REAL timeline & quantities of E-175’s??
 

A lot has happened as QX has taken on 175’s and there’s plenty some conflicting info. From what’s visible to you all on the inside, what’s your best guess/projection about the real (not recruiting pitch...) timeline for all 175’s to be on property? Also, how many total 175’s do you see ultimately at QX? I know there’s 30-ish firm 175 orders with options for 30-ish more, but some of QX’s flying just seems like a lot better fit for Q400’s than the jet so seems unlikely that QX will go all 175.

QX looks like a really good situation in many ways, but all the Q400’s concerns me with respect to career progression (i.e., there’s too many getting 121 jet time at other regional airlines for that not to have some impact on career progression). But, it also seems the point could be moot by the time I’m 121-eligible, depending on 175 integration timeline & total quantity.

Seems like perfectly reasonable questions but I doubt that anyone will be able to give you any reliable answers. Whatever the plan is/was, it seems like it has a whole lot of moving parts that are not currently predictable, everything from how well the Alaska/Virgin merger works out economically (and politically) the future price of Jet-A, as well as the general shortages of eligible and/or desirable candidates for hire by the regionals, how aggressively SWA and Delta try to push into areas now flow by AAG, how well the general economy performs, and a dozen other things that are similarly unknowable. While this seems to be a time of real opportunity for people who meet the criteria for entry into the 121 world, there are still a lot of unknowns. And for the most important unknowns, no one is hiding the answers from you, they simply don't know either.

I understand completely - I may have worded my original questions poorly, but I'm just looking for 'best guesses' from those with better overall situational awareness & understanding of how AAG/QX (possibly OO) management tends to think than what I have currently!

Unfortunately there is no transparency. However, it is easy to read between the lines once you understand AG mgmt behavior. We know that AG is expecting tuff times in the foreseeable future. Hence the AS hiring freeze and deferred aircraft orders. Deferring orders is important because it lowers capital commitment which directly helps profit margins. That is a big one for the shareholders. QX is going to take on just enough E175s to do the short Q400 routs. These short routs are bread and butter for AS profits. They are what fill the AS 737s. However, Sky West will not do these short routs because they are not profitable for them. Cost of seat mile is too high and maintenance costs soar. Hence the value of QX to AG. QX has no choice. They do what AG tells them to do. AG finds it more cost effective to farm out all of the longer routs to Sky West. And Sky West will gladly take all of them. And that’s where the remainder of QX E175 orders will be deferred. Farming to Sky West both decreases cost and keeps capital commitment down. A win/win for AG.
I think smart money says just a couple more E175s will come onto QX property.

Odd, Interviewing in 3 weeks..

Only if you are interviewing at AS. QX is hiring street captains.

Okay. But I'm interviewing with Horizon.

Ive got a QX interview scheduled too. Probably going to cancel it though. I cant find anything super compelling about QX at this point as compared with their competition.

"Just a couple more" E175's...period/for long haul? Or "just a couple more" until...year end 2018? year end 2019?

Makes a lot of sense that SkyWest wouldn't touch the short routes for financial reasons. What is AG's incentive to get QX E175's onto these short routes instead of Q400's, which seem like they'd be more efficient operationally on short routes? (Increased capacity to feed AS?)

OO does plenty of short routes... sea-yvr/psc/pdx. And tons of short inter California... the real reason is support. Look at OO MX basses. If a QX plane breakes in MKE... They are screweed. OO has a mx base there. Same for all the DAL east coast flying... I agree with the statement that more then 30 Ejets at QX is iffy right now.. AS is in buyers remorse over VX and to much capacity....