I am curious which regional that is. Seems that Republic will be ok once FO's start flowing out of LIFT. Endeavor seems like they'll be ok because of their pay structure. Envoy/PSA/Piedmont will do ok because of their advertised flow to AA (even if their reputation for pay and QOL sucks).

I agree that all the "talking it up" had driven more people to flight academies, even at crazy prices/cost.

Oil?
 

I don't read much chatter on oil prices, these days. The airline growth and low ticket prices were influenced greatly by OPEC's attempt to put the squeeze on domestic oil producers. This happened by dumping oil into the market at reduced prices. It caused domestics to scale back exploration and infrastructure investment, and the smaller outfits to close down. They are waiting for their time to cut production (prices jump). This won't be a blip on the budget sheet, this will be in a large scale, bottom line shakes thing, if history repeats itself. When this happens, tickets go up, ridership falls, airlines scale back and the pendulum swings the other way. I can't help but feel this is left out of so many conversations it belongs in? Sometimes I can't tell if I'm being old (cynical) or wise....

On the up side, it's nice to see fresh training going on. I've taken my first primary students in a over a decade. Professionals in their own fields, looking to enjoy aviation. The came to us because the schools aren't interested in adults looking to spend their cash on childhood pursuits or business needs. They are looking for the financed career chasing youth. Need to have room for both, in my opinion.

Safe travels to you all~

While I don't think there is any such thing as a paradigm shift in economics (New Economy anyone?), I do think the airline industry is in a major cycle transition:


1. Obviously the primary driver is the retirements that are hitting and will continue to increase and remain high over the next decade. No one disputes this.


2. The military is not producing nearly as many pilots as it used to. This one is not as obvious, but most people out there, pilots and non-pilots alike, do not appreciate how drastically our military pilot pool has shrunk over the decades. WW2 produced tons of pilots, as did the Cold War, and many of these pilots went onto airline careers (see #1). Then the Cold War ended (my freshman year of college) and our military has steadily reduced the number of cockpits and pilots ever since. Bottom line: the airline industry historically has depended on just about 50% of their pilot force to come from the military. That is no longer the case, and will remain so for a very long time if not forever.


3. The economy under Trump, love him or hate him, is the best it has ever been, period. We are not in a bubble such as the 90's tech bubble or the 00's housing bubble. This boom does not appear to be sustained by any one particular sector of the economy. I reserve the right to be wrong on this one, but I think that Trump's policy of removing business-strangling regulations that have piled up over the decades is at the core of this; our economy is simply adjusting for a reduction in red tape and over-regulation. Again, I reserve the right to be wrong.


What this adds up to is a perfect storm for an airline pilot shortage: you have large numbers of pilots that have to leave the ranks due to mandatory retirement, you have a supply shortage from the military pilot ranks, and a booming economy in which the majors are consistently talking about expanding (i.e., more cockpits to fill).


It's a good time to be in this industry.






While I agree that the oil market is generally cyclical, and that OPEC can play their games to affect prices, I do think that fracking and the resurgence of the American oil industry is a game changer. Something I noticed this entire year is that oil never went above $70 a barrel, despite the prediction that it would. I can't help but think that fracking has indeed brought a stability to the oil markets that it has lacked. And it is now here for the long term. Again, I reserve the right to be wrong.

Oil?

North Dakota produces more monthly than Venezuela.

GF

I have and plan to continue to steer family and friends away from this industry. Simply too many opportunities and rewards in other industries with less hassle and debt!

It takes more time and money to mint a pilot than any other position. All other support personell can be hired at a bus stop. This growth has been good for everyone except mechanics, his job left the country and will never return.

It works better if you really love flying.

It's also a good job for people with potential but no desire to burn the candle at both ends for 40 years.

But there are definitely pilots out there who tend to be frustrated with the pace and monotony of airlines, some of them could have have done really well in other fields.

I think it will be back eventually, if there's ever a major accident due to outsourced heavy checks in a country where high-on-the-job is the norm and drug testing is illegal. Or the Bad Guys access and modify a plane getting a D-check in some third-world hole.

(Largely in terms of the automobile industry):

One thing to keep in mind is that the next time oil prices are abnormally high for too long (because I agree with you, history does repeat itself), there will be more strength/pressure that private industry and government regulation can have through leveraging investment (and purchases) in electric technology. This will help counteract any sustained massive price hikes. SUV/truck sales have been outpacing cars for a long time now, so a dramatic rise in oil prices will scare a lot of SUV/truck owners and shift that pendulum back to cars... possibly electric cars. OPEC won't want manufacturing companies to shift their production lines back toward electric vehicles (or 'attempting' to produce as in the Chevy Volt debacle).

If OPEC is smart, they won't spike the prices too drastically for too long as a way to fend off a shift in buying trends. They'd be shooting themselves in the foot. It's not 2003 anymore where people were starting to seeing occasional hybrid and electric cars on the road. Electric vehicles can now be a real threat to traditional vehicles. Sort of like when you have the best hand in poker... you don't go all in if the other player is going to change their betting strategy and fold. Instead you milk them for as much as you can for as long as you can.

IMO I find it hard to imagine oil prices spiking to a level that it causes a massive and sustained impact to aviation; it will take a large combination of economical pressures to suppress the need for pilots to the point of zero hiring and furloughs. I see oil prices going back up, but if it's the only economical factor it more than likely will just be a blip on the budget sheet for a few years.

Doing research to become a pilot
 

For someone who is looking to start from scratch to become an airline pilot, what does the pilot shortage for the majors truly look like? Like it has been discussed somewhat in previous posts I would think this is what would really drive the shortage. Is there a current shortage of pilots at the majors currently? If there is not a shortage is the shortage at the regionals due directly due to majors hiring from the pool of Regional pilots? Does anyone have any links to articles that could give me more information on the "pilot shortage"? I am looking for a career change, and while I understand nothing is guaranteed in life, I would hate to make that kind of finanacial commitment without doing the proper research. Has anyone taken advantage of any of the programs the regionals are offering as far as flight training goes and is it worth working with these programs? Thanks in advance for the help.