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Old 09-13-2023, 11:59 AM
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No unconfirmed rumors, but speculation and opinions are definitely welcome.

HA holdings is down 20% YTD. It fluctuates quite a bit percentage wise because itís below 10 dollars a share. Stock traded for $40 a share less than 10 years ago. Multiple quarters of consecutive loss already.

Costs increasing to ramp up to take Amazon flying. 321 fleet hobbled with manufacturer engine defects. 787 delayed. 717 is coming up on replacement time. Southwest moving on interisland routes. And Maui going to have less tourists to the Kanapali side for the foreseeable future. Hard to take on debt due to high interest levels. All this with a recession looming for USA with leisure travelers already budget stretched.

What does everyone see happening at Hawaiian in the near future?
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Old 09-13-2023, 12:15 PM
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Hopefully a new CEO.
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Old 09-13-2023, 02:40 PM
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In fairness, all airlines are down quite a bit, and Hawaiian is no exception. You can track the pulse of the industry via JETS.

Hawaiian has a great (lucrative) market flying to/from Japan that's roaring back as they were very slow to return to normalcy post-COVID. My concern is Hawaiian getting in bed with Amazon and doing Prime flying because Hawaiian doesn't own that flying per se, but is yet another subcontractor. To me, that's like flying for a regional - you think you're good, even wholly owned, and then the hammer drops because none of the flying you do is really yours and it got either reduced or outsourced to someone else.

I'd really like to see Hawaiian expand the hell out of its passenger widebody flying beyond pre-COVID levels.
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Old 09-13-2023, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by RJSAviator76 View Post
In fairness, all airlines are down quite a bit, and Hawaiian is no exception. You can track the pulse of the industry via JETS.

Hawaiian has a great (lucrative) market flying to/from Japan that's roaring back as they were very slow to return to normalcy post-COVID. My concern is Hawaiian getting in bed with Amazon and doing Prime flying because Hawaiian doesn't own that flying per se, but is yet another subcontractor. To me, that's like flying for a regional - you think you're good, even wholly owned, and then the hammer drops because none of the flying you do is really yours and it got either reduced or outsourced to someone else.

I'd really like to see Hawaiian expand the hell out of its passenger widebody flying beyond pre-COVID levels.
For me, the Amazon contract is the reason Iím not super concerned for the future of the company. At least for the interim it will be guaranteed revenue flow until we get through the 321 engine issues and Lahaina fires impact on tourism. Long term is yet to be determined for the Amazon stuff. I have also heard that bookings are bouncing back for maui and cancellations after October are minimal. Some passengers arenít cancelling their hawaii vacations, but are changing them to either Lihue, or Kona. The Japanese passengers are no doubt returning.
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Old 09-13-2023, 02:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Hawaii808 View Post
For me, the Amazon contract is the reason Iím not super concerned for the future of the company. At least for the interim it will be guaranteed revenue flow until we get through the 321 engine issues and Lahaina fires impact on tourism. Long term is yet to be determined for the Amazon stuff. I have also heard that bookings are bouncing back for maui and cancellations after October are minimal. Some passengers arenít cancelling their hawaii vacations, but are changing them to either Lihue, or Kona. The Japanese passengers are no doubt returning.
Exactly... the interim. My concern is what happens in 10 years when the contract is up. I could see Amazon try to whipsaw you against others and/or cancel the contract putting you in a bad spot: accept crappy wages/conditions or lose the flying altogether and then major stagnation or furloughs even... the joys of not owning your flying. That's why I'm a big fan of you guys expanding the hell out of your passenger widebody flying that you own.

I just flew to OGG the other day for the first time since the fires and saw Lahaina... man, talk about heartbreaking.
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Old 09-14-2023, 12:14 PM
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SWA+HA would be a great combo for both sides.
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Old 09-14-2023, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Traffic Alert View Post
SWA+HA would be a great combo for both sides.
Hmmm, my close friends who fly for SWA say that they struggle to operationally manage what they have with 1 aircraft type and that 2 types would be a disaster, let alone 5, and then they would suddenly do international with limited experience. On top of that their systems and processes are the least compatible with any airline, including boarding and ticketing (no codeshares), they don't fly redeyes, they don't have classes in boarding and so on...it is a very bad fit for both companies in my opinion, I don't see much leveraged in terms of synergy between the 2 companies and I see a lot that would be a net negative. I was told by one pilot their dated reservation / ticketing system is why they don't do codeshares and also why they board the way they do without reserved seats and why it is such a terrible system. I don't know if that is true, but from what I see flying them and flying ANY other airline there is not a good fit, but they did buy Air Tran for the routes, however a few flights to Costa Rica and a few other central america / carribean locations compared to going to Asia, Australia and New Zealand is a different animal. So, it makes almost no operational sense, but doesn't mean it won't happen..
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Old 09-15-2023, 08:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Rama View Post
Hopefully a new CEO.
So many rumors revolving this one, one would think they would let him see the the Dreamliner get delivered then announce his ďdepartureĒ yadda yadda yadda. Time for someone with a vision and the ability to rally the troops. Heís completely lost the employees, which was once the greatest asset here.

Who knows maybe this 2023 survey will be telling 😂
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Old 09-15-2023, 10:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Hawaii808 View Post
For me, the Amazon contract is the reason Iím not super concerned for the future of the company. Ag.
Donít bet too high on Amazon. They pulled AmeriJet and Silver short notice. There is likely a nice ďearly termination feeĒ should the contract drop, but that wonít save the pilots on the street, only the golden parachute. rumors from other Amazon pilot groups is that loading is difficult, delays are common (aircraft conversions) and itís not any cheaper than the 767.

The true concern is the A321 NEO engine problem. Last article I read had them down 50% of their entire A320 fleet in 2024. Unless a solution is reached, the company will likely beÖ the Big B.

I feel for Hawaiian Airlines and pilots. I donít know anyone left there anymore, but itís not a good situation. If youíre sticking it out for island life, maybe worth it. If youíre there for anything else, just study airline history.
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Old 09-16-2023, 12:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Frank717 View Post
Donít bet too high on Amazon. They pulled AmeriJet and Silver short notice. There is likely a nice ďearly termination feeĒ should the contract drop, but that wonít save the pilots on the street, only the golden parachute. rumors from other Amazon pilot groups is that loading is difficult, delays are common (aircraft conversions) and itís not any cheaper than the 767.

The true concern is the A321 NEO engine problem. Last article I read had them down 50% of their entire A320 fleet in 2024. Unless a solution is reached, the company will likely beÖ the Big B.

I feel for Hawaiian Airlines and pilots. I donít know anyone left there anymore, but itís not a good situation. If youíre sticking it out for island life, maybe worth it. If youíre there for anything else, just study airline history.
Cool it Frank. Weíve been down 20-25% of our NEOs for a couple quarters and weíre inches from profitability. Just have to keep consolidating our flights and end up operating more wide bodies. Also could accelerate Amazon hiring and implement a freeze on any new hires on the A321Neos. HA is about the island life. Wouldnít want to be at FedEx, number 15000 at a legacy, or suffering the abyss of SWA/ULCCs these days either.
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