanned come together in the concept of "optionally piloted" aircraft to be demonstrated in mid-2011 by Sikorsky using a UH-60M helicopter.

The modified Black Hawk will fly a fully autonomous cargo mission, from taking off through picking up a load and flying a route, to returning for the next pickup.

Unmanned resupply is an early application of Sikorsky's optionally piloted concept - the ability to selectively remove one or both pilots from the cockpit while maintaining the full spectrum of Black Hawk capabilities.

Also this year Aurora Flight Sciences plans to begin deliveries of its Centaur, an optionally piloted aircraft based on the Diamond DA42 that can be operated manned in civil airspace or unmanned for extended endurance.

The U.S. Air Force's next bomber is expected to be optionally manned as well.


More:
Military.com: Optionally Manned Black Hawk

Optionally manned spy plane to fly this year

Optionally manned A10?
The cargo helos will not carry people, are intended for very specific applications, and will not be operating in the national airspace system. Basically they were created to resupply troops in afghanistan where roads are long, rough, and dangerous. They are convoy replacement, not a manned-helicopter replacement.

The "optionally manned" bomber means the AF does not trust pilotless aircraft with certain missions (specifically nuclear).
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Old 02-14-2011, 05:43 AM
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I'll start to worry about unmanned aircraft eliminating my job when I see unmanned freight trains rolling across the country, unmanned cargo ships plowing through our harbors, and unmanned eighteen wheelers rolling down the interstate.

When the first unmanned drone fireballs into a residential area out of control (accidental or intended uplink interference), that system will get pushed back out to the far reaches of the uninhabited desert faster than you can say "Remote Controlled City Taxi".

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Old 02-14-2011, 05:51 AM
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Originally Posted by DC8DRIVER View Post
I'll start to worry about unmanned aircraft eliminating my job when I see unmanned freight trains rolling across the country, unmanned cargo ships plowing through our harbors, and unmanned eighteen wheelers rolling down the interstate.

When the first unmanned drone fireballs into a residential area out of control (accidental or intended uplink interference), that system will get pushed back out to the far reaches of the uninhabited desert faster than you can say "Remote Controlled City Taxi".

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Well said!
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Old 02-14-2011, 06:19 AM
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As with that Black Hawk, it won't totally be unmanned. It could go from 2 pilots to 1 and that's what has my attention. If you could take an airliner from 2 pilots to 1 or a 4 man 777/767/340/380/747 to 2, then the previous pilot shortage numbers can be sliced in half.

Another link of interest: Embraer reveals vision for single-pilot airliners

Even now, you could scoff at the idea of un-modified airliner going from two to single pilot or just go look at line check airman training at most airlines or just ask them if theyve ever flown 'single pilot'.
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Old 02-14-2011, 06:27 AM
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1 pilot airliners .. won't happen.
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Old 02-14-2011, 06:28 AM
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dont forget the multi crew license pilot. good for cruise, bath room breaks for captain and one emergency landing. one because if they screw up there wont be another attempt.
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Old 02-14-2011, 07:09 AM
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Actually, the USAF has already used unmanned cargo planes in combat during OIF/OEF.

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Old 02-14-2011, 07:21 AM
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Anybody familiar with the current "issues" with existing RPA's, knows it will be a long time before there is any significant number of RPA's cris-crossing the country in the National Airspace System...and that's before they ever put a passenger on one. Afghanistan is one thing...the FAA's kingdom over the US is entirely another.
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