LeoSV

with no major outside events, i.e. terrorist activity, oil embargo, depression, etc.. how long do you think it'll take for the minimums to go back up and airlines quit sucking up pilots at such a fast pace? I have 2 years left to get my bachelors, and by that time I will of had about a 1.5 years of instructing under my belt. Hopefully the minimums won't get really high by that time because the airlines would have plenty of pilots by then.

UnlimitedAkro

2 "Aviation Years" is like decades of change...

You'll have a good idea of what is going on when you are a month or two from graduating.

KDUA

I would say 6-8 years. The pilot shortage is not only in US, many continets are suffering at the moment. It is not going to make it easyer when there is a big big shortage of instructores.

UtFlyer

6-8 years? Unless there is some other major ordeal to derail the train from the tracks. The one that happened 6 years ago certainly screwed things up bigtime. Another one of those and the industry might have a really tough time surviving.

Blackhawk

It will continue for a number of years at which time things will slow down.
If you figure it out, please email me as it will have a huge impact on where I invest my money. Also, I know of several investment firms that will hire you.

LeoSV

LOL.. that will probably be at the same time that I figure out the question of "where did we come from?". I'll keep you posted on my findings.

cfii2007

It will continue as long as it takes for me to get hired.....

atpcliff

Hi!

The key here is the big, unusual event.

Barring a big, unusual event, the amount of people wanting to fly in an airline seat is expected to rise a lot through 2020, which is as far as the forecasts I've seen go.

China is booming like CRAZY, and India is about 10 years behind them.

cliff
YIP

PS-The FAA says that by 2011, the numbers of air travellers will increase by 26%.
The number of ATP pilots will be flat.
The number of Commercial pilots will decline.

How is this going to work???

Part135 Guy

Sounds like you're on the right track, and there is really nothing you can do about it in 2 years anyway. Not to be a cynic, but the industry will be what it is in 2 years. The good thing is, if you go to work for a fairly busy flight school, after about a year and a half of full-time instructing you will be at or close to 135 PIC mins (1200TT, 100 night, 75 instr., etc) which will open more doors for you to get that first turbine job. As ol' GW says, "stay the course, keep the focus" Get that 4 year degree, it will make you more competetive and look into flight schools with a good student population on the same track as you... this is where your multi time will come from. Get that MEI as soon as you fiscally can. Good luck.

Billy32

It isn't what the industry does, it is what you do. There are guys from the late 60's and early 70's out there retiring from the left seat of a Dash 8, there are others retiring from the left seat of a 777. In that time there have been many ups and downs. You can't predict the industry, all you can do is try to position yourself securely for the downturns and get what you need to progress on the upswing.

The people who sat through the past 6 years at a regional are now positioned to advance to the Majors. Historically the people just now getting their ratings will also sit out the next slowdown at those same regionals until the next upswing comes along, unless they get their time and get out quick. But all of this is of course speculation. The thing to always remember is that it is cyclical. If you get caught in a bad place, just stay cool and build your time. The next upswing is on it's way.

I spent three years flying a 172 waiting to go fly checks so I could build multi time to get to a regional. I didn't think things would ever turn around. Now regionals are hiring with ultra low times and my peers are going to Majors. Fly if you want to fly, and let the future work itself out. You will know what to do when the time comes. If you are in it for the right reasons, getting stuck in a 172 for three years ain't so bad.