How does coronavirus affect QX?
 

Hard to read Tilden’s video yesterday. He mentioned furloughs as well. What are the chances? How much would be cut? Not sure how this will play out as someone whose about 70% seniority.

They would most likely offer reduced credit lines or voluntary time off without pay as a first measure. Furlough would be the last resort. Alaska has 1.5b in cash reserves and the ability to borrow an additional 2.5b using aircraft as collateral.

I'd expect to see the reduced credit / TOWP offers by the end of this week or next week.

Both Snacky and I have survived two rounds of furloughs, one after 9/11 and the second one in 2009-2010. It's difficult to implement furloughs in less than about 60 days, and it doesn't make economic sense for the company to furlough someone unless the furlough lasts 6-12 months or more. The company's first move will be to reduce the schedule and offer time off without pay.

Personally, I'd like to see reduced credit lines. I've spent most of the last 20 summers working my tail off, and some "down" time might be just the thing. I don't know how the company feels about reduced credit lines. Historically, the flight attendants have had more access to these than the pilot group.

Any guess as to how "deep" the furloughs go is just a guess. If the falloff in traffic lasts more than about 2-3 months, I'd expect around 15-20% of our pilot group to go out on leave or furlough.

Ironically, the mostly-domestic airlines such as Southwest and Alaska may survive this downturn better than a lot of carriers that do international flying.

More than likely Alaska will furlough before Horizon.

Alaska management has always been "re-active" rather than proactive. Look for some poorly thought-out decisions in the next few weeks.

The furloughs after 9/11 were a good example of this. We were staffed at about the right level, but management decided to lay off people just because "everyone else was doing it". As a result, some of the furloughees had barely made it home when they were recalled. Some people were off for only one month, others for as long as four months.

The furloughs in 2009 went much deeper. Some pilots were out for up to two years. In addition to the 80 or 90 people that got furloughed, about 50 or so junior captains got downgraded.

The company needs to think this through before furloughing anyone. For a start, it would be reasonable to expect pilots, flight attendants, mechanics, and other work groups to use an elevated amount of sick leave for the next few months. We might end up in a situation where we have enough business to run a reduced schedule, but not enough pilots or flight attendants to operate the schedule.

Just accepted a late April start date. Debating on holding on to my current job or just going full send and hoping for the best.

Keep the start date, but I would definitely keep your current job.

Keep current job and move start date is my suggestion. Don't burn QX bridge and stay with a safe job

Is that the Q or the E ?

The Q
filler