AIN: Is the Pilot Shortage Over?
 

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-n...ource=hs_email

The author thinks the shortage will be back with a vengeance once a vaccine is out and flying returns to more or less normal.

So do I, whether there is a vaccine or not. COVID has caused a number of Airline pilots to retire earlier than they would have and rather a lot of wOutdoor-be airline pilots who might have gone into training to put the brakes on. It has also caused and/or will soon cause disruption in the career progression at the regionals. A number of regionals have disappeared and more are likely to follow while many of the junior people at the regionals have either been furloughed or are simply not flying the hours they need for timely career progression. At the same time the most senior people at regionals - while they are continuing to fly - are getting older and many are reaching the point where being a career regional lifer will be a better QOL than going to a major and facing years of reserve fir a major right seat at not much more pay. Those senior regional guys just going career regional blocks career progression - at least to some degree - for everyone behind them.

of course, none of that matters until demand returns, but the pilot pipeline has lag time and it simply can’t be turned on immediately. So yeah, in the end COVID results in a worsening of the pilot shortage.

I predict the shortage will be back in a few years. My estimate by 2025. By then furloughs will have been recalled, demand will be back to normal, and the airlines will have worked through the early retirements.

Unless there is another black swan event

https://i.ibb.co/jGYgmbW/1670-DFBF-0...1-BF677-F5.jpg

Maybe one day. If it is going to take five years to go back to 2019 revenue, there will be a shortage of bankruptcy lawyers at the majors.

I think some pilots will find other careers (truck driver, cars salesman, manager, etc.) to meet family needs in the near term. After a few years of moving up the ladder, they will not want to leave the security to make 40K as a regional FO and have a repeat furlough event. I was planning to go to the airlines soon since about at ATP mins. Either by choice or reality, I’m planning on waiting until my daughter leaves the house before making the move now.

As they say.... the Devil is in the details.... however, I'd say the prediction of a V recovery will prove to be very accurate.

Glad you agree.

A "V" shaped recovery in 5 years does us no good when everyone is bankrupt.