Pilot Hiring Forecast?
 

May be in the wrong place but, I'm curious to hear everyones opinion/insight on the status (hiring boom) of the Pilot Job market that we seem to be in now and if you think it will be the same, better, or worse in the next few years. Thanks.

Be careful, in my limited time here I can tell you that the question well bring out the most jaded of individuals. Lol. Though I'm following the thread also.

From all I've seen the number of active pilots expected to be lost each year at the majors is 600+. And it grows roughly 50-100 a year.

Please interested that I am NOT a commercial pilot, and base this off of two things. An uncle who's flown for expressjet and frontier for a quite some time and websites (such as American) that have cute lil infographics.

Yes, a large hiring period coming up. It is, compared to past booms, heavily based on retirements that cannot be put off so it will happen. OTOH, seniority puts a premium on being in early, the forecast is for the next 8-10 years of large hiring periods at all carriers as the '80s and 90s hires leave. Getting in with a legacy thru about 2021 should ensure a great career, later date of hire will tend to put pilots on the back side of the seniority list. Growth is an unknown, if the hiring is for retirements, there will be a period of stagnation unless significant growth in airline fleets and block hours occurs.

There was a huge bulge in hiring during the '83-'89 timeframe as the 60s hires left, then a furlough period as the lines overhired into a early '90s recession, followed by some hiring fir attrition and growth until 9/11 hit. Along with recession and 9/11, the flight engineers on the B727, B747 and DC-10 fleets were eliminated, all of which created the last 14 years on stagnation leading to a boom.

I know several recent DL, AA and UA hires who are in the early 30s, they will be senior wide-body captains most of their careers.

I've only looked at this boom and bust cycle for 45 years, so what do I know?

GF

Thanks for the input. The wife's uncle (legacy pilot) has been telling me to throw my hat in the ring for years but I've been waiting.

Thanks for the response. I'm retiring from the Mil summer of 18 and wanted to get an idea of the job market. Looks to be a good time to transition.

With every boom, there's a crunch.
Difficult to predict when and who get's it.

Tread carefully.

Barring some huge economic collapse we should see good numbers moving forward. While much of the hiring is retirement related there is some growth at certain carriers. The regional world probably has the most uncertainty moving forward though I believe some part of that segment will always exist. The legacy cargo carriers UPS and FedEx should have moderate numbers over the next decade. That leaves the ACMI world of Atlas, Kalitta, ABX etc. All,are hiring now but that could easily change. atlas probably needs to hire 300-350 above attrition to to deal with the amazon contract, that may be difficult in this environment. Kalitta has said they would like to hire 100-130 this year and even with the new CBA that may be a challenge. Overall, the outlook is good across the industry I think. Certainly hired sooner rather than later is good for seniority reasons unless your segment is corporate which has a fairly robust outlook as well.

Its the best I've seen in the last 20+ years. Retirements and growth and cheap oil are all contributing. A catastrophic event could change all that like 911 did.
If you want to throw your hat in the ring now is the time as long you canhandle the low wages for the first few years or so,

Does anyone have data on the number of people entering the profession?

Up until about two years ago, regional airlines essentially paid pilots wages below the poverty line. Now that wages have increased, are more people entering the profession?

Entering the profession?--an unknown unknown. There are thousands in the sidelines w/o applications. Example: I was waiting in the USAFR, no FAA medical, so unknown to the civilian field. I got, what turned out to be a great move, got a physical suddenly a new pilot. Loads of guys and gals out there, make the T&Cs good enough and they appear. I know an AD we who wasn't interested in leaving, six months later a new hire at DL, now with 2,500 below him.

There's something like 14,000 jet corporate pilots, most are staying, but it could be a big source of pilots, if really needed. I know six former RJ captains that say they won't go back to 121, any bets?

GF