When will majors start hiring?
 

Age 65 is around the corner and I can't imaging many are staying till the end. I understand oil and GPD is altering business models going forward but replacements must be on the minds of HR. What's the word on retirements and how soon could replacement vacancies be posted. I would have thought the ramp up in regional hiring was to offset attrition to the majors. If that's not the case we are really going to be looking at large hiring at the regional level. I would have thought by now you would have seen about 1000 major vacancies across the board in 2011. I'm optimistic that this still will happen soon and possibly another 1000 in 2012.

You would have seen more hiring this year if it weren't for the rapid run up of oil again. With oil skyrocketing, cash will be king and the companies will hunker down for survival mode. Once it stabilizes they will better learn to cope. Another factor is that as oil gets so expensive, labor becomes less and less a critical cost.
Hopefully oil will stabilize, and the industry will have an idea on costs going forward. No doubt as prices rise though, overall air travel will decline in response, but as things normalize a bit, and the economy picks up, we'll all be moving again.
LUV

The pilot shortage myth has been around for as long as I can remember. I hope we see huge amounts of hiring and a ton of mainline jobs, but I'm just not that optimistic anymore. I have a bad feeling that once retirements start to happen at the mainline level, airline bean counters will find a way to grow regional operators with bigger aircraft. Management usually always finds a way to get what they want. Look at CAL for example, their mgmt wants 70 seaters real bad and will disguise it as a United Express flight to make it happen. In another thread, Alaska guys are claiming they have no scope at all.

Delta cutting capacity last week ,or so, was the first sign that the expected hiring frenzy of 2012 may not materialize as hoped....

Last week Jetblue announced their form of scope allowance....since they are non-union I'm not sure if their was any form of negotiating with the pilot group or not? But that there is another sign.....

There has been sporatic hiring from JB and SWA. But nothing that will fulfill every pilot with the 1000TPIC quest to move on.

a positive is that eventually oil should work it's way back down a bit once this middle east crap is done..Oh wait they've been war-ing for 2000 years. Never mind:D

OCCP is spot on.... I'd say look for companies like Colgan to start growing massively, much like the upper tier regionals did post 9/11.

I'm not holding my breath for a massive hiring spree. Hope I'm way wrong.

Most major pilots will go to age 65, largely due to the loss of their pensions, and as a general rule inadequate defined contributions to their 401k's etc from their airlines. Couple this with the cost of retiree health insurance soaring (premiums) until medicare age [65]...... The preceding 25 years most majors had defined benefit plans and limited the amounts a pilot could contribute to his 401k or at least had no defined contribution...With distress termination accompanying ch11 most pilots are now having to catch up and self fund a retirement out of approx 50% reduced wages....The amount of capital that you need to have a sustainable income is staggering at today's rates of return......If pilots could go to age 70 they most likely would just because it is that or join the new freight dog union ALPO.....That is for meals, eating dog food......Don't look for a wave of retirements they will go to 65 not out of greed but out of lack of other options.

Age 65 is around the corner? 2013 is a long ways away. It's only 2011.

It's never going to be as bad as the most negative think, nor as good as the most optimistic think. There will be hiring, it will be steady, but it's not going to clear the regionals out in 3 years like some hope. As long as our mainline brethren hold strong to scope mainline management cannot outsource more than they already do. If you want to work for mainline watch carefully what happens in the UAL/CAL merger. It will have a dramatic effect on the future of this industry. If they can get their scope down to 50 it's a major win for this career. It will set a precedent the others will follow. Be willing to fight for the betterment of this profession. If we stand by and do nothing it's our future that will be cut short.

China Factor
 

I think the key to most of your answers lies in the final Aviation Bill passed by Congress on April 1, 2011. In fact, with multiple countries having to contend with coming pilot demand much is at stake. From what I can find, the House version does much to eliminate the new rest rules demanded by the families of Colgan Flight 3407 victims. Should the final bill of the two houses contain the new rest rules, American Airlines alone foresees hiring 2300 pilots. This creates pressure for increasing pilot salaries due to demand, especially in China. I'm of the opinion that China most definitely does not want the new rules as they are having a hard enough time finding people who meet their parameters. With airlines, in conjunction with China who holds much of our debt, pressuring both House and Senate against the new rules, what do you think the final bill will look like? I understand that Delta doesn't foresee any hiring for the rest of the year.

Interesting concept. But do you know of any indication at all other than pure speculation that China is specifically interfering in our legislative process due to concerns that they might suffer from a pilot shortage?

I don't think it's china as much as it is our current employers. However look at the fact it got through the house (Rep majority, big business supporters) Now it has to get through the two remaining Dem controlled entities. Good luck without the rest rules.