Hiring in 10 years
 

Got a question for you all. I can't tell the future, and I don't expect you to, but maybe we can get some ideas thrown about. I'm going to college right now and hope to secure a good job for 2 years to build funds to start flight training and eliminate the need for any loans (and if needed, very low loan < $7,500). Get ratings, build time CFI'ing, yadda yadda. On my timeline, the earliest I'd be getting to a regional would be around 2028 & 2029 on the liberal side, and 2030 - 2031 on the conservative side. What is the outlook then for hiring? I know this upcoming decade there are supposedly lots of old-timers who are reaching their 65 age limit, but what about 9 - 10 years from now. Will I have a little more trouble getting hired once the hiring boom is over?

As you stated, no one can predict the future. And there's always that disclaimer on my investment portfolio funds that state "past performance does not necessarily predict future results". As you saw with Covid, things can change rapidly in this industry- one minute it's the apocalypse and the next minute airlines are scrambling to buy planes / hire pilots.


What I really like about your plan is you are not going into debt (or very minimal) for this career- that is my two cents of advice I give to everyone. You will also have an education and hopefully some experience in whatever field you are entering (outside of aviation) before you take the plunge into aviation full-time. Maybe you'll have a great job, a family, and will weigh the benefits of entering the industry depending on how it looks at that time. Perhaps instructing on the side and buying your own plane will be enough for you. Either way, you'll have options and the ability to fall back on your education/skills if the time isn't right in ten years.


Your plan sound solid and the rest will work itself out.


Best of luck to you.

Every 9 years the industry takes a crap. You’ll be ready right about the next disaster, then it’ll recover.

Thanks for this. I didn't know if there were any additional resources regarding pilot retirements besides what I see from these zero-to-hero programs that the airlines are offering (which you should avoid at all costs from what I know) that maybe I was missing/couldn't find. I've been pretty dead set on being a pilot, doing it day in and day out until I hit retirement. Can't see myself spending almost every day on the ground doing a normal programming job until I retire but who knows, maybe I'll be content with being a CFI and flying on the side if something changes in the future. Never one to deny a possibility.

Or, for plan B...
 

There are other options for a college graduate - depending on degree and geographic location....

https://bogidope.com/upt/the-state-o...20Requirements

I did ultimately decided that ROTC/form of military wasn't for me. It took some time but it just isn't for me. Its also not right to do military training just to get free training. I'd rather do the civilian route of CFI and regional. Can't describe exactly why, just not for me. Thanks,

Hiring is cyclical in aviation. The industry is a leading edge indicator of economic prosperity and decline, though faster to decline than recover, and there's a high probability that in your career you'll find yourself losing a job with short notice (furloughs, bankruptcies, mergers, downturns, etc), and that hiring will become scarce for periods of one to several years.

Discounting unpredictable intrusions such as the pandemic, aviation has typically rolled on a ten year cycle with highs and lows, but this is imprecise and unpredictable.

Bear in mind that there is far more to do in aviation than fly for the airlines. The path is not as narrow as some may think.

I'm retiring from the military. I wouldn't feel bad at all about the "free training".... the military will get their pound of flesh out of you in the 10÷ years after UPT. However getting a UPT slot may not be guaranteed and in the past getting a manned plane out of UPT was not guaranteed. If the other aspects of the military interest you though is definitely look into it situation.

The industry has cycles... at your age you don't need to be too concerned about them.

All you can really do over the course of a career is occasionally do a full-court press to get to the next level if there's a hiring boom that you don't want to miss. But you can't always progress fast enough, so sometimes you just ride it out.

If your opportunities are lower at the beginning of your career, it will almost certainly make up for it later... you'll suddenly find your seniority moving fast, upgrade, bigger planes all falling in your lap. It tends to pour when it rains.

Economic and population growth will drive demand for air travel, so you're not only dependent on retirements.

Carbon concerns might slow the industry a bit, but they seem to be developing work-arounds. Most governments cannot severely hamper air travel because the economic damage will be reflected in their tax revenues.

Automation is hard to predict, but anyone with a technical background background can plainly see that it's over-hyped. Worst case, if you fly cargo you might be alone in the cockpit at the end of your career.

As for the mil, yeah don't do that just for the flying part, you need to be committed to the whole program. But be aware that airline operations (and culture) bears some similarities to mil operations (and culture). It's a big responsibility, and grownup rules apply.

Wise insights, Rick. I agree.