Is the party almost over (already)?
08-05-2018, 10:05 PM
#11
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Joined APC: Dec 2015
Position: B777 CA
Posts: 734
Originally Posted by BobSacamano
With airlines so sensitive to fuel costs, what does everybody think about the future of the industry and hiring in particular over the next decade given this: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-oil-...ing-1532775605 ?
Massive pilot retirements
Mergers that created a profitable industry
No one coming in at the bottom
225,000 new pilot jobs to be created in China over next 20 years
Boeing predicts 790,000 new pilot jobs in next 20 years - double the amount as today worldwide.
Southwest and United state they don’t know who they going to hire in 5 to 10 years.
We are on precipitous of the largest global pilot shortage in the history of aviation and nothing is hung to stop it!
China used to pay 300K for expat captains. Now one company is paying up to 500K for CA’s and up to 300K for FO’s. I predict in 10 years they will be paying up to 800K for captains.
Not that I’d recommend going to fly in China. But this will play havoc with the global supply and demand and retaining pilots. At United medium new hire age was 49 a few years back. If I’m
correct with my projections of future China pay. Will have age 60 FO’s and junior CA’s leaving in droves for China for the last five years at those rates. That increases our retirements even that much more.
It’s going to be truly a pilots market in a few more years.
08-05-2018, 10:22 PM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2017
Position: Captain
Posts: 278
Originally Posted by jpncrjdriver
Law makers will ALL WAYS submit to big money... Here in J-Land ALL the Airlines being short pushed and bingo, GOOD-TO-GO til 68th Birthday by "Law"... However unlike USA sim and medical hoops to jump thru... Never say Never...
Kampai
Kampai
on the other hand, todays millenial has no interest in becoming a Pilot. that would mean they have to work weekends and work in a structured environment, in a uniform of all things.
08-06-2018, 01:31 AM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2014
Position: CRJ Left/Right
Posts: 151
Barry
Did not say big money wants OLD drivers... They want drivers period... If not enough young drivers showing up then try and keep what ya got... Old or not... That's all I was trying to say... That was J-lands answer along with expats...
Kampai
Did not say big money wants OLD drivers... They want drivers period... If not enough young drivers showing up then try and keep what ya got... Old or not... That's all I was trying to say... That was J-lands answer along with expats...
Kampai
08-06-2018, 10:42 AM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 173
Originally Posted by Boeing Aviator
Over, hasn’t even started. There is no pilot shortage today at the legacies. However it’s coming and nothings going to stop it.
Massive pilot retirements
Mergers that created a profitable industry
No one coming in at the bottom
225,000 new pilot jobs to be created in China over next 20 years
Boeing predicts 790,000 new pilot jobs in next 20 years - double the amount as today worldwide.
Southwest and United state they don’t know who they going to hire in 5 to 10 years.
We are on precipitous of the largest global pilot shortage in the history of aviation and nothing is hung to stop it!
China used to pay 300K for expat captains. Now one company is paying up to 500K for CA’s and up to 300K for FO’s. I predict in 10 years they will be paying up to 800K for captains.
Not that I’d recommend going to fly in China. But this will play havoc with the global supply and demand and retaining pilots. At United medium new hire age was 49 a few years back. If I’m
correct with my projections of future China pay. Will have age 60 FO’s and junior CA’s leaving in droves for China for the last five years at those rates. That increases our retirements even that much more.
It’s going to be truly a pilots market in a few more years.
Massive pilot retirements
Mergers that created a profitable industry
No one coming in at the bottom
225,000 new pilot jobs to be created in China over next 20 years
Boeing predicts 790,000 new pilot jobs in next 20 years - double the amount as today worldwide.
Southwest and United state they don’t know who they going to hire in 5 to 10 years.
We are on precipitous of the largest global pilot shortage in the history of aviation and nothing is hung to stop it!
China used to pay 300K for expat captains. Now one company is paying up to 500K for CA’s and up to 300K for FO’s. I predict in 10 years they will be paying up to 800K for captains.
Not that I’d recommend going to fly in China. But this will play havoc with the global supply and demand and retaining pilots. At United medium new hire age was 49 a few years back. If I’m
correct with my projections of future China pay. Will have age 60 FO’s and junior CA’s leaving in droves for China for the last five years at those rates. That increases our retirements even that much more.
It’s going to be truly a pilots market in a few more years.
08-06-2018, 10:50 AM
#15
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Joined APC: Apr 2017
Position: Captain
Posts: 278
Originally Posted by BobSacamano
Yeah, and that all sounds fantastic, but count me as someone who has heard this song before and then comes 9/11 or 2009. It’ll be interesting to see how the majors fare with higher fuel (and, increasingly, higher labor) costs...
08-06-2018, 07:55 PM
#16
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Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 668
Originally Posted by BarrySeal
"worry about what you can control, not what you can't"
The difference would just be in your approach, I think....
08-06-2018, 08:08 PM
#17
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Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 3,090
Originally Posted by BobSacamano
Yeah, and that all sounds fantastic, but count me as someone who has heard this song before and then comes 9/11 or 2009. It’ll be interesting to see how the majors fare with higher fuel (and, increasingly, higher labor) costs...
08-06-2018, 08:12 PM
#18
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Joined APC: Apr 2017
Position: Captain
Posts: 278
Originally Posted by All Bizniz
It's a great quote, but if something has the potential to affect you negatively, you would be wise to "worry" about it; whether it's in your control or not...
The difference would just be in your approach, I think....
The difference would just be in your approach, I think....
08-06-2018, 10:09 PM
#19
Disinterested Third Party
Joined APC: Jun 2012
Posts: 6,003
Far less than worrying about a reduction in hiring, be concerned about an economic downturn, because that's what is going to cut the market and top hiring (and start furloughs). It WILL happen, as any of us that have been around the block a few times, and who have been through them, know.
Booms and busts do not last. The business is there presently; it wont' be if the economy crashes...and it will.
There are a lot of pilots out there who remember riding high in their careers when the bottom fell out due to the economy, mergers, downsizing, furloughs, bankruptcies, and any other manner of events that regularly occur in the industry.
It will happen.
Booms and busts do not last. The business is there presently; it wont' be if the economy crashes...and it will.
There are a lot of pilots out there who remember riding high in their careers when the bottom fell out due to the economy, mergers, downsizing, furloughs, bankruptcies, and any other manner of events that regularly occur in the industry.
It will happen.
08-07-2018, 08:58 AM
#20
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Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 668
Originally Posted by BarrySeal
ok well a meteor hitting the earth might affect me, but...
Didn't think I'd have to do it but let me rephrase:
"It's a great quote, but if something has a high/somewhat reasonable potential to affect you negatively, you would be wise to "worry" about it; whether it's in your control or not...
The difference would just be in your approach, I think...."
Think: Likelihood, Proximity and Severity of the effect.
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