Superpilot92

MCL is a long way away especially after the attention this colgan crash is bringing towards training standards. Also the avg joe cant just on a whim become a pilot these days like they could have a couple years ago. The credit market has dried up for those needing loans and large number of schools have shut down. Not to mention the cost of renting a plane these days is close to double what it was a decade ago. The risk vs reward isnt in this profession like it used to be and people are figuring that out. we're coming up on 2 years of age 65 change so we should start seeing guys dropping off soon. we'll see

Iowapilot

I was looking at the airlines wages and I was wondering if US Airways has a typo. The most junior Captain was hired in 1988??

geosynchronous

The B.L.S 2008-2009 Occupational Outlook Handbook suggests a 13% growth in all (aviation) occupations, on par with the November 2005 data originally posted. Possibly, the age 65 rule is built in to this forecast. The GDP contraction of Q4 2008 most likely is not.

In 2006, 7918 people turned 60 each day. If this statistic holds, 7918 people per day will turn 65 in 2011. How many of these people are professional pilots? I do not know. It does solidify a potential labor shortage when you correlate this with the decline of student pilot applications.

The potential for a [new] Vietnam-era hiring boom is real as Ski-Patrol suggests, ceteris paribus.

AirbusA320

Are we getting setup for a pilot shortage? Regionals were hiring folks with 350TT, it seems like they were looking very hard for pilots. I believe new student starts are down due to the economy, it's hard to get a loan for training. Displaced corporate or Part 135 types will find new work in other fields and may never return to flying.

Kids nowadays are not interested in flying, they are into Ipods, Twitter, Xbox, and the Inernet.

Short Bus Drive

Hey Rick,
What do we do if we are NOT young, AND have a kid?

BTW, is that "R" in your avatar for the Scarlet Knights? My wife's an asst. prof. there.
And is your dad based in "JFK" on the bus. Might have flown with him before I got f'd in Sept.!!!

pilotkitch

This is prob pretty close to the truth, my dad went left seat last year in the little bus and he was a 04/1986 date of hire. He only did it for a year for he could only hold short call reserve and was having to sit in Philly 25 days a month. He went back to the right side of the 75/76 for quality of life.

atpcliff

Hi!

New student starts, CPL awards, and ATPL awards, have been going down and down, every year since about 2000.

The numbers of people turning 65 each day will be increasing daily over the next few years.

The economy is picking back up, people will want to fly more, and then the age 65 thing will kick in, then MASSIVE SHORTAGES, unless something unusual happens, which is always possible.

cliff
NBO

yxcanned

I agree that there will be a serious shortage when the 65ers start to retire. And this is coming from a triple furloughee from worthless Midwest.

The biggest hiring spree in the last 20 years was the late 90s. Many of the Legacies were hiring 500 - 1000 pilots a year for a while. The Regionals were also hiring a lot, BUT, they were posting 1200TT/200ME mins and didn't have to lower them to fill seats.

During the most recent hiring spree, (06-08) the Legacies hired a handful at best. But the Regionals had to drop way down to 350 tt. It has to be fewer people getting into the profession. These current times will lower student starts even more.

lakehouse

Ya I justed finished at rutgers, my dad def flew with you, I remember him saying he flew with a guy whose wife was at RU, my dad is Rick Thompson, whats your name I will tell him you said hello.......and for those with kids/a life, um um um, Good thing she works for Rutgers go fly jumpers at xkeys?

i121ADX

It's not that we're not interested, it's the fact that I could be working at McDonald's 32 hours a week and make more money per year than a first year RJ F/O. I don't think commercial flying is worth it anymore. If you're entrusted to handle multi-million dollar aircraft and get paid less than my secretary, who does nothing what so ever unless I tell her to do her job, why take the risk?

What will the FAA and NTSB do about anything? They will slap peoples wrists and say "You've been naughty for underpaying pilots. Now go play with the other RJ's and not get in trouble," that's what they'll say. Long hours, lots a fatigue, no pay, why bother?

If you want to have $50,000 in debt making $21,000 per year, have fun, I'll pass and take a desk job in aviation. I would like to retire at 60 and have my student loans paid off. New pilots comming in will retire at 60 and still be paying their loans off.

My .02 on your comment.