NMuir

Of course there is a shortage, but the shortage is on the low (less-experienced) end of the labor market. There are simply not enough pilots to fly all of the flights that the market needs flown.

Regionals have raised pay considerably, and it still isn't fixing the problem. Even if they started FOs at $150k/yr there would not be enough pilots in the next few years to fill the slots.

There is a big buffer that is empty, and it is going to get a lot worse. To fix it:

- pay needs to increase (currently in progress)
- the 1500 hour rule needs to be reduced or eliminated
- the mandatory retirement age needs to be raised or eliminated
- cost of training needs to decrease

Any one of those coming in to reality will not solve the problem, all of them have to happen in order for the pilot shortage to meet levels of demand

NMuir

Many of the rules that are not safety related, and even some of the indirect that are.

NMuir

Artificially. But they also create shortages, as seen here.




Maybe, it depends on how supply and demand.

The way it was seemed to work ok. Or perhaps some sort of merit/skills based test at 500 hrs. Dunno really, but the more regulation the government piles on, the worse it gets.

Eventually profits will decrease and/or ticket prices will increase and we'll start to see some elasticity of demand due to higher prices.

2StgTurbine

Um.. no it didn't. I'm going out on a limb and assume that you are one of the people who think the 1500 hour rule "hurt" your career. If that is the case, then I can understand your frustration, but history has proven that regionals will hire any one when they need to and a 250 hour pilot will pay to be an FO in an RJ. You just haven't been around long enough to see companies compromise safety to make a buck or a new pilot throw another pilot under the bus just to get ahead.

2StgTurbine

That would be a waste. I have probably only met 1 pilot who was good enough to be an effective FO at 500 hours. I have plenty of experince as an FO, captain, airline pilot, charter pilot, and current CFI. Trust me, even the best 1500 pilot still has a lot to learn when the start flying a jet professionally. They might do a great job 99.999% of the time. but that 0.001% of the time, their lack of acutal experince will affect safety.

I have even seen someone's career ruined becuase he assumed that meeting the minimum flight time for upgrade was the same as being qualifed. If he had delayed that upgrade by 6 months he would have had the oppurtunity to have an experinced captain teach him an important lesson before he started flying with new FOs.

Flyhayes

One could argue that the major airlines caused artificially low wages by whipshawing regionals against each other. Which in turn created a vacuum within the pilot pipe line. Which is now finally starting to self correct itself.

Using the 1500 hr rule really is a weak argument. Looking at the history within the industry, the 400 hr FO was just a blip on the radar. In the past, pilots needed well over 1500 hrs just to be considered at the regional level.

AgentSmith

The second there is a REAL pilot shortage, the airlines will push through the Multi-Crew Pilot license. (or whatever it was called)

In the mean time, keep dreaming.

Stihlsaw

If you spent $60-90K to get your ratings you got screwed!

2StgTurbine

That is a realistic cost these days. I constructed a bare bones syllabus to go from private to CFI in mostly a 152 and the price is $30,000 (and that is without the cost of the CFI).

Stihlsaw

Get **** out of here?!?! Really?? I did my private for less than $3000 in the early 90's Did the Instrument for around $14-1500? Did my COMM in less than a week!

Now I have to admit I did the PPL and then just flew for fun for a while before I decided to pursue a career so I had some TT built up